John Yeomans - First Capital - Balanacing OnNet backhaul

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Broadband World Forum 2011 - John Yeomans - First Capital - Balanacing OnNet backhaul

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John Yeomans - First Capital - Balanacing OnNet backhaul

  1. 1. Balancing OnNet backhaul withOffNet WiFi DSLThe future of cellular with WiFi John Yeomans Director, FirstCapital Director, SharedBand +44 7870 655647 john@yeomans.org.uk www.firstcapital.co.uk www.sharedband.com 1
  2. 2. Introduction John Yeomans, FIET  telecom strategy and technology finance background Director, Sharedband  access management software  bonded DSL leader  applications extend to 3G and WiFi Director, Worksnug  social network to help mobile workers access wifi Director, FirstCapital  financial adviser to European technology businesses  combine industry and financial knowledge 2
  3. 3. What everyone is saying 1. Backhaul  As big a bottleneck as spectrum  Carrier Ethernet, in various forms, is the ubiquitous solution 2. WiFi Offload  Do it more, but it’s still only a small minority of traffic  Don’t allow voice to ‘leak out’  Generally winning over femtocells, because of ubiquity/market position  Debate between tight and loose coupling with mobile network 3
  4. 4. What this paper is going to say1. Backhaul  Agreed, backhaul is congested, but make life easier with more wifi offload to alleviate suburban/urban congestion….  and in the process change the choices of backhaul architecture and technology2. WiFi Offload  Plan for it a lot more still: target 80% plus of traffic by 2014  VOIP over wifi is inevitable and desirable – plan for it, and encourage it  Loose coupling initially is the way….but it will migrate to a new more tightly coupled architecture 4
  5. 5. Typical urban/suburban cellular infrastructure : base stations in Blue Population 60,000 (for full town: 120,000) Area c. 4 x 4 km, hilly Households 25,000 Operators 4/5 Base stations c. 60 (T Mobile and Orange not up to date) Broadbands c 20,000 Sites c. 35 Places needing extremely high capacity, resilient cover 1 5
  6. 6. As you move to smartphones, data dominates usage My own usage per month 300 texts = <1 Mbyte 300 voice mins = 30 Mbyte 300 Mbytes data = 300 MByte So adding data typically means 10x the level of bit carriage My package costs less than 1.3x a voice only package 6
  7. 7. The effect of 20 x data growth (about 5 years by most forecasts) Option 1: No new focus on wifi offload Say 10% of traffic is offloaded Sites Constrained by planning Maybe 2-4 x numbers, at most Already sub 1km distances Backhaul c. 10 x capacity per cell site More sites and more capacity Shift to Gig-E and fibre but favours wireless relay to core, many technology options existing nodes as access points Option 2: Heavy focus on wifi offload 50% + of traffic offloaded Now only coping with 10x traffic growth for cellular network. Wireless mesh/access point architecture less strongly favoured. Massive savings. 7
  8. 8. Is 50% to 80% wifi offload realistic or desirable?Realistic AbsolutelyPersonally 70% Netcounter statistics over 6 months, now WiFi Cellular 2.5GByte 1GByte See also Mobile Data Offload: How much can wifi deliver April 2011, CoNext which estimated 65% is offloadable now & John Yeomans paper, Service And Pricing Strategy For Mobile Operators Long Term Survival, March 2011, Informa Mobile Broadband Conference, AmsterdamDesirable Yes, tooUsers Prefer it. Far higher bit rates. More reliable.Economics Strongly favours itOperators Loss of control? Loss of revenue? ‘Unmanaged’ service? Or a foundation for profits? 8
  9. 9. The connection, control and management problem1. Is there a problem? Why do operators want on-net?2. Rely on the device rather than just the network for management  Software in Smartphones : a monitoring app. with usage data sent to operator3. Use the (mobile) IP protocol and modify the data network architecture From: To: Access Core Operator’s managed On-net Voice core network – use Voice mobile IP routing to bring Data Data data back on-net …if you need to Off-net fixed Public internet 9
  10. 10. What’s the next stage? It’s as easy as A B C (access, backhaul, core)More intelligence in the device to manage routing: cellular versus WiFi  currently there is no handoff: arguably unnecessary for dataBut as streaming traffic over smartphones grows, handoff becomes essential  data streaming, video streaming & voiceArchitecture now a logical wireless access, backhaul, and core network structure Access Backhaul Core ABC Operator’s managed core network – managed data, mobile video and voice streaming Wireless access fixed Public internet 10
  11. 11. Can a Smartphone manage this level of IP complexity? Yes, easily  The handoff decision (wifi / cellular) is placed in the handset, as now  Joining the packets from different transmission routes back together is a managed service performed in the core network Managing seamless handover between cellular and wifi is the same problem as bonding DSL lines properly  Joining together and break apart streams of packets over different lines or routes  Compensating for delay, jitter, speed variation and other changes in transmission parameters over time  SharedBand does this now, and is working with tier 1 international carriers 11
  12. 12. Reality checkDoes this matter and is it right? YESWith acknowledgement to Adam Gryzbicki, ATT Oregon, Paper on Mobile Broadband Technology Path, Nov 2010and to Zanran.com for making graphical information so easy to find 12
  13. 13. Commercial impactsOption 1: Batten down the hatchesDisallow VOIP / streaming on handsets ….and watch your cost structure go up FASTMaximise on-net traffic over 5 years and your user base migrate to advanced VOIP, with its presence and other services functionally better than cellularOption 2: Open it all upCreate a mobile solution that uses the most ….danger of some short term revenue losseconomic access method (cellular or wifi)Offload 70% of mobile data by 2015 ….but also some big 2-3 year capex savingsManage the connections from the Smartphones ….and the opportunity to retain voice andInto the network, for reliable streaming data traffic later rather than see it migrateservices and management of network handoff 13
  14. 14. ConclusionWiFi offload strategy forms an integral part of backhaul planningIt leads towards a different vision of a mobile network Use the best access network (WiFi when available, usually)  but provide the best coverage too (cellular) The handset as the first place to manage handoff, not the base station  with intelligent access/routing software, linked to the core network Core managed network services  protecting voice, and building new streaming and managed service revenues  managing access integrity, over cellular and wifiThank you 14

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