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CCCW-Chief Scientist Wales -2012-06_27


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Reflections on role of science in communication, innovation, and transition to low Carbon, Professor John Harries, Chief Scientific Adviser for Wales

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CCCW-Chief Scientist Wales -2012-06_27

  1. 1. Science Strategy Science for Wales : Corporate slide master With guidelines for corporate presentations Reflections on role of science in communication, innovation, and transition to low C Professor John Harries, Chief Scientific Adviser for Wales, and Professor of Earth Observation, Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College, London27 June 2012 CCCW_Barri 1
  2. 2. Two key themes: -The role of science in communication and engagement on climate change; -The role of science strategy in innovation and transition to the low carbon economy. Corporate slide master With guidelines for corporate presentations Contents 1. What has the Welsh Government Science for Wales strategy actually produced? What is the implementation plan, Sêr Cymru? 2. Role of science in climate science communications. and engagement. 3. Role of science strategy in innovation and transition to the low carbon economy. 4. A real example!27 June 2012 CCCW_Barri 2
  3. 3. 1. Science for Wales: A new science strategy for Wales Major changes! 2010 saw the first Chief Scientific Adviser for Wales (CSAW), and appointment of the Science Advisory Council for Wales (SACW). First major task for CSAW, with Council, has been to write new Science Strategy for Wales. Many visits, discussions, consultations, across whole of Wales, over 18 months. Possibly the most thorough review of facts on science in Wales. SACW fully engaged with some fascinating and penetrating discussions, and strong guidance to the CSAW. Diolch yn fawr!27 June 2012 CCCW_Barri 3
  4. 4. Cabinet February, July 2011; stakeholders autumn 2011, Cabinet approval6 December 2011. FM Launch 12 March 2012. The new structure, and strategy development First Minister for BETS Survey of Survey of Minister University third sector and Science Cabinet Office of the Chief Scientific Survey of Adviser for Companies’ Wales R&D Survey of National Assets: Science National Museums, Advisory Gardens, Council Libraries for Wales Survey of Welsh Government procedures 27 June 2012 CCCW_Barri 4Community Networks
  5. 5. Science for Wales: The strengths, weaknesses and ‘Grand Challenges’ of Welsh science • A good deal of research in Wales is excellent, some is truly world class; • Focus on our strengths and prioritise. • BUT, should do better (3.3% against 5%:); • Increase inward investment (facilities, institutes, research Grants, companies, ...); • Work with RCs, serve on committees, boards, be involved; • Vital educational base; • Need to plan towards innovation and application, because economy, quality jobs are the aim;27 June 2012 CCCW_Barri 5
  6. 6. The strengths and ‘Grand Challenges’ of Welsh science‘Grand Challenges’ Current strengths Future theme Wales as an advanced health and life sciences country. An innovative, Medical technology (especially in evidence- based health and social vitro diagnostics) neuroscience, care system for Wales, based on anLife and Health sciences wound healing, health informatics and human nutrition, crop breeding integrated health and social care and food security. database, and on an excellent life sciences R&D foundation. Wales as a green laboratory (WalesEnvironment, energy & Climate change, environment, crops, led the world into fossil fuel, and willlow carbon forestry and low carbon lead the world out) Developing innovations and technology for the 21st century,Advanced engineering & From nano- to large-scale, materials applied to challenges in environment,materials and machines aerospace, manufacturing, health and materials.Education and STEM outreach activity: Enhancing the value, the take-up, and confidence and trust in science forthe people of Wales.Digital economy - e-infrastructure, high performance computing (HPC) programmes and all aspects of digitalcontentIntellectual Property: ensuring the nation, both public and private, benefits from science investments 27 June 2012 CCCW_Barri 6Blue skies research: Allowing for new ideas, concepts and theories that will feed future R&D and innovations
  7. 7. . What is the implementation plan? Sêr Cymru Sêr Attract international Cymru “stars”, provide kit, support staff, in priority areas, to Initial augment existing funding excellence, provide more From WG leadership £50M over Set up National Research 5years. Networks, with Director, to oversee preparation, negotiation, Augmented of bids, through to selection and by implementation. Universities, by WEFO, Sêr Cymru named chairs; Prizes; by others? Eminent lectures; links to industry and commerce; national conference.... 27 June 2012 CCCW_Barri 7
  8. 8. 2. Role of science in climate science communications and engagement - Understanding; facts; - Objectivity: Avoidance of spin or cherry-picking: awkward facts from a piece of work cannot be ignored, while accepting others. - The Climate system is amazingly , and beautifully complex: represent complex ideas in accessible way; example is of forcing and feedback processes (example); - Understanding true meaning of error and uncertainty, predictability and chaotic systems (example). - Combining good physical science with good social science and good policy making. - STEM engagement; - Popularisation, but not dumbing-down to triviality27 June 2012 CCCW_Barri 8
