Elevated atmospheric CO 2  and wheat production in Australia Glenn Fitzgerald, Michael Tausz, Garry O’Leary, Saman Senewee...
Background
Elevated CO 2  Interactions <ul><li>[CO 2 ] is rising (~385 ppm currently) </li></ul><ul><li>Temperature is rising </li></...
<ul><li>Glasshouses </li></ul><ul><li>Open topped chambers </li></ul><ul><li>Gradient tunnels </li></ul><ul><li>Enclosed C...
FACE Internationally  <ul><li>TasFACE </li></ul><ul><li>Tree chambers at Hawkesbury </li></ul><ul><li>SoyFACE (Illinois, U...
AGFACE Framework Crop modelling Landscape & future climate models Prediction “ what if” Agronomic responses (traits, grain...
Australian Wheat Belt Horsham & Walpeup
AGFACE (laboratory w/o walls) <ul><li>Range of environments for  wheat  (water, N, temperature, variety, soil type) to tes...
Experimental Results
Yield Response (%) <ul><li>Yield stimulation due to eCO 2 : </li></ul><ul><li>Changes to production </li></ul><ul><li>More...
Straw N and Grain Protein Response <ul><li>Decreases in grain protein:  </li></ul><ul><li>human nutrition impacts </li></u...
<ul><li>SR: Pathogen fecundity, disease progress and cultivar resistance  not significantly influenced  by eCO 2 </li></ul...
Modelling Results
Increases and Decreases in Yield <ul><li>BUT, </li></ul><ul><li>Despite experimental yield increases, due to future predic...
Shift in Sowing Date Maintains Yields Sowing 1 July Historic Sowing 1 Aug 2050 preliminary
Prediction:  Changes over Space & Time <ul><li>Crop yield decreases by decade ( present-day long-season cv.  type) </li></...
Can we adapt? <ul><li>Breeding </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tillering response (& other traits) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long s...
We invite collaborations in our AGFACE research Collaborators : La Trobe University Monash University CSIRO (pests, modell...
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Elevated atmospheric CO2 and wheat production in Australia - Glenn Fitzgerald

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  • National Grains FACE Array (NGFA) Preamble Present day atmospheric CO 2 levels have risen from 295 ppm (1900) to 367 ppm in the year 2000 (UNEP figures). By 2100 these levels will reach between 490 and 1260 ppm (US National Climatic Data Centre estimates). Concurrent with this CO 2 rise will be rises in global temperature of up to 4.5 o C, and global shifts in rainfall amount, intensity and distribution. A naive analysis suggests that C3 plants such as wheat will increase their yields by 50% in response to the elevated CO 2 . Taken alone this could benefit wheat growers in Australia by as much as $1.5 Billion in today’s prices. However, such an analysis ignores the reality of substantial interactions in the field with temperature, water and other environment factor changes. The extent and direction of these interactions are unknown. Importantly it would be Australia’s relative benefit compared to other wheat growing regions and global demand that would determine the relative effect on Australian wheat yields and value (eg wetter and cooler regions such as Europe &amp; Canada may benefit from elevated CO 2 , plus warmer growing seasons &amp; higher rainfall). Some Australian wheat growing regions may suffer due to higher temperatures leading to reduced water use efficiencies plus lower water availability. To plan future actions at both local and national levels will require an ability to predict environments and grain yield responses to those environments across Australia and the world. While environment prediction is well advanced, validated predictions of grain responses do not exist in Australia.
  • Link field experiments with modelling and climate prediction
  • Only FACE to study so many interactions simultaneously eCO2 with interactions least studied Target 550 ppm in 2050 but now more likely in 2040-2045
  • The two figures are rust spores under the microscope and stripe rust symptoms on wheat
  • Elevated atmospheric CO2 and wheat production in Australia - Glenn Fitzgerald

