GLOBALWARMINGaka AnthropogenicClimate ChangeFact or Fiction: Dowe need to Control1
Contents• Part One– What makes the Climate?• Part Two– Environmentalist View of the World• Part Two– What is Global Warming• Part Three– Facts on CO2 and Temperature• Part Four– Forecasting Temperature from CO2• Part Five– Why this is a serious issue• DiscussionsPrepared By:David Pristash, ConsultantBrecksville, Ohio 44141Cell: 216.272.4583Email: David.Pristash@gmail.com2
Definitive Proof of GlobalWarmingDefinitive Proof of GlobalWarming
4,500 542 415 300 200 145 65 1.89This is veryquestionableWhere is theWater?
Water Vapor The Major Greenhouse Gas• Water vapor accounts for the largest percentageof the greenhouse effect, between 36% and66% for clear sky conditions• And between 66% and 85% when includingclouds and this is perhaps the biggest unknownin the models..• Water vapor in the atmosphere raises the earthssurface temperature about:– 33oC or from -18o/-19oC to 14o/15oC– 59oF or from -1o/0oF to 57o/58oFSource Wikipedia “Greenhouse Gas” July, 2011
Carbon Cycle This section shows ayearly flow into theocean of 92 gt andreleases of 90 gt for a netreduction of 2 gt carbon.This section shows ayearly flow into thevegetation of 121 gtand releases of 120 gtfor a net reduction of1 gt of carbon.This is Carbon not Carbon Dioxide bothterms are used and it can be confusing.
CO2 a Requirement of Photosynthesis• There is evidence that a higher concentrationof atmospheric CO2 speeds up plant growth.This effect was enhanced by:– Higher temperatures– Higher lighting levels– Higher supporting water and nutrients• Growth shown to be over 300% higher insome casesEquation released for open use by author ZooFan.Photo from Dan Digs – dandigs.comJuly, 2011
Global Warming,“The Problem”• We have been told the Earth iswarming from a CO2 build up in theatmosphere, trapping in heat.• We have also been told this CO2increase is the result of burningfossil fuels.• Are these True or False? 14
The Answer to Warming is “Yes”• The world has been in this warming trend forwell over 15,000 years, since the last iceage, in fact.• As a result the world average temperatureis now about 4oF warmer then back then butstill way below the historical average. 15
The Answer to CO2 Increasing is“Yes”• The use of carbon based fuels especiallysince 1850 has probably increased the levelof CO2 in the atmosphere• As a result CO2 levels have gone from 280ppm to almost 400 ppm today
The IPCC Claims:• CO2 buildup in the atmosphere is the causeof large projected temperature increases• They have computer models that prove thisis true and there is a consensus of scientiststhat support this belief• This will cause catastrophic climate changesthat will cause much suffering• We must stop putting CO2 in the atmospherebefore this happens
From the newscientist.com 29 April 2009 by Catherine BrahicThis is Graphic of the IPCC Models
Basics of Climate Models• Net Climate Forcing– Increase in temperature (From more CO2)– C02 trapping IR and transferring it to H20• Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity– Heat transfer out of the system (up & down)– H20 radiating heat up out of the atmosphere– H20 radiating heat down into the oceans• Rate of heat transfer to the deep ocean– How much mass is in the system– Movement of heat down warming the ocean
Global ClimateModels’• Global Climate Models (GCM) are very complexmathematical constructs used to try and predictfuture climate• They requires a solid understanding of all thephysical and energy flows in the biosphere• They are based on developing equations for“everything” that effects heat movement and thensolving those equations• This requires that the world from the deepestocean to the top of the atmosphere be placed intoboxes or cells --- called a mesh• To properly model the climate we need to lookdown 10 miles and up at least 60 miles whichcomprises a volume of 13.8 billion cubic miles• If we used a resolution that was a ¼ mile thatwould mean 8.832 Trillion cubes.This picture is in thePublic Doman the sourceis NOAA
Climate Model Problem AreasHadley Centre model HadCM3, for example, uses a mesh based on 3.75longitude and 2.5 degrees latitude (255 miles by 449 miles), giving a grid of96 by 73 points; and has 19 levels in the vertical.This results in about 500,000 "basic" variables, since each grid point hasfour variables (u,v, T, Q), though a full count would give more if clouds soillevels and other things were considered. The next two sides shows this inapproximate scale. The following are areas that need work.• Mesh Size x, y, z (typical 100 km X 100 km X 1 km)• Convection and water vapor too small for mesh• Clouds too small for mesh• Precipitation too small for mesh• Upper air (troposphere) warming issues (mesh or theory)• Seasonal variability not well predicted (mesh or theory)• Elevation gives predictive problems to temperature (mesh or theory)• North South hemisphere differences – why?
