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Breeding foresight workshop: Presentation by IFPRI

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Presentation at a workshop convened by CCAFS Learning Platform 1 in Rome, Italy, on 19-20 February 2019.

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Breeding foresight workshop: Presentation by IFPRI

  1. 1. IFPRI foresight update • Scenario analysis commissioned by USAID as input to the multi- donor initiative on Crops to End Hunger • report with USDA-ERS delivered in June 2018 • EIB presentation in August 2018, System Council document in October 2018 • IMPACT, IMPACT-SIMM (also MIRAGE, RIAPA) • Collaboration with Oxford, CSIRO, AgMIP et al. • papers on changing climate, diets, environment and health • Collaboration with other CGIAR Centers through Global Futures and PIM Cluster 1.1 Keith Wiebe, CCAFS Workshop on Breeding Foresight, Bioversity HQ, 19-20 February 2019
  2. 2. • Support for foresight community of practice and analysis through Global Futures and Strategic Foresight and PIM Cluster 1.1 • Global Food Security special issue on foresight and agriculture • 4 papers published/accepted (livestock, fish, hindsight & foresight, RTB crops) • others in the pipeline (cereals, smallholders, employment, tradeoffs) • 2018 projects exploring the demand side • animal-source foods, RTB crops, major cereals, GLDC crops • Inputs to ISPC foresight activities • Aberdeen workshop May 2018, Science Forum October 2018, System Council side event November 2018 • Support for the CGIAR Foresight Report PIM foresight update Keith Wiebe, CCAFS Workshop on Breeding Foresight, Bioversity HQ, 19-20 February 2019
  3. 3. www.cgiar.org CGIAR Foresight Report 3 • Multi-Center, multi-CRP effort • Steering committee of CGIAR Science Leaders • Stephan Weise (DDG Bioversity, Chair), Marianne Bänziger (DDG CIMMYT), Vincent Gitz (Dir FTA), Oscar Ortiz (DDG CIP), Mike Phillips (Dir FISH), Frank Place (Dir PIM), Tom Randolph (Dir LIVESTOCK), May-Guri Saethe (DDG IITA), Mark Smith (DDG IWMI), also Keith Wiebe (IFPRI), Steve Prager (CIAT) • Seeks to inform CGIAR as well as funders and national partners using a variety of approaches • Inventory & scoping, analysis, synthesis and drafting in 2019; review, revision, publication and dialog in 2020… then repeat? • Importance of process in addition to outputs • Resources… hopefully from multiple sources Keith Wiebe, CCAFS Workshop on Breeding Foresight, Bioversity HQ, 19-20 February 2019
  4. 4. Data and tools What’s available? What’s missing? • Data • Available: FAOSTAT, IPCC Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, numerous micro studies… • Missing: pasture and fodder prices, direct climate impacts on livestock… • Models • Available: global ag sector and full-economy models, IAMs, some country-level models, ex-post statistical models • Missing: modeling climate variability rather than just trends, links between PE and CGE models and between ex-post analyses and ex-ante models • Available: crop models – numerous (esp. staples), but many not calibrated globally • Missing: fruits and vegetables, pest and disease models? • Missing: gender, youth, equity dimensions • Process • Available: various initiatives for particular purposes (both qualitative & quantitative) • Missing: a systematic, transparent and on-going process for contributing, analyzing, reviewing and sharing foresight for decision making Keith Wiebe, CCAFS Workshop on Breeding Foresight, Bioversity HQ, 19-20 February 2019

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