QUARTER 1, 2012CONSUMER CONFIDENCE,CONCERNS ANDSPENDING INTENTIONSAROUND THE WORLD
OVERALL CONFIDENCE                                                     LEVELS ROSE IN                                     ...
Conditions are improved, but still fragile    “Households around the globe experienced a brighter personal                ...
Consistent good news outweighed the badIn Nielsen’s Q1 survey, while more than half (57%) of consumers                  In...
Economy and job security remained top concernsConsumer concern for the economy remained a top worry among                 ...
Overall consumer confidence increasedacross the regionsOverall consumer confidence rose in all global regions, with       ...
A divergence of confidence/recovery is seenin some regionsThe biggest quarterly confidence gains last quarter came from   ...
Powerhouse economies showed growthIn the U.S., consumer confidence rose nine points to 92, its                    “Major e...
Optimism fueled the outlook in Asia-Pacific,Middle East and Latin AmericaIndia, despite an eight point index year-on-year ...
Recovery gap widened in EuropeConfidence increased in 16 of 27 European markets as the                      “In Italy, cha...
Country abbreviations:Argentina		      AR                           Israel			      IL                                     ...
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Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Q1 2012

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Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Q1 2012

  1. 1. QUARTER 1, 2012CONSUMER CONFIDENCE,CONCERNS ANDSPENDING INTENTIONSAROUND THE WORLD
  2. 2. OVERALL CONFIDENCE LEVELS ROSE IN 68% OF GLOBAL MARKETS MEASUREDGlobal consumer confidence increased five points to 94 More than half of global respondents (57%) they are in a recession, down from said 64% in Q4 2011Discretionary spending and saving increased across all sectors reviewed Concern for the economy remained a top worry among 19% of global respondentsConfidence increased in 16 of 27 European markets U.S. consumer confidence index increased 9 points to 92China confidence increased 2 points to 110Global consumer confidence increased five index points to 94 in Q1 2012, according to globalconsumer confidence findings from Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and insightsinto what consumers watch and buy.In the latest round of the survey, conducted between February 10 and February 27, 2012, overallconfidence rose in 68 percent of global markets measured, compared to Q4 2011 where confidenceincreased in 21 percent of global markets. Confidence in Q1 2012 increased in 38 out of 56 markets,fell in 16 markets and remained flat in two.2 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company.
  3. 3. Conditions are improved, but still fragile “Households around the globe experienced a brighter personal The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and situation in terms of jobs and personal finances last quarter, Spending Intentions, established in 2005, tracks consumer especially in the U.S. and in Asia, which was reflected in the confidence, major concerns and spending intentions among improved consumer confidence and higher discretionary more than 28,000 Internet consumers in 56 countries. spending,” said Dr. Venkatesh Bala, chief economist at The Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 Cambridge Group, a part of Nielsen. “While global economic indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism. conditions are more stable than in the depths of the European sovereign debt crisis late last year, underlying economic conditions are still fragile and fluid in many parts of the world, which could affect consumer confidence and spending momentum for the coming quarter. Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index—56 countries, three month trend Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism Q1 2012 vs. Q4 2011 Top Tier Countries +1 101 and Higher Increase 123 INDIA (more optimism) No change +1 +6 118 119 INDONESIA SAUDI Decrease ARABIA -2 +2 +1 110 110 118 BRAZIL CHINA PHILIPPINES +4 0 +6 +3 103 105 107 107 HONG UNITED ARAB MALAYSIA THAILAND KONG EMIRATES +6 +2 +5 +1 +4 101 96 97 99 99 PERU SINGAPORE EGYPT NORWAY COLOMBIA + or - Change Mid Tier Countries -3 -5 from Q4 2011 -8 +6 +11 100 to 90 93 94 +5 95 95 96 CANADA VIETNAM 94 AUSTRALIA DENMARK CHILE GLOBAL AVERAGE +3 +3 +1 +4 +2 +9 +9 90 90 91 91 91 92 89 GERMANY ISRAEL NEW ZEALAND ARGENTINA PAKISTAN UNITED VENEZUELA STATES Low Tier Countries -1 -7 0 +13 -4 +1 +4 -5 89 to 30 80 81 84 84 86 86 87 87 (more pessimism) MEXICO SWEDEN RUSSIA TAIWAN AUSTRIA NETHERLANDS TURKEY SWITZERLAND -4 +4 -7 +1 +3 +6 -3 +6 +2 66 69 70 70 71 72 73 77 80 UKRAINE CZECH BELGIUM LITHUANIA LATVIA ESTONIA FINLAND UNITED SOUTH REPUBLIC KINGDOM AFRICA +2 -4 +3 +2 -4 +3 -5 -3 +2 +1 -8 +4 32 37 39 45 45 49 50 53 58 60 64 64 HUNGARY GREECE PORTUGAL CROATIA ITALY SOUTH FRANCE SPAIN JAPAN ROMANIA POLAND IRELAND KOREA *Survey is based on respondents with Internet access.below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism Index levels above and Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, Q1 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. 3
  4. 4. Consistent good news outweighed the badIn Nielsen’s Q1 survey, while more than half (57%) of consumers Intended discretionary spending and saving increased in Q1 acrossaround the world indicated they were in a recession, that all sectors reviewed. Half of consumers around the world plan tosentiment was down from 64 percent in Q4 2011. Regionally, put spare cash into savings, up from 48 percent in Q4 2011. Thirtyonline respondents who believed they were in a recession four percent intend to buy new clothes, up from 31 percent theshowed declines in Asia-Pacific (44% compared to 53% in Q4), previous quarter and 33 percent expect to spend spare cash onNorth America (80% compared to 86% in Q4) and Europe holidays and vacations—a rise of seven percentage points from(72% compared to 74% in Q4), while a slightly growing number Q4 2011. Planned spending on technology also increased, with 28of online respondents in Latin America (48% compared to 47% percent of global online consumers intending a purchase, up fromin Q4) and Middle East/Africa (75% compared to 74% in Q4) 22 percent in Q4.believed they were in a recession. “Improved confidence led to more discretionary spending fromMore than half (55%) of online consumers surveyed described consumers around the world in the past quarter,” said Dr. Bala.their personal finances for the next 12 months as excellent/good, “The survey evidence suggests that while consumers are neitherup from 52 percent in Q4 2011, while one-third indicated it was as confident or comfortable with the economy as they would likea good time to buy the things wanted and needed. Local job it to be, they are expressing a pent-up demand to spend as theyprospects improved globally by six percentage points in Q1, yet did prior to the recession. Such a desire for psychological releaseless than half (48%) perceived the outlook for the upcoming year through the various forms of discretionary consumption reportedas favorable. in the Nielsen survey—all of which act as stress-relievers—is understandable after three years of relentless belt-tightening and uncertainty.” Discretionary spending and saving increased across all sectors How to utilize spare cash after covering essential living expenses 50 GLOBAL 48 4645 32 31 31 34 32 31 33 31 32 AVERAGE Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 29 29 Q1 2012 28 28 28 28 27 26 22 2222 23 22 19 19 19 19 18 17 16 16 15 13 13 10 9 9 3 3 2 2 Putting New Holidays/ Out of New Paying Investing in Home Retirement I have no Don’t into clothes vacations home technology off debts/ shares of improvements/ fund spare cash know/ savings entertainment products credit cards/ stock/ decorating undecided loans mutual funds Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, Q1 20124 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company.
