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The agricultural trilemma

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Presentation by Bruce Campbell, Program Director CCAFS

Ottawa, September 2011

Published in: Education, Technology
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The agricultural trilemma

  1. 1.
  2. 2. Outline<br />The three challenges<br />Accelerated and transformative adaptation<br />Pro-poor mitigation<br />
  3. 3. Challenge 1:<br />Food security<br />
  4. 4. Challenge 2: Adaptation<br />
  5. 5. Length of growing season is likely to decline..<br />Length of growing period (%) <br />>20% loss<br />5-20% loss<br />No change<br />5-20% gain<br />>20% gain<br />To 2090, taking 18 climate models<br />Four degree world<br />Thornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS<br />
  6. 6. Food prices are likely to increase…<br />% price increase 2010-2050<br />Maize Rice Wheat<br />Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS<br />
  7. 7. Climate change will add greatly to price increases…<br />% price increase 2010-2050<br />Maize Rice Wheat<br />Nelson et al., 2010 IFPRI/CCAFS<br />
  8. 8. Challenge 3: Reducing the agricultural footprint<br />
  9. 9. Safe operating space<br />Ocean acidification<br />Role of Agriculture<br />Nitrogen cycle<br />Climate change<br />Phosphorous cycle<br />Current status<br />Biodiversity loss<br />Global freshwater use<br />Change in land use<br />Rockström et al. (2009);<br /> Bennett et al. (in prep.) <br />
  10. 10. Food Security<br />Fertiliser subsidies<br />Mitigation<br />Restoration of degraded lands <br />Adaptation<br />Meridian Institute 2011<br />
  11. 11. 1. Accelerated and transformative adaptation<br />
  12. 12. Australian wine industry<br /><ul><li>Relocation of grape production or wineries to cooler regions
  13. 13. Shifts to other crops
  14. 14. Diversification</li></ul>Parks et al CSIRO<br />
  15. 15. Farms of the future<br /><ul><li>Climate analogues
  16. 16. Farmer networks
  17. 17. Policy framework</li></li></ul><li>2. Pro-poor Mitigation<br />
  18. 18. ….. are there green development pathways that don’t compromise food security ?<br />Wassmann et al. (2010) IRRI/CCAFS<br />
  19. 19. Growth in carbon market<br />
  20. 20. <ul><li>Monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV)
  21. 21. Incentives and institutional models
  22. 22. Work on numerous technical practices..</li></li></ul><li>Thank you<br />www.ccafs.cgiar.org<br />sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins <br />

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