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3rd Africa Climate Smart Agriculture Alliance Forum: Presentation by Bruce Campbell

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Presentation by Bruce Campbell, CCAFS Program Director, at the 3rd Africa Climate Smart Agriculture Alliance Forum in Dakar, Senegal, 27–28 March 2019.

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3rd Africa Climate Smart Agriculture Alliance Forum: Presentation by Bruce Campbell

  1. 1. Bruce Campbell, Program Director Drivers of CSA adoption Photo: G. Smith (CIAT)
  2. 2. Guatemala El Salvador Honduras Nicaragua Colombia Ghana Senegal Mali Niger Burkina Faso Tanzania Kenya Ethiopia Uganda India Nepal Bangladesh Cambodia Vietnam Laos Climate-smart villages National science-policy initiatives
  3. 3. 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 Africa's urban population (billions) Massive opportunity for African farmers and food companies 250 million more mouths to feed in urban areas by 2030 UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. Africa’s annual food import bill $35 billion $110 billion by 2025 Diets are changing • Staples diversifying • Increased consumption of fruits, vegetables and animal-based products • More “fast foods” Staatz, J. and F. Hollinger (2016), OECD Publishing, Paris Africa Development Bank
  4. 4. Region No. sites Proportion of households of each type Scraping by Hanging in Stepping up Stepping out East Africa 8 32.0 42.5 13.6 12.1 West Africa 5 13.8 69.6 11.0 5.6 Thornton et al. (2018) > 5 food deficit months per year practice changes in the last 10 years involving some intensification no practice changes, increased off-farm income Standing still Situation is dire
  5. 5. • Education levels increasing • Electricity from the grid 2%39% • Cell phone ownership 71%86% • Increased use of inputs • >5 hunger months a year: 47%  36% Inputs (in the last 12 months) 2011 2018 Seed 11.5% 50.7% Fertilizer 27.1% 78.6% Pesticides 30.6% 62.9% Veterinary medicine 18.4% 24.3% Agricultural credit 6.6% 26.4% None of the above 5.9% 8.6% And not improving fast enough e.g. Northern Ghana
  6. 6. Agricultural transformation too slow….. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Ag transformation cases globally Vermeulen et al 2019 Frontiers • Ethiopia: Pastoralism to irrigated cropping • Kenya: Pastoralism to rain- fed cropping and bee- keeping • Kenya: Cattle to camels • Morocco: Wheat to fruit trees • Burkina: Switches amongst transhumance and cropping • Ethiopia: Livestock exclosures – 3 M ha • Niger: Farmer-managed tree regeneration – 5 M ha • Mozambique: Use of dual farm systems to manage risk
  7. 7. What will it take to get agricultural transformation? Fostering enabling policy and institutions Digitally enabled climate-informed services Climate-resilient and low- emission practices and technologies Innovative finance to leverage public & private sector investments Reshaping supply chains, food retail, marketing and procurement Empower farmer and consumer organizations, women and youth Dinesh et al 2018 CCAFS Infonote Campbell et al., 2018 Current Opinion
  8. 8. Support and coordination from a central authority e.g. Agricultural commercialization clusters In Ethiopia
  9. 9. e.g. Duram wheat value chain • Clustering of actors  promotes linkages; easier service delivery • Strong private sector approach • Inclusive value chain development • Productivity increase • Positive for different categories of farm size • Changes not at expense of rotation practices Biggeri et al., 2018 Food Policy
  10. 10. Solar powered irrigation as a “remunerative crop” • Sell to the grid • Sell water to other farmers • More secure irrigation water • Positive GHG implications • Limited over-pumping if incentives right • 250 billion dollar investment in rolling out 2.75 M solar irrigation pumps in India
  11. 11. Climate risk drives rural poverty Climate variability Depleted productive assets Ex-post coping strategies Extreme events “Poverty trap” Reduced average production, income
  12. 12. Climate variability Reduced average production, income Reduced investment, adoption Depleted productive assets Ex-ante risk aversion Ex-post coping strategies Extreme events Uncertainty “Poverty trap” Climate risk drives rural poverty
  13. 13. Climate variability Increased average production, income Increased investment, adoption Protected productive assets Extreme events Uncertainty Households escape poverty Climate risk drives rural poverty Climate risk management interventions
  14. 14. Evidence for climate risk management Risk management intervention Stabilize production, consumption Protect productive assets Increased investment uptake of capital, technology Improve livelihoods, welfare Stress-adapted germplasm Strong None Weak Moderate Diversified farming systems Moderate Weak None Moderate Index-based agricultural insurance None Moderate Strong Moderate Social protection Moderate Weak Moderate Strong Hansen et al., 2019
  15. 15. Climate information services • Ghana – 300,000 farmers now paying for advisories • Often in bundles with other products Burkina cowpea farmers getting advisories: • ⅓-½ of farmers change practices • 6X more use improved seeds • 55% higher gross margin
  16. 16. Transformation is needed Fostering enabling policy and institutions Digitally enabled climate-informed services Climate-resilient and low- emission practices and technologies Innovative finance to leverage public & private sector investments Reshaping supply chains, food retail, marketing and procurement Empower farmer and consumer organizations, women and youth • NDCs - Is that where we need focus? • Removing certain subsidies? • Policies around connectivity? • Import and taxation policies • Linking up energy and agric policies • Linking up health and agric policies • Basic administrative functioning to improve ease of doing business Ease of doing business New Zealand 1 Rwanda 29 Spain 30 Senegal 141 Zimbabwe 155
  17. 17. Where do we need to focus? • Getting the policies right & the markets working • Services: • Digital climate-informed advisories • Index-based insurance • Productive social safety nets • Micro-irrigation • Markets, policies, markets, policies, markets, policies
  18. 18. www.ccafs.cgiar.org b.campbell@cgiar.org @bcampbell_cgiar Thank you

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