Julija jurkevic

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FTTH Conference 2013

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Julija jurkevic

  1. 1. FTTH and Video CompetitionFTTH Council Europe ConferencePresenter: Julija JurkevicPrepared: February 20, 2013This document is confidential and isintended solely for the use and informationof the SNL Financial and the individual, group,or corporation to whom it is addressed.
  2. 2. Over-the-top (OTT) Video & TV EverywhereOTT TV Everywhere All web-sourced video Deployed by pay-TV operators — cable, IPTV, DTH All connected devices Authenticated & free to all PC, tablet, Smart TV, game console, OTT STB Multi-screen: PCTV, game consoles, Free broadcast catch-up smart TVs Premium rental & purchase Diverse content supply: Network supplied VOD, UGC, adjunct, LIVE User generated content Ad-based and rental models. Download to Rogue sources own (DTO) natural extension. © 2013 SNL Kagan, a division of SNL Financial LC, estimates. All rights reserved. 2
  3. 3. OTT Viability IndicatorsBroadband speeds higher than 4MbpsStrong telecom presenceOpen regulatory environmentDiverse international contentStrong local broadcastersExcess broadband capacity — 20Mbps-100Mbps pipesResidential purchasing power — device affordability © 2013 SNL Kagan, a division of SNL Financial LC, estimates. All rights reserved. 3
  4. 4. OTT Viability — MIND THE GAP Broadband HHs/HHs Multichannel Subs/TVHH Share of Cable Broadband HHs(%)125 BRIC: Future Near-term OTT opportunities opportunities100 75 50 25 0 © 2013 SNL Kagan, a division of SNL Financial LC, estimates. All rights reserved. 4
  5. 5. Affordability Gap Between Basic Cable, DTH & OTT (US$) Monthly OTT Subscription Price 70 Monthly Broadband ARPU65.98 64.14 63.42 64.09 8.00 60 15.68 13.85 18.54 50 43.89 44.11 40 8.32 7.86 31.05 30 57.98 25.95 8.85 48.46 49.57 45.54 7.89 20 35.57 36.26 10 22.20 18.06 0 Australia New Zealand Japan South Korea Brazil Canada France U.K.OTT system: (Quickflix) (Quickflix) (Hulu) (SK Broadband) (Netflix) (Netflix) (VideoFutur) (LoveFilm)Basic cable 1.1% 1.4% 1.5% 0.4% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 1.0% DTH 1.3% 2.2% 1.3% 0.6% 5.1% 2.1% 1.4% 2.0% OTT 1.9% 2.6% 2.2% 1.2% 4.6% 2.0% 1.4% 0.8% © 2013 SNL Kagan, a division of SNL Financial LC, estimates. All rights reserved. 5
  6. 6. Telefónica - Spain  Telefónica’s Home and largest market  Incumbent Nationwide Fixed Line Operator  Networks: xDSL, FTTH, Wireless  4 Play services – Fixed phone, IPTV, Internet, Mobile voice/data  TV EverywhereSpain Major Fixed Broadband Platforms Spain Broadband Net Adds by Platform DSL Cable FTTH 14,000 DSL Cable FTTH 12,000 316 800 56 171 657 10,000 16 2,083 2,234 1,954 1,863 568 8,000 600 6,000 4,000 8,392 8,670 8,898 400 7,734 278 2,000 228 0 200 129 151 85 91 145 (000) 2009 2010 2011 2012 116 6 40 DSL 80.0% 80.2% 78.7% 77.2% 0 (000) 2009 2010 2011 2012 FTTH 0.2% 0.5% 1.6% 2.7%
  7. 7. Telefónica Spain Telefónica Total Broadband and Fibre Subs (000) 5,800 5,749 400 Total Broadband 5,722 5,672 5,669 FTTH 5,620 5,607 5,609 5,613 5,600 5,579 5,580 5,600 300 5,477 232 5,424 261 200 5,400 200 5,331 163 5,292 126 93 5,200 100 66 49 25 32 11 19 4 7 9 5,000 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2010 2011 2012BB Mkt. Share 56.7% 54.7% 50.9%% of Total Subs 0.2% 0.9% 2.9% 4.7%% of FTTH Mkt. 71.3% 87.8% 95.0% 96.6% © 2013 SNL Kagan, a division of SNL Financial LC, estimates. All rights reserved. 7
