Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
Wichita Update

Retail and Index

Jeremy Hill
November 2013
US headlines
• U.S. auto sales continues to improve
• U.S. real GDP grew by 2.8%
• U.S. Employment grew by 204,000 in
Oct,...
Components: Current
• Wichita Non-Farm Employment
– Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES)

• Wichita Unemployment rate
– Bureau...
Components: Leading
• Aircraft production index
– Board of Governors - Federal Reserve System

• Kansas Leading index
– Fe...
WSU Current Conditions Index
WSU Wichita Current Conditions Index
Current Conditions Index
Index Components - Wichita MSA
...
Summary - WSU Current
Conditions
• The Wichita economy has improved slightly,
but not solid consistent growth.
• Manufactu...
WSU Leading Conditions Index
WSU Wichita Leading Conditions Index
Leading Conditions Index
Predicted change*
Index Compone...
Summary - WSU Leading
Conditions
• Aircraft production should continue to
improve.
• International outlook is improving, a...
Online Tool
• Index.cedbr.org
Wichita Economy

Questions
Retailers stockpile goods
before the Holidays
Holiday Spending
• More consumers shopping mobile and local
• Two-thirds plan to shop small business or
independent retail...
Total Personal Income YR/YR

Source: BEA
Wichita – Personal Income
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%

8.0%
6.0%

4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008...
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%

-2.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-4.0%
-6.0%...
25.0%

15.0%
5.0%
-5.0%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-15.0%
-25.0%
Wages and salarie...
-2.00%
1995:4
1996:3
1997:2
1998:1
1998:4
1999:3
2000:2
2001:1
2001:4
2002:3
2003:2
2004:1
2004:4
2005:3
2006:2
2007:1
200...
Summary
• Retail sales will likely grow in the forth quarter
• Sustained retail sales is not likely without
continued empl...
Kansas 2013 REVIEWREVIEW

2014 FORECAST

Jeremy Hill
November 2013
CEDBR
DATA
WSU's Center for Economic
Development and Business Research
is a responsive, reliable source of
local, state an...
Wichita Economic Update 11 22-13
Wichita Economic Update 11 22-13
Wichita Economic Update 11 22-13
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Wichita Economic Update 11 22-13

453 views

Published on

An economic update of the Wichita economy using the WSU current and leading economic index. www.index.CEDBR.org

  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Wichita Economic Update 11 22-13

  1. 1. Wichita Update Retail and Index Jeremy Hill November 2013
  2. 2. US headlines • U.S. auto sales continues to improve • U.S. real GDP grew by 2.8% • U.S. Employment grew by 204,000 in Oct, which was above expectation • U.S. Small Firms shaken by shutdown Forecasts GDP Consumer Spending Consumer Price Index Savings Rate Source: Moody's 11-22-13 2013 1.6% 4.4% 1.5% 4.5% 2014 3.1% 5.8% 1.8% 4.8%
  3. 3. Components: Current • Wichita Non-Farm Employment – Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES) • Wichita Unemployment rate – Bureau of Labor Statistics (LAUS) – seasonally adjusted by CEDBR • Manufacturing Weekly Hours worked – Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES) – seasonally adjusted by CEDBR • Manufacturing Earnings – Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES)– seasonally adjusted by CEDBR
  4. 4. Components: Leading • Aircraft production index – Board of Governors - Federal Reserve System • Kansas Leading index – Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia • National production index – Board of Governors - Federal Reserve System • International leading index – Organizations for Economic Co-Operation and Development
  5. 5. WSU Current Conditions Index WSU Wichita Current Conditions Index Current Conditions Index Index Components - Wichita MSA Total Non-farm Employment Unemployment Rate Hours of Production Employees* Earnings of Production Employees* Aug-13 92.9 287,200 6.4% 44.9 $885.20 Monthly Annual Jul-13 % Change % Change 92.4 0.5% 1.0% 286,200 6.5% 43.8 $869.11 0.3% -0.1% 2.5% 1.9% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, data compiled by CEDBR and seasonally adjusted *Manufacturing Weekly Average 0.6% -0.2% 4.2% 3.3%
  6. 6. Summary - WSU Current Conditions • The Wichita economy has improved slightly, but not solid consistent growth. • Manufacturing appears to be poised for a recover, but employment is likely delayed for several more months. • Although unemployment has come down slightly, the labor market has a long ways to go for recovery.
  7. 7. WSU Leading Conditions Index WSU Wichita Leading Conditions Index Leading Conditions Index Predicted change* Index Components Aircraft Production Index Kansas Leading Index National Industrial Production Index International Leading Index Aug-13 93.0 0.18 98.8 1.4 99.5 100.6 Monthly Annual Jul-13 % Change % Change 92.5 0.6% 1.1% 0.13 97.2 1.0 99.1 100.5 1.6% 40.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 55.6% 2.8% 0.9% Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), data compiled by CEDBR *Predicted change in the level of economic activity over the next six months from the current level of economic activity.
  8. 8. Summary - WSU Leading Conditions • Aircraft production should continue to improve. • International outlook is improving, and will start to spill over to the US.
  9. 9. Online Tool • Index.cedbr.org
  10. 10. Wichita Economy Questions
  11. 11. Retailers stockpile goods before the Holidays
  12. 12. Holiday Spending • More consumers shopping mobile and local • Two-thirds plan to shop small business or independent retailer • Top retail location are discount stores • Moderate gains this holiday (4-4.5% increase) • Number of expected gifts have leveled off Source: Deloitte
  13. 13. Total Personal Income YR/YR Source: BEA
  14. 14. Wichita – Personal Income 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Personal income Nonfarm
  15. 15. 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Wages and salaries Supplements to wages and salaries
  16. 16. 25.0% 15.0% 5.0% -5.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -15.0% -25.0% Wages and salaries Supplements to wages and salaries Proprietors' income
  17. 17. -2.00% 1995:4 1996:3 1997:2 1998:1 1998:4 1999:3 2000:2 2001:1 2001:4 2002:3 2003:2 2004:1 2004:4 2005:3 2006:2 2007:1 2007:4 2008:3 2009:2 2010:1 2010:4 2011:3 2012:2 2013:1 2013:4 2014:3 Nominal Taxable Retail Sales 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -4.00% -6.00% Wichita Source: CEDBR Kansas Wichita Forecasted
  18. 18. Summary • Retail sales will likely grow in the forth quarter • Sustained retail sales is not likely without continued employment growth
  19. 19. Kansas 2013 REVIEWREVIEW 2014 FORECAST Jeremy Hill November 2013
  20. 20. CEDBR DATA WSU's Center for Economic Development and Business Research is a responsive, reliable source of local, state and national demographic and economic data. KANSAS INFORMATION DATABASE The Kansas Information Database (KID) is a set of data containing economically pertinent news articles and information on the state of Kansas and the Midwest region. MARKET RESEARCH CEDBR provides customized market research to government, businesses and nonprofit agencies. Research.CEDBR.org FORECASTS CEDBR provides employment and retail sales forecasts, as well as population projections. Presentations.CEDBR.org CEDBR E-CONNECTION CEDBR publishes e-connection, a monthly e-mail newsletter, providing ongoing reports on business and the economy, as well as timely delivery of special reports. Newsletter.CEDBR.org

×