Claessens toa modeling_workshopamsterdam_2012-04-23
A novel methodology for ex ante assessment ofclimate change adaptation strategies: examples from East Africa Lieven Claessens John Antle, Jetse Stoorvogel, Roberto Valdivia, Philip Thornton, Mario Herrero
Research methodology:Tradeoff Analysis model for Multi Dimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD) Bio-economic model for integrated assessment of agricultural systems Assessing environmental and economic sustainability of technologies and policies. Linking stakeholders with research teams. Using quantitative impact assessment tools and models. Population of farms (variation), not a ‘representative farm’ Simulates CC impacts and benefits of adaptation.
TOA-MD for climate change impact assessmentfarmers, extension workers, local community leaders Income (poverty) • Public stakeholders Malnutrition • Policy makers • Scientists Technologies: e.g. dual-purpose sweet potato, drought resistant potato, improved livestock breeds/management,… Identify indicators and scenarios Policies: e.g. investment in irrigation, infrastructure, fertilizer subsidies, greenhouse gas mitigation Coordinated Disciplinary Research policies,.. • Downscale GCM and RCM output • Prepare crop and livestock models • Prepare economic data and models • Prepare environmental data and models • Set up scenarios for simulation • Implement analysis using TOA software Evaluate results with stakeholders
Disciplinary research:Global Circulation Models (GCM) and Regional Climate Model (RCM) data Downscaled GCM + emission scenarios (150 - 300 km to 25 - 10 km) RCM: REMO model for East Africa (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg)Daily data,1950 – 2050, 2 IPCC emission scenarios (A1B and B1) Downscaled data as inputs for crop growth, livestock and pest models
Disciplinary research:Crop and livestock models Crop growth simulation models for simulating CC impacts Parameterization of crop models with existing or prospective technologies Development and inclusion of pest related model components (late blight, potatotuber moth,..) + vector population parameters sensitive to CC CC effects on livestock productivity
Disciplinary research:Economic models Economic model uses distribution (variability) of economic data from the farmpopulation (resource and land allocation, prices of inputs and outputs, net returns,…) Changes in crop and livestock productivity drive economic models, ‘adoption’(economic feasibility) and poverty rates.
Disciplinary research:Scenario construction and TOA-MD software Scenarios: current system with perturbed climate and adaptation strategies Evaluation of stakeholder defined impact indicators - changes in farm income - poverty measures - nutrition and food security indicators - environmental indicators
Results from completed and ongoing work Project study sites in East Africa: Kenya: Embu, Mbeere, Machakos, Makueni, Vihiga Uganda: Soroti, Kabale, Pallisa, Nakaseke Ethiopia: Holetta, Shashemene
Results from completed and ongoing work Some results for Kenya:Mixed (crop-livestock) semi-subsistence agricultural systems, high poverty rates:VIHIGA, western province KenyaMACHAKOS-MAKUENI, eastern province Kenya
Materials and Methods:SURVEY DATA- Survey data (quantities and prices) on inputs (such as seeds, labor, fertilizer,manure), outputs (crop yields, milk production and land areas), and farm management.- 120 farms for each study area.CLIMATE PROJECTIONS & EFFECTS ON PRODUCTIVITY- 2050, IPCC 4AR, WorldCLIM, combinations of GCMs HadCM3 & ECHam4 withSRES scenarios A1FI & B1 (very high and low emissions).- Projections from RCM (REMO, MPI-M) currently being analyzed.- DSSAT crop growth models for maize and beans. Estimations for other crops.- Livestock: decline in milk yield due to increased heat stress and decreased farmproduced feed.
Materials and Methods:EXAMPLES OF ADAPTATION STRATEGIES TESTED- Improved, drought tolerant maize variety.- Introduction of dual-purpose sweet potato with varying yield levels.- Improved livestock breeds and feed quality (high crude protein content sweet potatovines).
TOA-MD Model setup:• Stratify population if useful (e.g. dairy, farm size, irrigation,…)• Systems characterized by different activities (crops, livestock, aquaculture)• Parameterize base and alternative systems with survey and simulation results• CC effects on productivity in alternative system• Simulate impacts of different adaptation strategies• Socio-economic scenarios: Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs)
Some TOA-MD results for Vihiga and Machakos:• 82% of farms in Vihiga and 60% in Machakos negatively impacted by CC• Poverty rates from 62% to 69% for Vihiga, from 73% to 78% for Machakos• Introduction of improved maize very limited effect in Vihiga but reducingnegatively affected farms to 49% in Machakos• Low yielding DP sweet potato offsets CC effects in Machakos• Vihiga needs high yielding DP sweet potato and improved livestock breedsto offset CC effects• Dairy farmers have highest incomes and benefit most from adaptation
Discussion & Conclusion• Assumptions had to be made in climate change and adaptation scenarios.• Uncertainty in GCMs, SRES scenarios, downscaling and crop growth andlivestock simulation models.• Climate variability and pests and diseases not yet included in analysis.• Adoption rates based on economic feasibility, providing upper bound for realadoption.• The TOA-MD approach offers a rapid integrative analysis for exploring optionsand timely advice to farmers and policymakers.