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Barioni Mitigation options and actions in Brazil agriculture july 2012

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Barioni Mitigation options and actions in Brazil agriculture july 2012

  1. 1. Mitigation options and actions in Brazilian Agriculture Development of the Brazilian Agricultural NAMAs Luis Gustavo Barioni Embrapa Agricultural Informatics CCAFS – FAO NAMAs Workshop, Rome 16/07/2012
  2. 2. Historical Context
  3. 3. Identifying the Main Sources of GHG Adapted from the 1st Brazilian National Inventory (Ministry of Science and Technology, 2004) Mainly conversion of native areas into agricultural land 1994
  4. 4. Identifying Potential Sinks Increasing Soil Carbon by improving grasslands Embrapa Informática Agropecuária - Laboratório de Modelagem Agroambiental Adubação Quantificação C Referência Bioma Estado Cidade Local Precipitação média anual (mm) Tipo solo Uso da Propriedade Ocupação anterior Tratamento Idade Tratamento (anos) Tempo desmatame nto (anos) Classificação Calagem Plantio Cobertura Tipo de metodologia Método SILVA, et al. (2004) Cerrado DF Planaltina EMBRAPA-Cerrados 1500 Latossolo Vermelho Escuro Argiloso Campos Experimentais Campos Experiment ais Panicum maximum 7 pastagem Não Não Não Indireto Nelson & Sommers, 1982 SILVA, et al. (2004) Cerrado DF Planaltina EMBRAPA-Cerrados 1500 Latossolo Vermelho Escuro Argiloso Campos Experimentais Campos Experiment ais Brachiaria decumbens 3 pastagem Sim Sim Não Indireto Nelson & Sommers, 1982 SILVA, et al. (2004) Cerrado DF Planaltina EMBRAPA-Cerrados 1500 Latossolo Vermelho Escuro Argiloso Campos Experimentais Campos Experiment ais Brachiaria brizantha + Stylosanthes guianensis 3 pastagem Sim Sim Não Indireto Nelson & Sommers, 1982 SILVA, et al. (2004) Cerrado DF Planaltina EMBRAPA-Cerrados 1500 Latossolo Vermelho Escuro Argiloso Campos Experimentais Campos Experiment ais Andropogon gayanus + Neonotonia wightii + Centrosema brasilianum 3 pastagem Sim Sim Não Indireto Nelson & Sommers, 1982 SILVA, et al. (2004) Cerrado DF Planaltina EMBRAPA-Cerrados 1500 Latossolo Vermelho Escuro Argiloso Campos Experimentais Campos Experiment ais B. brizantha (s/ pastejo, p/ produção de sementes) 4 pastagem Sim Sim Sim Indireto Nelson & Sommers, 1982 SILVA, et al. (2004) Cerrado DF Planaltina EMBRAPA-Cerrados 1500 Latossolo Vermelho Escuro Argiloso Campos Experimentais Campos Experiment ais Paspalum atratum (s/ pastejo, p/ produção de sementes) 4 pastagem Sim Sim Sim Indireto Nelson & Sommers, 1982 SILVA, et al. (2004) Cerrado DF Planaltina EMBRAPA-Cerrados 1500 Latossolo Vermelho Escuro Argiloso Campos Experimentais Campos Experiment ais Pastagem nativa − vegetação natural Não Não Não Indireto Nelson & Sommers, 1982 RANGEL; SILVA (2007) Transição Mata Atlântica Cerrado MG Lavras Universidade Federal de Lavras 1530 Latossolo Vermelho distroférrico Campos Experimentais Lavoura de café Eucalipto 29 agricultura ? Sim ? Indireto Yeomans & Bremner, 1988 RANGEL; SILVA (2007) Transição Mata Atlântica Cerrado MG Lavras Universidade Federal de Lavras 1530 Latossolo Vermelho distroférrico Campos Experimentais Lavoura de café Pinus sp. 29 agricultura ? Sim ? Indireto Yeomans & Bremner, 1988
  5. 5. Identifying Potential Sinks ↑C Stocks CO2 +N N2O ↑Stocking Rate CH4
  6. 6. 80% reduction in Amazon conversion + 40% reduction in Cerrado (Savanna) conversion Evaluating Mitigation Options Km2 yr-1 Prodes data 5 yr target level avg 1996 -2005 simulation
  7. 7. Evaluating Mitigation Options Stocking Rates (actual/grazing potential, %) 1. Is there enough low productivity grasslands that are suitable for improvement?
  8. 8. Evaluating Mitigation Options 2. Is there demand for beef and/or for land that justify pasture improvement? Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (Jan 2008) Product2006/20072016/2017% IncreaseSoybeans (M ton)55.5573.7333% Rice (M ton)11.2713.1317% Corn (M ton)48.3264.1233% Sugar (M ton)30.7142.2938% Etanol (M l)17.637.7114%
  9. 9. Evaluating Mitigation Options Land AreaLand Savedyear(106ha)baselinerecovered(106ha)InvestMaintTotal11.9104.4891.603.802175584.82,759.80 23.8104.4878.72 7.60 21751169.63,344.60 35.7104.4865.84 11.40 21751754.43,929.40 47.6104.4852.96 15.20 21752339.24,514.20 59.5104.4840.07 19.00 217529245,099.00 611.4104.4827.19 22.80 21753508.85,683.80 713.3104.4814.31 26.60 21754093.66,268.60 815.2104.481.43 30.40 21754678.46,853.40 917.1104.48-11.45 34.20 21755263.27,438.20 1019.0104.48-24.33 38.00 217558488,023.00 Total21,75032,16453,914 Emissions (MMTCO2-e ha-1 yr-1)Aditional Cost (106 R$ yr-1)
  10. 10. Statewide Universities State Extension Institutes National Plan for Climate Change - Law 12.187 Cerrado Deforestation Agriculture Energy Efficiency Charcoal for Still Industry Other Sectorial Plans Amazon Deforestation Sectorial Plans of Mitigation and Adaptation Brazilian Climate Change (FBMC) 1.Pasture Recovery 2.Crop-Livestock-Forestry Integration 3.No-Tillage Agricuture 4.Biological Nitrigen Fixation 5.Planted Forests 6.Treatment of Animal Residues Presidency Office Ministries Sector representatives Nationwide Embrapa
  11. 11. ABC Plan Brazil’s Policy to Develope a Low-Carbon Emission Agriculture Technology Commitment* (area increase/use) Mitigation Potential (million Mg CO2 e) Recovering Pastures1 15,0 million ha 83 a 104 Crop-Livestock-Forest Integration2 4,0 million ha 18 a 22 No-Tillage System 8,0 million ha 16 a 20 Biological Nitrogen Fixation 5,5 million ha 10 Planted Forests 3,0 million ha - Treatment of Animal Residues 4,4 million m3 6,9 Total 133,9 a 162,9
  12. 12. How could we refine the plan? •Developing regional evaluations of mitigation options potential and costs •Reducing uncertainties on the magnitude of mitigation actions (applying LCA methods) •Running systemic evaluations on the impacts of land use change
  13. 13. Thank you! Luís Gustavo Barioni barioni@cnptia.embrapa.br

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