This presentation was given to DfID (Department for International Development) by Ciniro Costa Jr, CCAFS, on November 25, 2020.

1. Findings and recommendations to the
Africa Regional Department
Ciniro Costa Jr
c.costajr@cgiar.org
Climate change impacts of the UK Department for International
Development’s (DfID) commercial agriculture portfolio

2. GHG emissions and removals assessment
of DfID’s commercial agriculture portfolio
AgDevCo - Ghana
(agroforestry, soil and
forestry management)
LFSP – Zimbabwe
(livestock and
soil management)
MADE - Ghana
(soil and fertiliser
management)
AgDevCo - Mozambique
(livestock)
CSAZ – Zambia
(soil management
and post-harvest losses)
NuTEC - Uganda
(livestock and
soil management)
PropCom Maikarfi - Nigeria
(soil management and
avoided deforesttation)
LIFT_NUTSEM – Myanmar
(irrigated rice and
fertiliser management)
• Seven programmes across eight countries

3. GHG emissions and removals assessment
of DfID’s commercial agriculture portfolio
Beef Cattle
2%
Goats
1%
Poultry
97%
Livestock herd size (25.6 Mi heads)
Maize
54%
Rice
12%
Paddy Rice
3%
Sorghum
15%
Cotton
9%
Groundnuts
5%
Soybean
1%
Sugar bean
1% Cocoa
0.5%
Crop area (1.0 Mha)
• 24 value chains associated with an area of ~ 4 million ha

4. Estimating net GHG emissions: Rapid
assessment
Step 1
Collect data
(farm activities)
Step 2
GHG and carbon
stock change
estimates
Rapid assessment
• Used interviews and literature reviews to
identify extent of activities
• Indicates the magnitude of net GHG effects
among field activities, cropping systems or
value chains
Caveats
• Carbon stock change (occur over 20 years)
• Land use change
Step 3
Programme
feedback

5. 0.95
1.38
0.20 0.25
1.90
0.95
0.75
0.52 0.42
-0.58 -0.64 -0.67 -0.69 -0.82
-1.03
-1.33
-1.62
-5.46
Sorghum
M
aize
Sugarbean
Groundnuts
Upland
rice
Soybean
Cotton
Paddyrice
Cocoa
Programmes’ interventions have reduced
emissions and increased crop productivity
Changes in net
GHG emissions
(tCO2e/ha/y)
Changes
in productivity
(t/ha/y)
*negative values represent reduction
**values for livestock meat were not assessed due to the lack of data collected on livestock production and productivity
• Changes in farmers’ practices enhance crop production
while reducing net GHG emissions

6. -10.66
-0.67 -0.45 -0.23 -0.14 -0.02 -0.001
-5.80
-1.50 -1.30 -0.88
0.45 0.29 0.17 0.14 0.05 0.05 0.003
Reduced
deforest. im
proved
cookstoves
Reduced
N-Fertilizer use
(im
proved
seeds)
Reduced
post-harvestloss (im
proved
storage) - m
aize
Im
proved
water m
anag. in
paddy rice
Reducing burning of crop
residues
Reduced
diesel use (im
proved
tillage practices)
Im
proved
goat breeding/feeding
Agroforestry im
provem
ents
M
inim
um
tillage
M
anure application
Good
agronom
ic practices
N-Fertiliser (urea)use
Goat (increased
herd)
Lim
ing
Burningcrop
residues
N-M
anure
application
Diesel(m
echanisaton)
Poultry (increased
herd)
Net GHG emissions
(tCO2e/ha/y or tCO2e/animal/year)
Agricultural interventions
• Across programmes soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration outweighed
increases in GHG emissions by five times
Avoided emissions Carbon
sequestration
GHG emissions

7. Case studies: Maize production in
African countries
Total net change in GHG
emissions (tCO2e/ha/y)
Net changes in GHG sources and sinks (tCO2e/ha/y)
*Negative values represent emission reduction
Zambia
• Agriculture intensification may promote soil C sequestration that partly offsets
input-related emissions
• Avoided food loss can significantly avoid increased GHG emissions while
enhancing food security
-1.50
-0.13 -0.02
0.07
-0.45
Improved
practices, crop
rotation,
minimum tillage
Burning
reduction Diesel use Liming
Avoided food
loss
-1.58
-0.45 Avoided
losses
Ag
Practices
-2.03
Avoided
food
loss
-1.58
-0.45 Avoided
losses
Ag
Practices
-2.03
-0.08
(without C seq)

8. Case studies: Maize production in
African countries
-0.24
12.0
-1.34
10.9
Without With
Current
Expected
deforestation
-0.88
0.14 0.05
0.45
12.2
-1.50
-0.14
Improved
practices
(minimum tillage
expected)
Burning residues
(expected
reduction) Diesel use
N-fertilizer use
(urea) Deforestation
Ghana
*Negative values represent emission reduction
0.64 | 0.36
(without C seq)
Net changes in GHG sources and sinks (tCO2e/ha/y)
• Emissions from deforestation outweigh mitigation generated from agricultural
interventions
• Multiple factors drive LUC and so impacts cannot be directly attributed to
programme interventions alone
Total net change in GHG
emissions (tCO2e/ha/y)

9. Sustainable intensification
• Sustainable intensification increases crop or livestock production and may
reduce land use change and related ecological impacts
• Intensification practices, however, are not necessarily aligned with LED
• Intensification of crop or livestock productivity can reduce GHG emissions
per unit of product, but increases overall emissions (e.g., use of fertilizers)
• Intensification can increase emissions where it drives agricultural expansion
in high carbon stock areas
Totalarea (seven
programmes)
Increase in
productivity
Potential land sparing
across programmes
Mha t/ha Mha
Totalpotential land
sparing (Mha)
4.20 up to 200% 4.09
Expected scenario (at programme end)

10. Recommendations for enhancing emission
reduction and productivity resilience
Guidance for low-emission
development:
(1) Avoid land use change
(2) Improve production efficiency
(3) Offset emissions with carbon storage
(4) Refine monitoring and reporting to
capture emission-relevant
information (e.g., amount of N-fert. applied,
livestock number, crop/pasture area size and
productivity).
Nutrient management
N-fixing crops / legumes
No-tillage
Improved feed and manure
management
Avoid
land conversion
Water management
Improved seeds
GHG reductions
Cover crops
Agroforestry
Grazing optimization
Silvopastoral
Enhancing C sequestration
Land restoration
Residue
management
LIVESTOCK
PADDY RICE
CROPS
LAND USE CHANGE

11. Thank you!
For more information contact:
Ciniro Costa Jr C.Costajr@cgiar.org
Lini Wollenberg Lini.Wollenberg@uvm.edu
Resources:
• MRV Platform for agriculture: https://www.agmrv.org
• SAMPLES: https://samples.ccafs.cgiar.org
• CCAFS website: https://ccafs.cgiar.org