Astrid wisse


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FTTH Conference Europe 2012
Munich, 14 Feb 2012

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Astrid wisse

  1. 1. How do we communicate in 2020?Astrid WisseDirector Ernst & Young Advisory Telecommunications15th of February 2012
  2. 2. The world is changing rapidly“Cisco: Global cloud traffic will increase 12-fold by 2015”November 29, 2011“KLM enables people to chose their flight neighbour through social networks”December 5, 2011“Google will know more about you than your partner: Uproar as search giantreveals privacy policy that will allow them to track you on all their product”February 3, 2012“Hacker group Anonymous published conference call between FBI and ScotlandYard”February 3, 2012“Spatial Views 3D-Screen adds Glasses-Free 3D Capabilities to 2D Laptops”February 7, 2012“US refuses entry to two Brits because of tweets joking about digging up MarilynMonroe and destroying America"February 8, 2012Page 2
  3. 3. Scenario planning helps to get more grip on uncertainty► Scenarios help decision makers to challenge the ‘official future’.► Scenarios are external realities, they can not be influenced.► Scenarios are extreme pictures, meant to stretch mental models.► Scenarios can be used: ► As a stress test for your current strategy ► To validate new decisionsPage 3
  4. 4. The most crucial part of scenario planning is theexploration of the external environment► The creation of scenarios requires 5 steps: Uncertainty I 1. Define the scope 2. Explore the environment 3. Distinguish key uncertainties from important trends 4. Develop the scenario framework Scenario A Scenario B 5. Describe detailed scenarios Uncertainty II► To explore the environment it is important to take an outside-in approach.► The external environment can be divided in a macro environment and a business environment. Scenario C Scenario D► The forces identified are external and therefore can not be influenced by the organization.Page 4
  5. 5. Broad industry views are key for scenario planning,we involved many industry experts Infrastructure and service providers How do Media & Content and apps entertainment Consumers providers & communicate in new start ups 2020? Equipment providers Sherry Turkle (Professor of the Social Studies of Science and Technology at the MIT) “Connectivity offers the illusion of companionship without the demands of friendship”Menno Lanting (Author of Connect)“Borders between consumers and companies fade”Page 5
  6. 6. ‘Self-shaping of the physical world within your own context provides a shapeable world’ Raimo van der Klein Layar, CEOPage 6
  7. 7. ‘People want to be in control of the internet space’ Ricardo Brenna Sony Ericsson, Global Head Research & IntelligencePage 7
  8. 8. ‘On the internet, people who have less self discipline loose themselves’ Ned Wiley Axel Springer, Managing DirectorPage 8
  9. 9. During this Scenario Study we have looked at relevanttrends and their relationships Explore environment Focal question► Explored the environment using different methods. Desk research► Assessed the uncertainty and impact of Interviews the different trends.► Developed a trend complex with Workshops relationships between trends. Long list of trends► Determined the so called key Demograp Generatio Virtualization hics nZ social The cloud uncertainties in the trend complex. media Rank trends Aging population variety in content digital Worries waste about services Frequency Privacy security► The characteristics of a key uncertainty scarcity and privacy Social Need for Connected safety consumer, are: Need for more comfort: Mobile device security solutions Changing Need for interfaces an 1. A high impact experience Need for own identity Integratio n Personaliz ation Need for a “personal “personal guide” guide” Co- experienc creation e center “green” 2. A high uncertainty 2 Key Central position within the trend Visualize 3. uncertainties complex A B C DPage 9
  10. 10. This analysis has resulted in 2 key uncertainties: security& privacy and integration of internet & consumer life Integration of internet and consumer life Fully integrated & seamless Virtual and physical worlds merge seamlessly together Security and privacyIn control Not in controlStrict privacy & security regulation Privacy issuesTransparency & approval for data usage Internet gangs and identity theftControlled and safe internet Uncontrolled chaos Fragmented & separated The virtual world is a separate, stand alone world Reversal of virtualizationPage 10
  11. 11. Combining these two key uncertainties delivers four divergent and challenging scenarios A Integration of internet and consumer life B Fully integrated & seamless Security and privacy Not in controlIn control C Fragmented & separated D Page 11
  12. 12. Next steps► Ernst & Young will present the final scenarios on the 8th of March 2012.► The next steps for you are: ► Judge how well you are prepared for the future; ► Assess your current strategy; ► Identify blank spots, risks and opportunities; ► Monitor the changes in the external environment.► Ideally scenario planning should not be a stand alone activity.► It is essential to monitor the environment frequently.► Ernst & Young will follow this up with a yearly update of the scenarios.Page 12
  13. 13. From the 8th of March you can visit to find outmorePage 13