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Breeding foresight workshop: Presentation by AbacusBio Ltd.

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Presentation at a workshop convened by CCAFS Learning Platform 1 in Rome, Italy, on 19-20 February 2019.

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Breeding foresight workshop: Presentation by AbacusBio Ltd.

  1. 1. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Make ​a difference to food production internationally using science & technology
  2. 2. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Where we work
  3. 3. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Applying science and technology to make ​a difference to agriculture Genetic Improvement Livestock Plants Aquaculture Farm Systems & Environment Application focussed Management systems Environmental management Farm management & planning Technology & Data Analytics Biological & economic scenarios Agri-tech applications System optimisation
  4. 4. ABACUSBIO LIMITED User participation in the formulation of trait priorities and breeding programs CCAFS Learning Platform 1 February 2019 Tim Byrne AbacusBio International Limited
  5. 5. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Why Create a mandate for change Prioritise R&D activities Apply monetary values to difficult traits Increase: - adoption and engagement - rates of genetic gain - rates of product development
  6. 6. ABACUSBIO LIMITED What (is different) Change the traditional economic approach to ranking tools for plant/ animal products Balance economic versus non-economic drivers of breeding priorities Quantify the views of farmers Provide insight into farmer segmentation (if any) and what drives it
  7. 7. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Method •Through an on-line survey assessment of: •Who the farmers are (demographic) •Farmer trait preferences and perceived value (1000Minds®) •“Choice patterns” (product profile) •The clustering of farmers into typologies •What is different between typologies
  8. 8. ABACUSBIO LIMITED • Factors that might influence peoples’ trait priorities: • Farm size • Location • Belief in quantitative approaches • Selection criteria • Services • Age • …anything that might influence preferences for traits Demographic
  9. 9. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trade offs in 1000Minds®
  10. 10. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trait preferences • Defining the traits • In readily known terms (more later) • Have to get direction of trait right (coffee e.g.) • Defining the trade-offs • Experienced practitioner • Taskforce/ expert panel • Pilot
  11. 11. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trade-off - Coffee
  12. 12. ABACUSBIO LIMITED • Online/ via email • Phone/ one-on-one • Group meeting (with tabs on site) • Seamless (email link or logon page) • Leverage off existing CRM • Can be anonymous • Delivered in multiple languages Survey delivery
  13. 13. ABACUSBIO LIMITED The results and analysis • Trait ranking (% preference) • A priori group analysis • PCA and cluster analysis to form typologies • What features (demographic) are distinguishable between typologies • Convert preferences to valuations
  14. 14. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Two case studies Selection index development – Dairy industry Valuing difficult traits – Ryegrass breeding
  15. 15. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Breeding objective/ selection index development Dairy industry
  16. 16. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Driving need What traits to include in selection indexes? What should the trait weightings be? Should there be multiple indexes? Development of breeding programs
  17. 17. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trade-off
  18. 18. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trade-off
  19. 19. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Dairy traits – relative preference (%) Trait Average preference Mastitis 10.61 Longevity 9.72 Fertility 9.39 Mammary 8.34 Lameness 8.24 Protein yield 7.85 Type 7.49 Feed eficiency 7.46 Calving difficulty 7.30 Temperament 6.81 Milking speed 6.35 Persistency 6.33 Live weight 4.12
  20. 20. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Dairy traits - rank
  21. 21. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Cluster groups Functional Production Type
  22. 22. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Production trait preferences
  23. 23. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Functional trait preference
  24. 24. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Type trait preferences
  25. 25. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Selection index results
  26. 26. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Difficult to value traits Ryegrass breeding
  27. 27. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Driving need Monetary values on economically difficult traits Relative weightings to apply in plant selection? Factors influencing farmers decisions Development of breeding programs
  28. 28. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Value of yield • Across the four seasons (spring, summer, autumn, winter) • Expressed in terms of its equivalent in tonnes of grain
  29. 29. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trade-off - value of yield
  30. 30. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Yield priorities High rainfall Temperate Mediterranean Spring 7% 10% 4% Summer 28% 24% 16% Autumn 33% 30% 47% Winter 32% 36% 33% • Summer yield: • Relatively more important in High rainfall zone, and less important for Mediterranean • Autumn yield: • Relatively more important for Mediterranean • Spring yield less important than other seasons
  31. 31. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Hard to value traits… • Used the value of Autumn Yield as a financial benchmark (anchor) • Enabled us to quantify the value of other traits against $Autumn Yield • Persistence (years) • Survival under adverse conditions • Summer survival • …
  32. 32. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trade-off – persistence
  33. 33. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trade-off – adverse condition survival
  34. 34. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trade-off – hot/ dry summer survival
  35. 35. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trait values –persistence/ survival High rainfall Temperate Mediterranean Autumn yield per HA ($ value per 1% preference per year) $29.1 $29.2 $27. 5 Year of persistence 4.1% 3.3% 2.0% $119 $96 $54 Guaranteed survival in adverse conditions 7.2% 10.5% 7.5% $209 $306 $206 Relatively less important in Mediterranean Relatively more important in Temperate
  36. 36. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trait values – hot/dry summer High rainfall Temperate Mediterranean Autumn yield per HA ($ value per 1% preference per year) $29.1 $29.2 $27. 5 Guaranteed survival in hot/ dry summer 18.2% 12.4% 16.5% $510 $347 $433 Relatively more important in High rainfall
  37. 37. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Trait values in context • @ $250/ tonne of grain (as presented) • Guaranteed survival in adverse conditions of $306 or the equivalent to 1.2 tonnes of grain/ ha in temperate environment • Guaranteed survival in a hot, dry summer of $510 or the equivalent of 2.1 tonnes of grain/ ha in high rainfall environment • …
  38. 38. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Principles • Trait priorities evolve over time • Response to new knowledge and industry/market demands • Surveys can be used to update and monitor farmer priorities • Engage with farmers and boost adoption • Ensure breeding programme priorities align with user needs • Opportunity to build product profiles/ selection tools by combining • Economic principles & farmer desired gains
  39. 39. ABACUSBIO LIMITED Make ​a difference to food production internationally using science & technology

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