Creating spaces for science-policy dialogue:
Experiences from the CCAFS Future scenarios project
November 1st 2017 – Webinar CCAFS
Marieke Veeger - Scenarios and policy researcher - mveeger@uci.ac.cr
UCI - CCAFS

• Six global regions: East and West Africa, South and South
East Asia, Central America and the Andes
• Objective: to generate socioeconomic and climate
scenarios to support decisionmakers in the formulation of
robust plans, policies, investments and institutional
arrangements for agriculture and livestock to confront
climate change under changing circumstances
• Demand driven: key public /private/research create
scenarios and define what they need to be used for
The CCAFS future scenarios project

Scenarios: an approach to manage uncertainty
• Multiple stories about the future, told in words, images or
numbers
• CCAFS scenarios: based on drivers of change for agriculture,
food security, environment and livelyhoods
• Colaboration with IFPRI and IIASA to model scenarios
• Created by key public/private/research stakeholders of multiple
disciplines
• … What if?
Ilustrations of emission reduction scenarios in Costa Rica. Credit: Laura Astorga, 2015
Hipster republic
Storm without wáter
Without rules – no paradise

Participatory scenario guided policy making
From regional to sub-national scale
Workshop 2 days (2014)
Scenarios analisis to robust a national
climate change policy
Regional scenarios
Broad scope: agriculture, food security,
environment and livelihoods - 2050
National scenarios
Scope adapted to
policy indicators
2030 or 2050
Sub-national
scenarios
Workshop 3 days (2013)
30 regional cc experts
public-private-research sector
Workshop 2 days (2015)
Sub-national or local plans for climate
change adaptation
Honduras- Vietnam
Scenarios creation
Scenarios use
Scenarios use (optional)
Modelling Globiom / IMPACT

Global team – regional coordinators - highly connected
• Slack but also email, Skype. Sometimes face to face
• Exchanging what works and what doesn´t / support eachother
• Co-design of proceses
Continuous feedback of advances in foresight & scenarios
in policy making and cc governance
• From consultancy based to stakeholder based (participatory)
• From resource intensive to resource efficient (in time and
funding)
• Polinization across institutes and research projects
• Environmental Change Institute (Oxford): design methodology
• Transmango EU - Seeds of Good Anthropocenes: participatory game
development to support policy formulation
• Codesign of proceses: policymakers now leading own scenario exercises
Bridging the science – policy gap

Support to Costa Rica´s NDC – 2017
Inter-institutional agreement MAG-MINAE to reduce emissions
• National development Plan - NDC
• Emission contribution of agriculture and livestock sector
(AFOLU)
Goals:
 A step further then an emission goal: what conditions does the
sector need to transform towards a resilient low carbon sector?
 Particultar interest in involving private sector: High emission
agriculture corporations (coffee, livestock, sugarcane, banana,
rice)
Addressing the needs of policy makers

Love in
times of
hunger
The
promised
land
In lack of
dogs –
dance with
cats
An
uncomfortable
truth
Participatory
scenarios
development
Scenarios
analisis
Agriculture and
livestock Vision 2030
Development
of long term
vision
Formulation of
agreement
MAG - MINAE
Meeting
advisors
MAG
Meeting
MAG
MINAE
INTER-INSTITUTIONAL AGREEMENT MAG-MINAE
Modeling
Signing of
agreement
COP23 Bonn

Help dissolve the perceived distance towards science
• An informal and professional working relationship makes the
difference
Involving policymakers in your thinking process is a learning process
for them
Knowlegde is a common good – share your learnings and failures –
and write about them
Conclusions