Sample of GCM ModelImage from Hadley Center,August, 2007
Problems with the Models• The models mostly assume a static or “base” world temperature with“change” from anthropogenic causes.• The climate models were started to look at items that tracedirectly to man, anthropogenic, for root cause with only somethought given to natural causes.• Key assumptions used such a the life of CO2 in the atmosphere havelittle scientific support.• The model element size, the mesh, is way too large to properlyconsider “key” climate factors such as “clouds.”• Water in the atmosphere and the resulting movement in (evaporation)and out (rain) and the creation of clouds is the most important part ofunderstanding the concept of GW.This area which is the least understood is the most important.• The models appear to have a bias toward a runaway “positivefeedback” situation from CO2 that is not supported by historic records.
• Is the increase in CO2 the “main” reasonthe planet is warming?• For this to be TRUE we must have both– High correlation (move together) &– Cause and Effect (one precedes the other)• Are both of these true?The Question?
CO2 Seems to follow TemperatureFrank Lansner, civil engineer, biotechnologyThis composite graph of actual data from all major temperature peaks of the Antarctic vostok dataconfirms the well known temperature-CO2 relation with ….Temperature as a driver of CO2.
CO2ConcentrationParts per MillionBy VolumeCelciusTemperaturechange“NO” Statistical Correlation between CO2Concentrations and TemperatureSPPI April 09 2009 CO2 Report Page 10
This Chart shows three valuesfor the effect on temperatureon climate on the doubling ofthe concentration of CO2Lindzen uses +.64 C as aradiative forcing valueKondratjew & Moskalenkoshow +.87 C as a radiativeforcing valueCharnock & Shine use +1.45C as a radiative forcing valueWe are at 400 ppm so you cansee that if Lindzen is correctthan almost all of the CO2effect has already occurred.Climate Sensitivity a Key Issue
Historic Temperature and CO201,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000-600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0Millions of Years from PresentCO2inppm12141618202224TempinCCO2 TEMPERATURE LINDZEN CHARNOCKClimate Sensitivity, Not what theIPCC Claims it is!Raw data CO2 & Temperature from Don J. Easterbrook, December, 2009Chart & Climate Model David Pristash July, 1011This Chart shows actual historicplots of CO2 (Black) andTemperature (Blue).The Yellow plot shows aTemperature Plot based on aLindzen’s .64oC RadiativeForcing value. The Red plot isbased on Charnock’s 1.46oCRadiative Forcing value.The IPCC says it is between 2.0oand 4.5oC for a doubling of CO2.Neither plot follow the Blue plot.