  5. 5. Economy and job security remained top concernsConsumer concern for the economy remained a top worry among economy increased four percentage points in Asia-Pacific toone-in-five global respondents (19%)—up from 18 percent in Q4 22 percent and three points in Europe to 14 percent compared2011. Job security (15%), work/life balance (10%), health (8%), to the previous quarter.and increasing food prices (7%) were other key concerns cited, In Europe, increasing utility bills (electricity, gas, heating,which remained unchanged from the previous quarter results. etc.) rose by one point to 10 percent and in North America,While job security fears abated some in North America, increasing fuel prices and food prices increased by three anddropping four percentage points to 12 percent compared to Q4 two points, respectively. Work/life balance and political2011, they rose two points in Latin America to 18 percent and stability worries increased two and one point(s), respectivelyone point in Middle East/Africa to 21 percent. Anxiety over the in the Middle East/Africa. Top 5 concerns over the next 6 months Percent concerned and (change vs. Q4 2011) ASIA LATIN 22% PACIFIC ECONOMY +4 14% EUROPE ECONOMY +3 18% AMERICA JOB SECURITY +2 15% JOB SECURITY +1 15% JOB SECURITY -1 11% ECONOMY N/C WORK/ 13% LIFE BALANCE -2 10% INCREASING 8% HEALTH +1 UTILITY BILLS +1 WORK/ 9% HEALTH N/C 9% HEALTH N/C 11% LIFE BALANCE -2 INCREASING INCREASING 9% FOOD PRICES -1 5% FOOD PRICES N/C 9% CRIME N/C MIDDLE NORTH 21% EAST/AFRICA JOB SECURITY +1 26% AMERICA ECONOMY -1 12% ECONOMY N/C 13% DEBT -2 11% POLITICAL STABILITY +1 12% JOB SECURITY -4 WORK/ INCREASING 7% LIFE BALANCE +2 8% FUEL PRICES +3 INCREASING 6% PARENTS’ WELFARE +1 6% FOOD PRICES +2 Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, Q1 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. 5
  6. 6. Overall consumer confidence increasedacross the regionsOverall consumer confidence rose in all global regions, with According to the latest survey, Asians were most optimisticNorth America posting the biggest regional gain, up eight about job prospects, Latin Americans were most confident aboutindex points to an index of 92. Asia-Pacific posted an index of personal finances and North Americans were most positive about103, up four points, and Middle East/Africa rose two points immediate spending intentions.to 97. Confidence in Europe rose one point to 72 and LatinAmerica remained flat at 98 index points. Overall consumer confidence increased across the regions Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 98 97 99 103 97 98 98 96 95 97 91 94 ASIA LATIN MIDDLE PACIFIC AMERICA EAST/AFRICA 84 92 94 81 79 89 88 89 71 74 71 72 NORTH GLOBAL AMERICA EUROPE AVERAGE Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, Q1 20126 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company.
  7. 7. A divergence of confidence/recovery is seenin some regionsThe biggest quarterly confidence gains last quarter came from There is a divergence of confidence across global regions, as well asTaiwan, Chile, the United States, Venezuela, United Kingdom, a divergence of recovery within some regions. The Eurozone, whichEstonia, Malaysia, Peru, Denmark and Saudi Arabia. had eight of the top 10 most pessimistic markets in Q1 fell back into recession as manufacturing contracted and unemployment reachedThe biggest quarterly declines came from Poland, Australia, a 15-year high, while in the Americas and Asia, manufacturing activityBelgium, Sweden, France, Switzerland, Vietnam, Ukraine, Greece, alongside domestic growth and recovery picked up steam. -and Italy. + Top 10 countries with biggest gains/declines vs. Q4 2011 GAINS DECLINES 13 TAIWAN 8 POLAND 8 AUSTRALIA 11 CHILE 9 7 BELGIUM UNITED STATES 9 VENEZUELA 7 SWEDEN 6 UNITED KINGDOM 5 FRANCE 6 ESTONIA 5 SWITZERLAND 6 MALAYSIA 5 VIETNAM 6 PERU 4 UKRAINE 6 DENMARK 4 GREECE 6 SAUDI ARABIA 4 ITALY Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, Q1 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. 7
  8. 8. Powerhouse economies showed growthIn the U.S., consumer confidence rose nine points to 92, its “Major economic indicators in China are still at reasonable levels,highest level since before the recession, while China’s consumer while the global economic condition is complicated,” said Yanconfidence increased two points to 110, its highest rank since the Xuan, president, Nielsen Greater China. “The government’s firminception of Nielsen’s index in 2005. And after three quarters of support for small- and medium-sized enterprises through thestagnation, Germany’s consumer confidence index climbed three expansion of credit, a policy shift to create domestic consumptionpoints to 90. and demand, and the continued enforcement of restrictions designed to deflate the real estate bubble are all contributing to“The jump in U.S. confidence is not entirely surprising given the Chinese consumer optimism.”respectable job gains in the past quarter,” said James Russo, vicepresident, Global Consumer Insights, Nielsen. “However, this “German consumers feel confident about their personalis not yet a rising tide raising all ships as the U.S. was dealt a perspectives for the moment, especially with regard to theirbelow expectations March job report, followed by a spike in new personal finances and buying intentions,” said Petra Kacnik,unemployment claims in April. Furthermore, according to Nielsen’s Director Consumer Research Germany, Austria & Switzerland.analysis, consumer households earning over $100,000 continue “Apart from the economy, the main concerns for Germanto generate gains in consumer spending and shopping trips, while consumers include rising utility bills and fuel prices. Indeed,nearly 50 percent of Americans in the lower income brackets unemployment in Germany is low and expected to go downstruggle. The near-term outlook for the American consumer will be further. As a result, German consumers, at least for the short-term,heavily impacted by how the labor market behaves, especially for plan to spend their spare cash on new clothes and on holidays andmiddle-class and lower income consumers.” invest in quality of life purchases as the impact of the looming Euro crisis is top-of-mind.” Consumer confidence rises in United States, China and Germany China U.S. Germany 110 +2 100 +3 90 80 +9 70 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, Q1 20128 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company.
