The Roadmap for a Fiber FutureCollaboration to ensure the next generation of networksBBWF 2011Pyramid ResearchSylwia Bogus...
Three Questions About Fiber     What are the global and regional fiber broadband1. What are the global and regional fiber ...
What arethe global and regional   fiber broadband adoption and revenue        trends?                          3
Global and Regional Broadband Adoption Forecast  Globally xDSL remains the dominant broadband access technology.  FTTH acc...
Global and Regional FTTH/B Broadband Trends and Outlook             Since 2009 deployments have slowed in developed market...
Global and Regional FTTH/B Broadband Trends and Outlook      Early adopters Japan and Korea lead the way today.      China...
Global and Regional FTTH/B Broadband Service Revenue ForecastFTTH ARPU is about 1.1-1.5x higher than average broadband ARP...
Global and Regional FTTH/B Broadband Service Revenue Forecast         FTTH broadband service revenue will more than double...
What are the FTTx network     deployment trends?              &What are evolving FTTx network  operator business models?  ...
FTTX Network Deployment Drivers and ConsiderationsKey drivers for fiber network deployments                         Revenu...
FTTX Network Deployment Drivers and ConsiderationsNetwork deployments generally focus on areas that promise highermargins....
FTTX Network Deployment Drivers and ConsiderationsAlthough regulators and the European Commission encourage theshared roll...
FTTX Network Deployment Drivers and ConsiderationsCEE’s strong uptake in FTTB/H deployments has been driven by amix of alt...
FTTX Network Deployment Drivers and ConsiderationsOur analysis of carriers fiber deployments show a three distinctmodels: ...
What next steps that regulators, operators          andother service providers     should take?                          15
Pyramid’s perspective•    There is a space for regulators, operators, other service providers (i.e.     municipalities ) t...
Sylwia Boguszewska, AnalystPyramid Researchsboguszewska@pyr.comLudgate House245 Blackfriars RoadLondon, SE1 9UYUKTel: + 44...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Sylwia Boguszewska - Pyramid Research - The Roadmap for a Fiber Future

793 views

Published on

Broadband World Forum 2011 - Sylwia Boguszewska - Pyramid Research - The Roadmap for a Fiber Future

Published in: Technology, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
793
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
30
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Sylwia Boguszewska - Pyramid Research - The Roadmap for a Fiber Future

