Pert master risk analysis tool

9,127 views

Published on

Oracle primavera Risk Analysis

1 Comment
9 Likes
Statistics
Notes
No Downloads
Views
Total views
9,127
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
29
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
658
Comments
1
Likes
9
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Pert master risk analysis tool

  1. 1. Primavera PERT Master – The Risk Analysis Tool
  2. 2. Presentation Agenda • What is PERT Master ? • Project Risk Management Concepts • Introductory Demonstrations – Importing from Primavera – Quick Risk Templates – Running a Risk Analysis – Risk Register with schedule • Advanced Risk Management – Schedule cost loading techniques – Probabilistic cash flow and profitability breakeven 11/15/13
  3. 3. What is PERT Master ? “Minimize Uncertainty” 11/15/13 Budget // Budget Schedule Schedule Estimate Estimate Total Project Cost • PERT Master Focus Maximize Profit – Specialist in Project Risk Management – Full Lifecycle risk solution Management “Strategic Management Reserve Reserve Decisions” – Faithful to project scheduling Mitigation Mitigation “Maximize • PERT Master Vision Cost/Effort Cost/Effort Return” – “Improved decision making “Proper Contingency Contingency Allocation” through project intelligence”
  4. 4. Life Value Proposition PHASE 1 PHASE 22 PHASE PHASE 33 PHASE PHASE 44 PHASE Opportunity FEED Front End A/B/C, own) Engineering Design Execution (e.g. oil field) Alternative selection (rig Wild Guess (WAG) -15% to +30% Estimate +/-10% Estimate •High estimate uncertainty •Little Known about risk events Capital Schedule based Market/Invest Investment risk cost risk ment risk analysis analysis analysis “DOING RIGHT PROJECTS” 11/15/13 PHASE 5 Operations Detailed Eng. & Detailed Eng. & SS Procurement Procurement A A N N C +/- 3% Estimate No Estimate C Uncertainty TT II O •Estimate uncertainty – Low O N •Discrete risk events N Risk event / Risk event register monitoring analysis “DOING PROJECTS RIGHT” PLAN YOUR WORK WORK YOUR PLAN
  5. 5. Life Value Proposition CORPORATE REVENUE ANALYSIS PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS PROJECT ANALYSIS PHASE 1 PHASE 22 PHASE PHASE 33 PHASE PHASE 44 PHASE Opportunity Alternative selection (rig FEED Front End A/B/C, own) Engineering Design Execution -15% to +30% Estimate +/-10% Estimate (e.g. oil field) WAG •High estimate uncertainty •Little Known about risk events Capital Schedule based Market/Invest Investment risk cost risk ment risk analysis analysis analysis “DOING RIGHT PROJECTS” Operations Detailed Eng. & Detailed Eng. & SS Procurement Procurement A A N N C +/- 3% Estimate No Estimate C Uncertainty TT II O •Estimate uncertainty – Low O N •Discrete risk events N Risk event / Risk event register monitoring analysis “DOING PROJECTS RIGHT” PLAN YOUR WORK 11/15/13 PHASE 5 WORK YOUR PLAN
  6. 6. Risk Vs Schedule • Realistic /Most Likely • Aggressive / Optimistic • Cautious / Pessimistic • Scale to Fit 11/15/13
  7. 7. Types of Risks • Uncertainty – PERT Master handles uncertainty by using three point estimate distributions minimum, most likely and maximum • Risk Events – PERT Master handles risk events by using risk register to enter possible events along with estimates of each one’s probability and potential impacts on duration, cost and project quality Uncertainty + Risk Events = Total Risk Exposure 11/15/13
  8. 8. Types of Risk - Uncertainty E.g. How long does it take to do wiring? Duration/ Duration/ Cost Cost 11/15/13
  9. 9. Types of Risk Activity A Activity B ? ? E.g. Do we need to replace old wiring? Activity C 11/15/13
  10. 10. Branching – Probabilistic & Conditional Scenario: Renovate the Premises – Remove wiring (50% probability) – Repair wiring (40% probability) – Install new wiring (10% probability) 11/15/13
  11. 11. Template Quick Risk 11/15/13
  12. 12. Types Of Risks - Risk Events • Single Impact • Series of Impact • Multiple exclusive impacts • Multiple impacts to multiple activities 11/15/13
  13. 13. Risk Register 11/15/13
  14. 14. Risk Register 11/15/13
  15. 15. Monte Carlo Simulation • Range forms an envelope • One segment is selected for each envelope • Hidden critical paths revealed 7 8 Min 11/15/13 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Likely Max
  16. 16. Monte Carlo Simulation • Range forms an envelope • One segment is selected for each envelope • Hidden critical paths revealed ITERATION 1 2 10 DAYS 9 DAYS 14 DAYS 3 17 DAYS 4 11 DAYS 5 7 6 DAYS 10 DAYS 7 12 DAYS 8 9 6 DAYS … 7 8 Min 11/15/13 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Likely Max
  17. 17. PERT Master Risk Analysis Methodology • Risk Ready State – Schedule : Sound logic – Scheduling errors • Risk Inputs – Estimate Uncertainty: “Quick Risk” – Risk Events: risk register • Risk Impacts – Map risks to tasks • Risk Analysis – Monte Carlo Simulation – Risk hot spots 11/15/13
  18. 18. PERT Master Risk Analysis Methodology • Risk Response – Determination of Contingency – Mitigation Scenarios – Probabilistic cashflow 11/15/13
  19. 19. Plan Validation: Schedule Check 11/15/13
  20. 20. Initial Risk Inputs – Quick Risk Analysis 11/15/13
  21. 21. Accuracy with Ease 11/15/13
  22. 22. Risk Outputs 11/15/13

×