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Bianca g empirical evidence of food security and mitigation benefits july 2011

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Presentation for Smallholder Mitigation: Mitigation Options and Incentive Mechanisms - Expert Workshop
7 - 8 July 2011


Published in: Science
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Bianca g empirical evidence of food security and mitigation benefits july 2011

  1. 1. Economics of sustainable agricultural systems E S A S Empirical evidence of food security and mitigation benefits from improved cropland management by Giacomo Branca with L. Lipper, N. McCarthy and M.C. Jolejole (Agricultural Development Economics Division, FAO) Smallholder Mitigation: Mitigation Options and Incentive Mechanisms Expert Workshop Rome, June 7-8 , 2011
  2. 2. Economics of sustainable agricultural systems E S A S Outline 1. Key research questions 2. Data and methods 3. Results 4. Discussion
  3. 3. Economics of sustainable agricultural systems E S A S 1. Key research questions Sustainable agriculture : • increases crop productivity and system resilience, without resources degradation • potential to deliver climate change mitigation co-benefits: reduced GHG emissions and increased Carbon sequestration Where to expect highest mitigation co-benefits from changes in smallholder agriculture aimed at promoting food security and CC adaptation (synergies)? What are the key barriers that prevent the adoption of “climate smart” agricultural systems (trade-offs)?
  4. 4. Economics of sustainable agricultural systems E S A S 2. Data and methods • Empirical results from lit review (CAB Abstracts, Science Direct, Science Magazine Online, ProQuest, Economist Intelligence Unit, World Bank & OECD, WOCAT technology database) Academic & grey literature (e.g. WOCAT: thesis, manuscripts and other unpublished work) •English, Spanish, Portuguese; developing countries •implementation at smallholder level: small-size farms (<1-2 ha); only a few cases medium-large scale farms •Not included: model estimations, research station experiments, on-farm field trials, studies without quantitative impact or technology packages; research experiments included only in case of long-term/ worldwide/large areas experiments •Additional lit review (qualitative) of adoption barriers
  5. 5. Economics of sustainable agricultural systems E S A S Meta-analysis: Each study result is one observation (one data point in a larger dataset containing all available information) A single publication contributed more than once if a separate study was done for different countries or if more than one crop type was studied % change of average yields with respect to the yield under conventional agriculture (results compared with control areas) Cereals Other crops Total Agronomy 28 10 38 Integrated nutrient management 24 7 31 Tillage and residue management 55 15 70 Water management 44 8 52 Agroforestry 20 6 26 Total 171 46 217 Management practice n.
  6. 6. Economics of sustainable agricultural systems E S A S Effect of improved cropland management practices: average % marginal increase of cereal yields at global level (95% confidence intervals ) 3. Results: synergies 121 79 106 115 69 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Agronomy (28) Integrated nutrient management (24) Tillage and residue management (55) Water management (44) Agroforestry (20) Management Practices Details of the Practices Cover crops Improved crop or fallow rotations Improved crop varieties Nutrient management Organic fertilization (use of compost, animal and green manure) Incorporation of crop residues, mulching Reduced/minimum/zero tillage Terraces, contour farming Water harvesting Live barriers, fences Trees on cropland Agronomy Tillage and residue management Agroforestry Water management
  7. 7. Economics of sustainable agricultural systems E S A S Dry areas 116 72 122 92 81 0 50 100 150 200 250 Agronomy (6) Integrated nutrient management (20) Tillage and residue management (42) Water management (30) Agroforestry (8) 122 118 55 164 61 0 50 100 150 200 250 Agronomy (22) Integrated nutrient management (4) Tillage and residue management (13) Water management (14) Agroforestry (12) Humid areas
  8. 8. Economics of sustainable agricultural systems E S A S 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Agronomy Tillage/residue management Water management Agroforestry % Asia and Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa Source: Henao and Baanante 2006 Asia and Pacific Average % marginal increase potential of cereal yields at regional level Sub-Saharan Africa
  9. 9. Economics of sustainable agricultural systems E S A S High mitigation & food security potential in humid areas: synergies (potential to link mitigation finance) Mitigation co-benefits smaller in dry lands – but overall impacts of changes on food security substantial (mitig. finance mainly feasible over large areas/farmers) 300 200 100 0 Dry 0 100 200 300 Agronomy Nutrient management Tillage/residue management Water management Agroforestry Moist Yield: average marginal increase (%/year) GHG reduction (tCO2e/ha/year) (graph 1ton=100%)
  10. 10. Economics of sustainable agricultural systems E S A S • SLM is key in developing “Climate-smart” productive systems: - difference between humid and dry areas and implications for climate finance - geographical differences: SLM more effective in SSA? - no effect of farm size? • Limits of the present analysis: - limited number of crops (maize and wheat), climates (warm dry/humid, no cool climates). And mainly small farms… - no observations reported negative responses (may be biased sample) - limited information on the yield variability - consistence of results differs across technologies 4. Discussion
  11. 11. Economics of sustainable agricultural systems E S A S Expand research : expand database of SLM and crop yields • include other crops and agro-environmental conditions • consider grasslands and livestock • meta-analysis of experimental data • Consider single practices instead of technology packages • correct biased regional representation - 60% in SSA • Conduct analysis at farming systems/AEZ level build databases for emission reduction coefficients by farming system/agro-ecologies identify locations/farming systems where mitigation has highest economic returns to FS & agricultural development 4. Discussion
  12. 12. Economics of sustainable agricultural systems E S A S THANK YOU for your attention!

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