• What is the temperature of the plant?• Does it very naturally?• Are there cyclical patterns?Questions on Temperature
• Historical World Mean (WM) TemperatureRange– Low range for WM 11o/12oC, 51.8o/53.6oF– High range for WM 22o/23oC, 71.6o/73.4oF• Present Temperature– 100 year base for WM is 13.9oC, 57.0oF– Current estimate of WM is14.3oC, 57.7oFTemperature Facts
Historically it looks like this.And here is where we are …4,500 542 415 300 200 145 65 1.8Millions of Years Ago32
More Currently We HaveRaw data from Don J. Easterbrook December, 2009Chart David Pristash April, 1011Temperatures on theGreenland Ice Capfrom the End of LastIce AgeTemperature GreenlandYears Before Present-50-45-40-35-30-25-20,000 -17,500 -15,000 -12,500 -10,000 -7,500 -5,000 -2,500 0DegreesCTemperatures Changesover the last 12,500years
How is the Worlds Temperatureeven Determined?• First a Base is established• Then Temperatures are measured as an Anomaly –above and below• Plots are generated showing deviation from thebase.• The calculation of the “base” is critical todetermining the Anomaly• One of the points of contention is the methodsbeing used to collect temperature data.
Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office Base 13.9 degrees Cshown on these charts as 0 degrees
More proof of global warming from NOAA?How do we explain this? A lot more on this later.
World Mean Temperature in Kelvin28628628628728728728728728828828828818811891190119111921193119411951196119711981199120012011Chart from Data (monthly) downloaded from NASA andNOAA April, 2013
Same Information Different Format• Temperature in degrees Celsius – C– 0oC is the point where water freezes• Temperature in degrees Kelvin – K– 0oK is absolute zero– 1oK is 1.8oFahrenheit– 1oK is 1.0oCelsius
Chart from Data (monthly)downloaded from NASA andNOAA April, 2013CO2 goes from ~280 ppm in1880 to about 400 ppm today ---for an increase of 42.9%The Earths’ temperature has beenestimated to have risen from~280oK in 1880 to 287.7oKtoday for an increase of 0.13%Considering the difficulty ineven accurately measuring theearths temperature --- onewonders how this GW issue canget so much traction.Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide - Mauna Loa NOAA& Global Mean Temperature NASA0501001502002503003504004501880188518901895190019051910191519201925193019351940194519501955196019651970197519801985199019952000200520102015ppmCO2050100150200250300350400450TemperatureKCO2 Average CO2 Temperature Average T Mean Low Mean High
PART FOURForecasting Temperaturefrom CO2 levels
Temperature Model based on Trends• Short cycle ~70 years• Long cycle ~1000 years• Small CO2 component• Trends shown on next side• The plots from this model match actualtemperatures as reported by NASA veryclosely, especially the current ones
Chart from Data (monthly) downloaded from NASA and NOAATrends by David Pristash April, 2013Global Mean Temperature From NASAand Developed Trend Models12.012.513.013.514.014.515.015.516.018001825185018751900192519501975200020252050207521002125215021752200DegreesCelsiusTemperature NASA Trend Base Trend Short Trend CO2 Trend ForecastThe Yellow Line isthe NASATemperaturesThe Black Line isthe Long trendThe Blue Line is theShort TrendThe Brown Line isthe CO2 ComponentThe Orange Line isthe sum of the three
Chart from Data (monthly) downloaded from NASA and NOAATrend by David Pristash April, 2013Trend Verses IPCC13.013.514.014.515.015.516.0192019251930193519401945195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005201020152020202520302035204020452050DegreesCNASA Monthly Temperature Trend Forecast IPCC ForecastZooming in to seemore detail andadding the IPCCprojection (RedLine) to theprevious Chart wehave a good pictureof the currentsituation
Detail of Trend Verses IPCC14.014.114.214.314.414.514.614.714.814.915.015.115.22000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015TemperatureCNASA Temperature Trend Forecast IPCC ForecastChart from Data (monthly) downloaded from NASA and NOAATrend by David Pristash April, 2013Zooming in evencloser we can seethe NASAtemperature trendseems to be pullingaway from theIPCC projection.Further the NASAtemperature plotappears to befollowing that ofthe Modeldeveloped here