    1. 1. Elevated atmospheric CO 2 and wheat production in Australia Glenn Fitzgerald, Michael Tausz, Garry O’Leary, Saman Seneweera, Sabine Posch, Robert Norton, Mahabubur Mollah, Jason Brand, Roger Armstrong, Nicole Mathers, Jo Luck, Piotr Trebicki, Wendy Griffiths, Joe Panozzo, James Nuttall, Debra Partington
    2. 2. Background
    3. 3. Elevated CO 2 Interactions <ul><li>[CO 2 ] is rising (~385 ppm currently) </li></ul><ul><li>Temperature is rising </li></ul><ul><li>Water availability is changing </li></ul><ul><li>All affect crop growth, yield, quality </li></ul><ul><li>[CO 2 ] is rising (~385 ppm currently) </li></ul><ul><li>[CO 2 ] is rising (~385 ppm currently) </li></ul><ul><li>Temperature is rising </li></ul>Impact of eCO 2 on wheat industry = assess interactions of these 3 factors
    4. 4. <ul><li>Glasshouses </li></ul><ul><li>Open topped chambers </li></ul><ul><li>Gradient tunnels </li></ul><ul><li>Enclosed Chambers </li></ul><ul><li>Free Air CO 2 Enrichment ( FACE ) </li></ul>Techniques to Study elevated CO 2 FACE provides the most realistic assessment of elevated CO 2 on plant/crop responses because plants are not enclosed.
    5. 5. FACE Internationally <ul><li>TasFACE </li></ul><ul><li>Tree chambers at Hawkesbury </li></ul><ul><li>SoyFACE (Illinois, US) </li></ul><ul><li>CAS FACE Wuxi </li></ul><ul><li>CAAS FACE Changping </li></ul><ul><li>RiceFACE phase II </li></ul>> 30 sites around the globe Horsham & Walpeup
    6. 6. AGFACE Framework Crop modelling Landscape & future climate models Prediction “ what if” Agronomic responses (traits, grain quality)  pre-breeders Physiology  explain agronomic responses Soil  understand C and N dynamics (cropping systems) Pests and diseases  plant-pest dynamics Validation & confidence Includes changes to temperature and rainfall Measure Model Predict Adapt Field experiment
    7. 7. Australian Wheat Belt Horsham & Walpeup
    8. 8. AGFACE (laboratory w/o walls) <ul><li>Range of environments for wheat (water, N, temperature, variety, soil type) to test interactions with eCO 2 (550 ppm) </li></ul><ul><li>Quantify agronomic & physiological effects of eCO 2 in low rainfall (330-450 mm/yr) / low yield (1-4 t/ha) production zones </li></ul><ul><li>Provide validation data under future [CO 2 ] for crop modelling of wheat quality and yield </li></ul><ul><li>Industry and government to inform adaptation policy </li></ul><ul><li>Understand and model changes to crop-pest dynamics </li></ul><ul><li>Soil type & crop-N cycling interactions </li></ul>7.5 ha
    9. 9. Experimental Results
    10. 10. Yield Response (%) <ul><li>Yield stimulation due to eCO 2 : </li></ul><ul><li>Changes to production </li></ul><ul><li>More stimulation at drier location (Walpeup): </li></ul><ul><li>Changes in water use efficiency? </li></ul>% increase due to eCO 2 1 Horsham = mean Yitpi & Janz 2 Walpeup = Yitpi only +49 +61 -- Walpeup 2 Year Horsham 1 2007 Yield +22 2008 Yield +25 2009 Yield +26
    11. 11. Straw N and Grain Protein Response <ul><li>Decreases in grain protein: </li></ul><ul><li>human nutrition impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Increases in N uptakes: </li></ul><ul><li>N management implications </li></ul>% increase due to eCO 2 1 Horsham = mean 2 cultivars, 2 Walpeup = 1 cultivar -13 -- -11 +63 -- -- Walpeup 2 Year Horsham 1 2007 N uptake -- Grain protein -5 2008 N uptake +24 Grain protein -4 2009 N uptake +25 Grain protein -8
    12. 12. <ul><li>SR: Pathogen fecundity, disease progress and cultivar resistance not significantly influenced by eCO 2 </li></ul><ul><li>May not be a disease risk in future </li></ul><ul><li>CR: Fungal biomass of Fusarium pseudograminerarum significantly increased in wheat grown under eCO 2 </li></ul><ul><li>In absence of high levels of varietal resistance, crown rot will result in a reduction in yield (and quality) in future climates, particularly in drier years </li></ul>Wheat Stripe Rust & Crown Rot
    13. 13. Modelling Results
    14. 14. Increases and Decreases in Yield <ul><li>BUT, </li></ul><ul><li>Despite experimental yield increases, due to future predicted changes in rainfall and increases in temperature: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Semi-arid zone: Yield LOSS (-10 to -20%) in North West Victoria </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>HRZ: Yield GAINS (+10 to +20%) in the South West </li></ul></ul>
    15. 15. Shift in Sowing Date Maintains Yields Sowing 1 July Historic Sowing 1 Aug 2050 preliminary
    16. 16. Prediction: Changes over Space & Time <ul><li>Crop yield decreases by decade ( present-day long-season cv. type) </li></ul><ul><li>Southern region (HRZ - dark blue ) yields still increasing in 2070 </li></ul>CSIRO CCAM Mark 3 present-day long-season cv.
    17. 17. Can we adapt? <ul><li>Breeding </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Tillering response (& other traits) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long season cultivar development </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Crop management </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sowing date </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rotation systems </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Modelling informs: where, when, how much? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Shifts in agricultural production across landscape </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Infrastructure </li></ul></ul>
    18. 18. We invite collaborations in our AGFACE research Collaborators : La Trobe University Monash University CSIRO (pests, modelling, cultivars) USDA-ARS Harvard Medical School University of Illinois (SoyFACE) Kansas State University NZ Plant & Food Research International Plant Nutrition Institute NASA CIMMYT (Mexico) EMBRAPA (Brazil) University of Idaho University of Florida

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