  1. 1. The Roadmap for a Fiber FutureCollaboration to ensure the next generation of networksBBWF 2011Pyramid ResearchSylwia Boguszewska
  2. 2. Three Questions About Fiber What are the global and regional fiber broadband1. What are the global and regional fiber broadband adoption and revenue trends? adoption and revenue trends?2. What are the FTTx network deployment trends & & What are the FTTx network deployment trends evolving FTTx network operator business models evolving FTTx network operator business models? What next steps should regulators, operators, other3. What next steps should regulators, operators, other service providers take? service providers take? 2
  3. 3. What arethe global and regional fiber broadband adoption and revenue trends? 3
  4. 4. Global and Regional Broadband Adoption Forecast Globally xDSL remains the dominant broadband access technology. FTTH accounts for11% of total lines in 2011. APAC accounts for almost half of all broadband lines. TOTAL BROADBAND ACCESS LINES BY TYPE, GLOBAL TOTAL BROADBAND ACCESS LINES BY REGION 2011 2010 -2016 631M xDSL Cable Modem FTTH Other 1,200 AME NA 6%Broadband Accounts (millions) 1,000 16% 800 LATAM 8% 600 APAC 400 41% 200 WE 21% 0 CEE 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 8% Source: Pyramid Research, Global Fixed Communications Forecast, Q2 2011 4
  5. 5. Global and Regional FTTH/B Broadband Trends and Outlook Since 2009 deployments have slowed in developed markets. Increased focus in emerging markets has led to substantial growth in FTTH subscribers. TOTAL GLOBAL FTTH ACCESS LINES, 2007-2011 TOTAL FTTH ACCESS LINES BY REGION 2011 (MILLIONS) 68M 80 CAGR 32% AME NA 2.7% 70 14.8%Access lines millions 60 LATAM 2.6% 50 WE 40 8.1% 30 CEE 20 1.3% 10 APAC 0 70.4% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Pyramid Research, Global Fixed Communications Forecast, Q2 2011 5
  6. 6. Global and Regional FTTH/B Broadband Trends and Outlook Early adopters Japan and Korea lead the way today. China should emerge as the largest FTTH/B market in the world. FTTH/B SUBSCRIBERS – TOTALS AND % OF TOP TEN COUNTRIES FOR FTTH/B BROADBAND LINES, TOTAL BROADBAND LINES, 2010 2010 Japan 20,145 80% Korea 12,232 70% US 6,559 60%FTTH/B subscribers (000) Russia 3,362 50% China 2,174 40% Taiwan 2,087 30% Hong Kong 960 20% Sweden 787 10% Italy 747 0% Australia 491 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 FTTH/B Broadband Lines (000) Source: Pyramid Research, Global Fixed Communications Forecast, Q2 2011 6
  7. 7. Global and Regional FTTH/B Broadband Service Revenue ForecastFTTH ARPU is about 1.1-1.5x higher than average broadband ARPU.The potential for increasing ARPU lies in the number of value-addedservices that can be delivered over the fiber network.Multiplay and value-added services are key to a viable business case for FTTHnetworks, as they generate higher ARPU and create customer loyalty. FTTH ARPL VS. AVERAGE BROADBAND ARPL, BY REGION, 2011 (US$) FTTH ARPL Average Broadband ARPL $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 AME APAC CEE WE LATAM NA Source: Pyramid Research, Global Fixed Communications Forecast, Q2 2011 7
  8. 8. Global and Regional FTTH/B Broadband Service Revenue Forecast FTTH broadband service revenue will more than double to $116bn by 2016, up from $51bn in 2011. APAC will keep its leadership position through 2016. FTTH BROADBAND REVENUE BY REGION, 2010 - 2016 FTTH BROADBAND SERVICE REVENUE AS % OF BROADBAND SERVICE REVENUE BY REGION, 2010 - 2016 $140 80%Service revenue (US$bn) AME APAC CEE AME APAC % of total broadband service revenue $120 70% CEE WE WE LATAM NA LATAM NA $100 60% 50% $80 40% $60 30% $40 20% $20 10% $0 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Pyramid Research, Global Fixed Communications Forecast, Q2 2011 8
  9. 9. What are the FTTx network deployment trends? &What are evolving FTTx network operator business models? 9
  10. 10. FTTX Network Deployment Drivers and ConsiderationsKey drivers for fiber network deployments Revenue attrition Increasing demand for bandwidth Competitive pressures and convergence Regulatory requirements and incentives Future-proofing & opex efficiencies 10
  11. 11. FTTX Network Deployment Drivers and ConsiderationsNetwork deployments generally focus on areas that promise highermargins.These include business-centric and/or high-income regions, areaswhere operators can achieve savings through existing infrastructure,aerial deployment and/or strong brand. 11
  12. 12. FTTX Network Deployment Drivers and ConsiderationsAlthough regulators and the European Commission encourage theshared rollout of NGN networks, such agreements are rare, andmostly stay on paper in WE.Country governments and the EU provide funds to expandbroadband connectivity across CEE, while municipalities and utilitycompanies are usually not engaged in fiber deployments. 12
  13. 13. FTTX Network Deployment Drivers and ConsiderationsCEE’s strong uptake in FTTB/H deployments has been driven by amix of alternative operators, MSOs and incumbent telcos, supportedby government incentives 1313
  14. 14. FTTX Network Deployment Drivers and ConsiderationsOur analysis of carriers fiber deployments show a three distinctmodels: open access, closed access and collaboration. Open access model Collaboration model Closed-access model 14
  15. 15. What next steps that regulators, operators andother service providers should take? 15
  16. 16. Pyramid’s perspective• There is a space for regulators, operators, other service providers (i.e. municipalities ) to work together to roll out and also drive adoption of next generation networks. The role of governments and the European Commission is particularly visible in a number of Central Eastern European markets.• In cherry picking areas to roll out FTTH, it is critical to go for areas that can be covered at lower costs and/or generate higher margins.• In building a service portfolio, FTTH network operators should do several things…• Beyond its merits such as encouraging service innovation, the open-access model carries significant risks.• Capex per home continues to be very high for FTTH, and SPs will have to improve the other metrics to make the FTTH investment a financial success. 16
  17. 17. Sylwia Boguszewska, AnalystPyramid Researchsboguszewska@pyr.comLudgate House245 Blackfriars RoadLondon, SE1 9UYUKTel: + 44 (0) 20 7560 4471Fax: + 44 (0) 20 7560 4485HeadquartersPyramid Research10 Canal ParkCambridge, MA 02141USATel: + 1 617 871-1900Fax: + 1 617 871-1933 17

×