Chart from Data (monthly)downloaded from NASA andNOAATrends by David PristashApril, 2013This Chart shows the completemodel which runs from 1800 to2200 by month.On this chart the Dark Bluetrace is CO2 (NOAA) and theYellow trace is Temperature(NASA). The Orange trace isthe plot of the Trend ModelThe Red trace is the IPCCprojection based on the variousclimate models.The temperature scale on theright was selected to encompassthe full range of “historic”world temperatures.Trend Analysis of Global Mean TemperatureUsing Current and Historic data for Temperature & CO20100200300400500600180018201840186018801900192019401960198020002020204020602080210021202140216021802200CO2ppm10.012.014.016.018.020.022.024.0TemperatureCCO2 NOAA CO2 Trend Temperature NASA Trend BaseTrend Forecast Mean Low Mean Mean HighIPCC Forecast 2 C Limit
Support for Model• Easterbrook, “Natural Cycles”• Soon, Roberson & Roberson,“Environmental Effects of IncreasedAtmospheric Carbon Dioxide Paper “• Lindzen and Choi, “On thedetermination of climate feedbacks fromERBE data”
• The Earth has had many major shifts intemperature and cycles that are not tied towhat man does.• We moved from a very cold period into awarmer period over 15,000 years ago.• CO2 has been at much higher levelsbefore mankind.• A man made increase in CO2 will notcause the earth to overheat.What we Have Learned48
Part FiveWhy this is a Serious IssueWe Need Lots of Energy
To Convert All Coal to Wind usingactual 2005 EIA information• Coal Plants, 221 mWh each (actual average):– 1,502 Plants 335,892 mWh Name Plate– Generated 235,789 mWh for 70% uptime• Wind Turbines, average 2.5 mWh (max size):– 314,386 Turbines 785,964 mWh Name Plate– Generate 235,789 mWh at 30% uptime
To Convert All Gasoline Vehiclesto Electric, Powered by Wind• 250,844,644 vehicles on road in 2006 (actual):– 138 Billion Gallons of gas used 2010 (actual)– At 114,000 BTU per Gallon = 15.7 QUAD• Wind Turbines, average 2.5 mWh (max size):– 236,000 Turbines 590,000 mWh Name Plate– Generate 177,000 mWh at 30% uptime
Way Too Many Wind Turbines• Combining the two we have:• Wind Turbines, average 2.5 mWh (max size):– 550,386 Turbines 1,375,964 mWh Name Plate– Generate 412,789 mWh at 30% uptime
Summary• Temperatures are rising• Cause and effect notestablished to CO2• Incompleteunderstanding ofcarbon cycle• Climate models are notaccurate enough to usein setting any policyWho Stands toBenefit (Follow theMoney):• Government –Incomeredistribution• GE and Al Gore54
Abbreviations & Sources Used• CRU Climate Research Unit --- University of East Anglia, UK• DOE U.S. Department of Energy• EIA Energy Information Agency (DOE)• EPA Environmental Protection Agency• GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies NASA)• gmt billion metric tons (also gt or Gmt or bmt)• Hadley Centre --- Part of Met Office• IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change• Met Office --- UK National Weather Service• mmt million metric tons• NASA National Aeronautic and Space Administration• NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration• ppb parts per billion (ppbv parts per billion volume)• ppm parts per million (ppmv parts per million volume)• ppt parts per trillion (pptv parts per trillion volume)
Sources of Information• Astrophysics http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/solar/soldata2.html• DOE http://www.energy.gov/• EIA http://www.eia.doe.gov/• Junk Science http://www.junkscience.com/• NASA http://www.nasa.gov/home/• Nature http://www.nature.com/nature/index.html• NOAA http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/• Science and Public Policy Institute http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/• SEED http://www.seed.slb.com/• Surface Stations http://www.surfacestations.org/• UN Statistics http://unstats.un.org/unsd/databases.htm• Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page• World Energy Council http://www.worldenergy.org/57
Other Sources• Robert Ferguson, policy experience in climate changescience• William Happer, Physics Professor at Princeton• Frank Lansner, civil engineer• Richard S. Lindzen professor at MIT• Christopher Monckton, mathematician• S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist• Willie Soon, astrophysicist and geoscientist• Anthony Watts, meteorologist