Challenge Program then CGIAR Research ProgramTheme Leaders spread across CG system and the global change community in advanced research institutesNew way of working – deliberately networked
Culmination of perhaps a decade of work but has come out under CCAFS led by Phil ThorntonWill generate series/runs of simulated future climate data (daily temperature and rainfall) for any coordinates on the planetThese data crucial for e.g. estimating future crop suitability/yields/failuresAlso have made available set of downscaled climate data sets – strong demand from developing countries and over 200 downloads
Livestock 82% Land use change 14%, total, fertilizer .0%, burning (Ch4 and N20) 2%500 m resolution HIGH uncertainty likely four East African countries account for 70% of the total emission from the nine countries, dominated by the emissions from land use change and livestock in Ethiopia – total emissions that we report here are comparable to those reported by each country in their National Communications, though as expected our estimates are higher reflecting likely increases in agriculture production since the time of their reports (Table 11). However, the estimates for different gases vary, for example the nitrous oxide emissions reported in the National Communications for the focal countries and year (< 11,000 t CO2e/yr for Kenya to about 6 million t CO2e/yr for Ethiopia) bear no resemblance to the estimates we obtained in Table 11.
7 projects In collaboration with Ecoagriculture, ICRAF: Cocoa Carbon Initiative, Ghana Vi Agroforestry, CARE, TIST, Kenya Humbo Reforestation Project, World Vision, EthiopiaEcotrust, NFA, Uganda
New approaches to dissemination given CC,Linking national land use planning to interventions, Enhancing research capacity, Improve links: research, policy, community level
CCAFSobjectives 1. Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation, risk management and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems. 2. Support agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of climate issues inagricultural policies, at all levels.
thepartnershipCGIAR +Earth System Science Partnership(ESSP).
Climate variability and change ImprovedTechnologies, practices, policies environmentaland capacity enhancement: benefits1. Adaptation to progressive climate Improvedchange livelihoods2. Adaptation through managingclimate risk Improved 3. Pro-poor climate change food security mitigation 4. Integration for decision making Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, NRM & food systems
Place-based field and policy work Indo-Gangetic Plains:West Africa: Parts ofSenegal, Mali, Bur India, Bangladeskina East Africa: h, NepalFaso, Ghana, and Tanzania, Ugan Regional programNiger da, Kenya, and leader: Ethiopia Pramod AggarwalRegional programleader: Regional programRobert Zougmoré leader: James Kinyangi
Climatic analogue tool identifies where theclimate today is a likely analogue to the futureclimate at another location. Evaluate whether successful adaptation options in one place are transferrable to a future climatic analogue site.
ImprovingDelivery of Seasonal Forecasts What CCAFS outputs? •Knowledge and tools for effective delivery of seasonal forecasts • Increased understanding of the ways in which farmers incorporate climate information into decision making Why is it useful? By teaching farmers how to interpret and use tailored probabilistic seasonal forecasts, we can build upon indigenous risk management strategies as well as the innovative capacity of farmers to respond to climate variation. We also learn more about how new technologies can add value to farmers’ decision making processes.
Integration for decision making: ™ What CCAFS outputs? A tool to generate daily data that are characteristic of future climatologies for any point on the globe Why is it useful? To aid planning & drive agricultural impact models to inform resource allocationhttp://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/
The AMKN PlatformThe Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal foraccessing and sharing current agricultural adaptation and mitigation knowledge. Initial content • Location and description of the 36 CCAFS benchmark sites • 31 video testimonials • 13 stories reflecting realities on the ground • 18 photo sets (>400 photographs).
Better agricultural GHG estimates 1,000 tCO2e/yr, from land-use change, livestock, nitrogen fertilizer consumption and fires in grazing lands (CCAFS-Winrock Study: Brown et al 2011) Land-Use Nitrogen Grazing Area Tota Region Country Livestock Total Change Fertilizer Burned from NEast Africa Ethiopia 7,339 41,966 339 1,254 50,897 32,7 Kenya 1,812 11,988 323 232 14,356 12,0 Tanzania 1,833 13,935 42 1,736 17,546 28,0 Uganda 1,112 6,204 18 524 7,858 5,7 Subtotal 12,097 74,093 722 3,745 90,657 78,6West Africa Burkina Faso 273 8,779 18 306 9,377 4,5 Ghana 1,664 1,865 55 491 4,076 4,6 Mali 440 9,270 64 241 10,015 7,0 Niger 31 10,405 14 9 10,460 6,2 Senegal 369 3,364 84 249 4,066 4,5 Subtotal 2,778 33,683 235 1,297 37,993 26,9 Grand Total 14,874 107,776 957 5,043 128,649 105,
Mapped distribution of increases incropland area for East Africa 2001 - 2006 Brown et al, 2011
Improving measurement further• Reduce scale of analysis and focus on key agricultural areas of each country• Get higher resolution and more accurate data for land cover/land use and area burned• Improve monitoring: – number of ruminant animals – quantity of N fertilizer used – carbon stocks of burned areas of grazing lands
Improving benefits from carbon market projects involving farmerLessons- Real benefits from yields, not payments ($2/yr or less)- Need to decrease costs and risks: pre-existing institutions, upfront finance critical- Link to supporting interventions (efficient stoves, new fuelwood species >protect carbon trees)- Monitoring livelihoods not most projects’ priority7 projects In collaboration with Ecoagriculture, ICRAF:• Cocoa Carbon Initiative, Ghana• Vi Agroforestry, CARE, TIST, Kenya•Humbo Reforestation Project, World Vision, Ethiopia•Ecotrust, NFA, Uganda
Role of agriculture in REDD+2011Source:Kissinger
Policy Needs: 2011 Nat’l Workshops Ghana, Mali, Kenya and Ethiopia)
Foundational Needs• Basic data for climate predictions, GHG emissions, impacts• Baselines and inventory of existing practices• Potential of agriculture for adaptation and mitigation• Priority sectors or interventions for green development• Reduction targets• Food security, adaptation and mitigation indicators• Tools for measuring GHG emissions and soil carbon• Identifying incentives for action: adaptation and mitigation
Policy priorities• Decision support tools• Mainstream CC into development planning and budget• Build on existing knowledge and projects: put existing technologies in to wider practice• Enhance intersectoral, multiscale communication, negotiation and coordination
Big policy questions• What are drivers of climate change and how to influence them? Separate effects of climate change from other drivers of poverty, food insecurity and emissions.• Economic implications of options to support climate change?• How to change attitudes and behavior?
Other CCAFS mitigation research• Baseline emissions and scenarios–site level• GHG quantification - Simple and cost effective MRV (w/MICCA) - Livestock system inventory methods - Regional capacity building• Incentives (w/MICCA) - Costs, benefits and adoption barriers - Delivery mechanisms• Intensification of cocoa farming to reducedeforestation ( IITA, Ghana)
How to quantify, assess and communicate tradeoffs? Soil carbon contentAfforestation policy 2 Food exchange 1 Forest cover 0 Increase -1Food local production -2 Species richness Decrease -3 Food nutritional value Groundwater recharge Food affordability GHG mitigation
Some questionsIs agricultural mitigation practicable bysmallholders?How can we move towards low climate impactagricultural development?What incentives and incentive deliverymechanisms are required to support mitigationby smallholders?How can we develop more integrated and holisticapproaches to MRV on farms and landscapes?