  9. 9. Optimism fueled the outlook in Asia-Pacific,Middle East and Latin AmericaIndia, despite an eight point index year-on-year decrease, remained Ashraf, managing director, Nielsen Saudi Arabia. “Despite thethe world’s most optimistic market for the ninth consecutive uncertainties, the Kingdom’s favorable demographics and a strongquarter with a one point quarterly consumer confidence increase economy enhanced by the government’s generous stimulusto 123, followed by Saudi Arabia at 119, with Indonesia and package are driving a positive consumer outlook. With greaterthe Philippines at 118 index points. High index levels were also investments in skills development and a resurgent drive to increasereported in Brazil (110), Thailand and Malaysia (107 each), United employment among nationals, Saudis are feeling more confidentArab Emirates (105), Hong Kong (103) and Peru (101). about their job prospects. The overall sentiment is further strengthened by the near record high Saudi crude production“India once again topped the global index indicating a high level of reported earlier this year and substantial price increases.”confidence amongst consumers, who are optimistic yet cautious,”said Justin Sargent, managing director, Nielsen India. “This In Latin America, Chile and Venezuela showed quarterly consumeroptimism is reflected in Indian consumers’ increased confidence confidence increases of 11 and nine points, respectively. And Brazil,in job prospects, which is a good sign for the economy. However, despite a two point quarterly decline to an index of 110, posted thejob security is still a cause for concern and consumers are still strongest year-on-year confidence gain of 15 index points.cautious when it comes to spending spare cash. Similar to previous “Brazil’s consumer confidence remains at high levels, reflecting theconsecutive quarters, saving cash is still a priority for Indians. On the optimism of the population, especially compared to other Latinother hand, the personal digital revolution and experimentation by American neighbors,” said Eduardo Ragasol, country manager,consumers who are now spoiled with affordable choices, is driving Nielsen Brazil. “Brazilians are confident in the economy and have athe increase in intention to spend on technology. Along with this, a positive perception of their finances. However, consumers are nowgrowing affinity for branded apparel and organized retailing is likely more concerned about paying off debts and loans acquired in theto attract a growing proportion of discretionary spending despite recent past. Brazilians will likely slow down their spending duringeconomic volatility in the near term.” the months ahead as the consumption in Brazil is changing andWhile regional instability persists in Saudi Arabia, indications of consumers are more careful about purchases, which is supporteda provisional, albeit timid, easing of the Euro crisis is alleviating by Nielsen retail insights that show sales volume slowing downimmediate concern over global demand for oil,” said Arslan and sales value going up. Top 11 consumer confidence countries INDIA 123 (+1) INDEX (change vs. Q4 2011) SAUDI ARABIA 119 (+6) INDONESIA 118 (+1) PHILIPPINES 118 (+1) CHINA 110 (+2) BRAZIL 110 (-2) THAILAND 107 (+3) MALAYSIA 107 (+6) Asia-Pacific UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 105 (N/C) Middle East HONG KONG 103 (+4) PERU 101 (+6) Latin America Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, Q1 2012 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. 9
  10. 10. Recovery gap widened in EuropeConfidence increased in 16 of 27 European markets as the “In Italy, changes in the government and the consequent reformseconomic and recovery gap widened between debt-ridden are not yet generating positive effects on consumer expectationssouthern European nations and strengthening central and northern and 26 percent of Italians are still concerned about job security,”Europe. In addition to Germany’s three point quarterly increase to said Roberto Pedretti, managing director, Nielsen Italy. “Moreover,90, Denmark (95) and the United Kingdom (77) posted quarterly net income has been further penalized by additional local taxesconfidence gains of six points each. shrinking the purchasing power of Italian families. While government actions focused on public debt and trust from global investors areHungary, despite a two point quarterly gain, remained the most positive signals for a recovery path, it is still not powered by clearpessimistic country at 32 index points, followed by Greece, where political action.”confidence fell