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Climate change and agricultulture wfp side event durban

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Short presntation setting the scene for the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security

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Climate change and agricultulture wfp side event durban

  1. 1. COP 17 Durban, Dec 2011Living with extremes – what the science says Bruce Campbell, Director, CGIAR Climate (CCAFS)
  2. 2. Three key messages1. Agriculture and food systems need to be totally transformed2. Extremes can be expected in many forms3. There are solutions, ….
  3. 3. Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change  13 scientists from around the world  Identify and promote policy actions to achieve sustainable agriculture, food security and poverty reduction while delivering climate change adaptation and mitigation
  4. 4. The food security challenge • 1 billion undernourished • 1 billion more mouths to feed in 14 years • Up to 60-70% more food needed by 2050 Asia Africa
  5. 5. The adaptation challenge2 PROBLEMATIC • Increased floods and storms • Shortage of water resources • Impacts on food production at low latitudes • Greater depth of seasonal permafrost thaw DISASTROUS° • A 16 °C increase in the Arctic • Substantial impact on major crops • Around 1 billion additional people experience water scarcity • Extensive coastal flooding as sea levels rise
  6. 6. The adaptation challenge….. Length of growing period (%) >20% loss 2090; 14 climate 5-20% loss models No change 5-20% gain >20% gain Four degree riseThornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS
  7. 7. The “footprint” challenge • Agriculture contributes nearly a third of GHGs • ¾ of these emissions come from developing countries
  8. 8. Food Mitigation Security AdaptationMeridian Institute, 2011
  9. 9. Message #1:Agriculture and food systems need to be totally transformed
  10. 10. Extreme events
  11. 11. • Pose greater threat to livelihoods and food security than the long-term changes in averages.• Result in crisis and hardship; but just as important is “lost opportunity” People living in dryland areas - 2 billion People dependent on degrading land - 1.5 billion
  12. 12. What is Predicted? • It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation ….. will increase in the 21st century…. • There is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the 21st centurySource: IPCCNovember 2011
  13. 13. Projected Changes in ExtremePrecipitation West Africa East Africa South Africa50 50 5020 20 2010 10 105 5 53 3 3 c. 2050 c. 2100 c. 2050 c. 2100 c. 2050 c. 2100 IPCC 2011
  14. 14. Number of Natural Disasters in Sub-Saharan Africa (1975-2005)Source: The Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters/IEG World Bank
  15. 15. Source: The Center forResearch on the Epidemiologyof Disasters
  16. 16. • Bangladesh (2007): – 1.6 million acres of cropland damaged – 25% winter rice crop destroyed• Myanmar (2008) – 4 m storm surge inundated coastal regions up to 40 km inland – Soil salination made 50,000 acres of rice cropland unfit for planting
  17. 17. Weather catastrophes Overall losses Insured lossesSource: Munich RE NatCatSERVICE
  18. 18. Message #2: Extremes canbe expected in many forms
  19. 19. Message #3 There are solutions………. Source: IPCC November 2011
  20. 20. www.ccafs.cgiar.orgSign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate 20

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