  8. 8. Telefónica Spain — FTTH ServicesTelefónica offers ADSL, VDSL, and FTTH service bundlesComplete HD TV offer available only with FTTH - Linear & On-Demand contentFTTH offers a substantial boost in upload speeds VDSL upload speeds similar to ADSLPrice/MB is cheaper for FTTH services than xDSL xDSL – at least €1/MB; FTTH - €0.4/MBFTTH ARPU is 38% higher than xDSL ARPU Price/MB of Data FTTH ARPU - €80.85 € 2.5 xDSL ARPU - €58.43 € 2.0 CMT, Q3 2012 € 1.5FTTH services are priced competitively € 1.0 100Mbps 2 play: €12 cheaper than Cable 100 Mbps 2-play (ONO) € 0.5 100Mbps 3 play: €6 cheaper than Cable 3-play (ONO) € 0.0 ADSL VDSL FTTH © 2013 SNL Kagan, a division of SNL Financial LC, estimates. All rights reserved. 8
  9. 9. Orange – France  FT’s Home and largest market  Incumbent Nationwide Fixed Line Operator  Networks: xDSL, FTTH, Wireless  4 Play services – Fixed phone, IPTV, Internet, Mobile voice/data  TV EverywhereFrance - Major Fixed Broadband France - Broadband Net Adds byPlatforms Platform DSL Cable FTTH25,000 303 DSL Cable FTTH 198 1,583 118 1,415 1,400 1,277 1,27220,000 69 1,217 1,160 1,200 1,12415,000 934 1,00010,000 20,982 21,916 800 18,586 19,858 600 5,000 400 198 153 57 168 0 200 49 80 21 105 2009 2010 2011 2012(000) 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 DSL 93.7% 93.6% 92.8% 92.0% (000)
  10. 10. Orange France France Telecom-Orange —Total Broadband and Fibre Subs (000) 10,000 200 9,827 Total Broadband 9,749 9,671 FTTH 9,598 9,478 144 9,500 9,371 150 9,308 123 9,128 108 9,016 9,000 8,880 8,879 8,925 95 100 82 8,763 73 8,639 65 8,540 54 42 45 8,500 35 37 50 29 31 24 8,000 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2010 2011 2012BB Mkt. Share 44.8% 43.0% 42.4%% of Total Subs 0.4% 0.6% 1.0% 1.5%% of FTTH Mkt. 50.7% 45.8% 48.0% © 2013 SNL Kagan, a division of SNL Financial LC, estimates. All rights reserved. 10
  11. 11. Orange France: FTTH ServicesOrange offers ADSL and FTTH servicesHDTV, 3DTV, multi-screen available to all FTTH subs but limited or unavailable forADSL subsADSL to FTTH upgrade increases speed at least x 5FTTH bundles are17% more expensive than ADSL bundles, but frequent promotionsreduce price differenceFTTH services are priced competitively to cable 200Mbps bundle: €65cheaper than comparable Cable bundle (Numericable) © 2013 SNL Kagan, a division of SNL Financial LC, estimates. All rights reserved. 11
  12. 12. Orange France Broadband ARPU Access ARPU (€) 31 30.40 30 29.40 29.50 29.40 28.90 29.10 29.10 28.80 28.60 29 28.50 28.30 28.40 27.70 28 27.40 27.14 27 26 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2010 2011 2012 (€) Services ARPU (Voice and Video) 8 7.90 7.80 7.66 7.60 7.70 7.60 7.40 7.50 7 7.30 6.90 7.00 7.00 6.60 6.70 6 5.70 5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2009 2010 2011 2012Total 34.80 35.00 35.10 36.20 36.20 36.60 36.10 37.00 35.70 35.50 36.00 36.50 36.10 36.10 36.10 © 2013 SNL Kagan, a division of SNL Financial LC, estimates. All rights reserved. 12
  13. 13. Thank You & Q&A 40 Ragsdale Drive Suite 250 Monterey, California USA 93940 www.snlkagan.com 13

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