  9. 9. Terrestrial Energy Budget: feedbacks and forcings Feedback loops, eg: Other hydrological cycle, Forcings,eg: circulation patterns, Direct increase in A (and cloud cover & type smaller increase in g) delayed SW LW responses due to volcano (S = ITS/4 1370/4 S (1 – A) = (1 – g) TS4 + p1 + p2 + … = 342 Wm-2) greenhouse forcing Delay due to slow feedback processes:Measures of the SW, LW and FN (= p eg. deep ocean i i Measurement of spectrally) fluxes give information on greenhouse warming resolved radiances can makeforcing, cloud and water vapourfeedback…..i.e. on climate processes and these relations highly specificclimate change to processes 9
  10. 10. 3. Role of science strategy in innovation and transition to the low carbon economy. - Research produces new ideas, processes, techniques, skilled and imaginative people; - Science must be excellent, and well connected to innovation processes; - Balance between fundamental science, theory, observation, application to real world, modeling, prediction must be maintained; - Science and Innovation must feedback on each other; - In Wales, Science strategy and Innovation Strategy are being produced in close co-operation.27 June 2012 CCCW_Barri 10
  11. 11. 4. A real example!• Consider the energy balance of planet Earth, recognising that energy is entering and leaving the Earth at all electromagnetic wavelengths.• Design a spectrometer to fly in space and to measure energy leaving the Earth, at all wavelengths.• Build it, test it, calibrate it, launch it on a very large can of explosive materials (a rocket), test its working via a complex communications/tracking system, then measure Earth’s heat (IR) spectrum over many years.• Compare well-calibrated spectra in 1970 with spectra for same place, local time, season, say in 1997.• Is there a difference? If climate is changing there must be!
  12. 12. Detection of changes inforcing of climate inobserved Earth spectra Uncertainty..natural variability...long term trends? Nature, March 2001 Measurements of observed spectra over central Pacific in 1970 and 1997 show changes in greenhouse forcing. Used NASA IRIS (1970) and NASDA IMG (1997) spectra. NASA Langley: Distinguished Public 15 November 2011 Service Medal award 12
  13. 13. There are clear signals of changes in CO2, CH4, etc., but also T/H2O mixing. Pure What is the uncertainty? rotation H2O 2 H2O CFCl3 O3 (highly Fig 3 variable) CH4 CO2 NASA Langley: Distinguished Public16 December 2008 CAVIAR Annual Meeting 2008 1315 November 2011 Service Medal award 13
  14. 14. The way forward• Strong WG support for strengthening Welsh science base, and for using this strength to inform our people on several difficult problems, including climate;• WG providing significant new money to kick-start new programme of Sêr Cymru...leveraging also possible;• Wales should be able to win a „par‟ success rate from the UK RCs and other competitive, peer reviewed, funders, OR BETTER. Raising to par would mean £27M - £ 64M more pa.• Focus will be on our strengths and our three priorities, Advanced engineering & materials, Health and Life sciences, and Environment, energy & low carbon, plus the 4 underpinning themes.• Priorities have been selected in basis of (a) excellence, (b) strengths, and (c) closeness to innovation pipeline.• Welsh Government is looking for us, the science and engineering community, to respond positively to this new initiative: success will breed success. 14
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  16. 16. Harries and Belotti, J Clim., 23, 1277-129027 June 2012 CCCW_Barri 16
  17. 17. Broadband satellite measurements of ERB SWWe are interested in the energy balance of the Earth, LW between:(a)Shortwave (SW) absorbed solar radiation; and(b)Longwave (LW) emitted infrared radiation From CERES project. Data rather blurry: monthly27 June 2012 averages CCCW_Barri 17
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  23. 23. 1. Science for Wales: The strengths, weaknesses and ‘Grand Challenges’ of Welsh science • A good deal of research in Wales is excellent, some is truly world class; • RAE 2008 found 49% rated 3*+4*, 14% rated 4*; numerous peaks; • Very good citations; • But we need more! • Focus on our strengths and priorities; • Focus on excellence as first criterion; • Advertise our successes more, but avoid hyperbole! • BUT, should do better (3.3% against 5%:); • 1.7% of RC income is worth £27M each year: • From all sources, worth £64M each year . • Scotland winning almost 2x “pro-rata”; • Wales winning about 0.6 x “pro rata” ; • England wins about 1 x “pro rata”, because they have 85% of the resources.27 June 2012 CCCW_Barri 23
  24. 24. Science for Wales: A new science strategy for Wales Cabinet highly supportive, involved in several discussions, endorsed the direction of travel, and adopted Science for Wales as the Strategy of the Welsh Government, on 6 December 2011. Science for Wales was formally launched by First Minister of Wales, Rt Hon Carwyn Jones, AM , yesterday, 12 March 2012. Provides a direction for science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and other “sciences”, and for future innovation strategies.27 June 2012 CCCW_Barri 24 lications/120312sfw/?lang=en