to a low of 37 and Portugal at 39. Southern Europeannations of Italy, France and Spain fell to low confidence levels as the “The purchasing power in France is even weaker at the start of 2012job outlook declined and personal finances and spending intentions than it was last year, with both existing and new taxes increasing,”remained restrained for the upcoming year. Steep quarterly declines said Laurent Zeller, managing director, Nielsen France. “While foodwere also reported in Poland (-8), and Belgium (-7). prices are in a stabilized rhythm, they are still on the rise and with high petrol prices, hypermarket, supermarket and discount store“Greek consumer confidence has reached an all-time low, as visits are impacted showing a year-over-year drop in sales volume ofGreek consumers remained pessimistic for the future of the Greek -1.5 percent in January.”economy,” said Vicky Grigoriadou, client service director, NielsenGreece. “The Greek fiscal crisis has been looming for some time, but “Spain is showing record unemployment rates, which is expectedthere have been no signs of recovery. Consumers continue to doubt to grow during the year creating uncertainty among the Spanishthat Greece will manage to escape the recession any time soon and population,” said Jose-Luis Garcia Fuentes, managing director,expectations for economic growth seem to have vanished.” Nielsen Spain. “Despite rising taxes and reduced disposable income, current fast-moving consumer goods trends do not show a decline as they cover basic needs.” Divided Europe – Improving north and struggling south NORTHERN INDEX (change vs. Q4 2011) EUROPE 99 (+1) NORWAY 95 (+6) DENMARK 86 (+1) NETHERLANDS 81 (-7) SWEDEN 77 (+6) UNITED KINGDOM 73 (-3) FINLAND 72 (+6) ESTONIA 71 (+3) LATVIA 37 (-3) GREECE 70 (+1) LITHUANIA 39 (+3) PORTUGAL 70 (-7) BELGIUM 45 (-4) ITALY 64 (+4) IRELAND 45 (+2) CROATIA 53 (-2) SPAIN 60 (+1) ROMANIA SOUTHERN Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, Q1 2012 EUROPE10 Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company.
  11. 11. Country abbreviations:Argentina AR Israel IL Switzerland CHAustralia AU Italy IT Taiwan TWAustria AT Japan JP Thailand THBelgium BE Latvia LV Turkey TRBrazil BR Lithuania LT United Arab Emirates AECanada CA Malaysia MY Great Britain GBChina CN Mexico MX Ukraine UAChile CL Netherlands NL United States USColombia CO New Zealand NZ Venezuela VECroatia HR Norway NO Vietnam VNCzech Republic CZ Pakistan PKDenmark DK Peru PEEgypt EG Philippines PH Region abbreviations:Estonia EE Poland PL AP Asia-PacificFinland FI Portugal PT EU EuropeFrance FR Romania RO LA Latin AmericaGermany DE Russia RU MEAP Middle East, Africa, Greece GR Saudi Arabia SA PakistanHong Kong HK Singapore SG NA North America Hungary HU South Africa SA India IN South Korea KOIndonesia ID Spain ESIreland IE Sweden SEAbout the Nielsen Global Survey About NielsenThe Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Nielsen Holdings N.V. (NYSE: NLSN) isConfidence and Spending Intentions was a global information and measurementconducted between February 10 and company with leading market positionsFebruary 27, 2012 and polled more than in marketing and consumer information,28,000 online consumers in 56 countries television and other media measurement,throughout Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin online intelligence, mobile measurement,America, the Middle East, Africa and trade shows and related properties.North America. The sample has quotas Nielsen has a presence in approximatelybased on age and sex for each country 100 countries, with headquarters in Newbased on their Internet users, and is York, USA and Diemen, the Netherlands.weighted to be representative of Internet For more information, visitconsumers and has a maximum margin www.nielsen.com.of error of ±0.6%. This Nielsen survey isbased on the behavior of respondents withonline access only. Internet penetrationrates vary by country. Nielsen uses aminimum reporting standard of 60percent Internet penetration or 10Monline population for survey inclusion. TheNielsen Global Survey, which includes theGlobal Consumer Confidence Index, wasestablished in 2005.For more information visit www.nielsen.com Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen Company. All rights reserved. Nielsen and the Nielsen logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of CZT/ACN Trademarks, L.L.C. Other product and service names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective companies.Company. Copyright © 2012 The Nielsen 12/4934 11

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