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CBO's Outlook for the Economy

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Congressional Budget Office
Congressional Budget Office

Presentation by Doug Elmendorf, CBO Director, to the National Association for Business Economics

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Congressional Budget Office CBO’s Outlook for the Economy Presentation to the National Association for Business Economics Douglas W. Elmendorf Director February 24, 2014 Notes for the slides can be found at the end of the presentation.
How will the labor market evolve? How rapidly will potential output grow? How rapidly will actual output grow? What will be the paths of inflation, interest rates, and the labor share of income? What is the resulting budget outlook? CBO
How Will the Labor Market Evolve? CBO
In our view, the slow recovery of the labor market largely reflects slow growth in the demand for goods and services, with a smaller role for structural factors. We estimate that considerable slack remains in the labor market. The economy is about 6 million jobs short of where it would be if the unemployment rate was back down to its prerecession level and the participation rate was back up to the level it would be without the current cyclical weakness. CBO
Unemployment Rate CBO
CBO estimates that… Of the roughly 2 percentage-point net increase in the unemployment rate between the end of 2007 and the end of 2013, the portions that can be attributed to different factors: Percentage Points About 1 Cyclical weakness in demand for goods and services About 1 Structural factors About 1/2 About 1/2 CBO Stigma and erosion of skills from long-term unemployment Decrease in efficiency of matching workers and jobs, at least partly from mismatches in skills and locations
Actual and Natural Rates of Unemployment CBO
CBO projects that… In 2024, the unemployment rate will be 5½ percent. The difference of ½ percentage point relative to the rate of about 5 percent at the end of 2007 can be attributed to: Percentage Points About 1/4 About 1/4 CBO Stigma and erosion of skills from longterm unemployment (thus, the natural rate of unemployment will be 5¼ percent) Average historical shortfall of output relative to potential
Gap Between Actual and Potential GDP CBO
Rate of Participation in the Labor Force CBO
CBO estimates that… Of the roughly 3 percentage-point net decline in the labor force participation rate between the end of 2007 and the end of 2013, the portions that can be attributed to different factors: Percentage Points About 1½ About 1 Cyclical weakness in job prospects and wages About 1/2 CBO Long-term trends (primarily aging) Discouraged workers who have dropped out of the labor force permanently
Rate of Participation in the Labor Force CBO
CBO estimates that… In 2024, the labor force participation rate will be 60.9 percent. The difference of roughly 5 percentage points relative to the rate of about 65.9 percent at the end of 2007 can be attributed to: Percentage Points About 3½ A little under ½ Discouraged workers who have dropped out of the labor force permanently About 1 CBO Long-term trends (primarily aging) Affordable Care Act and real bracket creep in the individual income tax
Share of the Population That Is Employed CBO
How Rapidly Will Potential Output Grow? CBO
According to CBO’s analysis … Average Annual Growth 1950-2013 Estimated Potential GDP 3.3 2.1 Potential Labor Force CBO 2014-2024 Projected 1.5 0.5
How Rapidly Will Actual Output Grow? CBO
GDP and Potential GDP CBO
CBO projects, under current law, that … The output gap will close from about 4 percent at the end of 2013 to about ½ percent at the end of 2017 and in subsequent years. Real GDP growth will average 2.5 percent per year between 2014 and 2024. CBO
Real GDP CBO
What Will Be the Paths of Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Labor Share of Income? CBO
Inflation CBO
Interest Rates CBO
Hourly Labor Compensation CBO
Labor Income CBO
What Is the Resulting Budget Outlook? CBO
Total Federal Deficits or Surpluses CBO
Spending and Revenues Projected in CBO’s Baseline, Compared With Levels in 1974 CBO
Federal Debt Held by the Public CBO
Endnotes Slides 3 through 15: For more information, see The Slow Recovery of the Labor Market (February 2014), www.cbo.gov/publication/45011 and The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024 (February 2014), www.cbo.gov/publication/45010. Slides 16 through 28: For more information, see The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024 (February 2014), www.cbo.gov/publication/45010. Slide 27: Major health care programs consist of Medicare, Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and subsidies offered through health insurance exchanges and related spending. (Medicare spending is net of offsetting receipts.) Other mandatory spending is all mandatory spending other than that for Social Security and major health care programs. CBO

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CBO's Outlook for the Economy

  • 1. Congressional Budget Office CBO’s Outlook for the Economy Presentation to the National Association for Business Economics Douglas W. Elmendorf Director February 24, 2014 Notes for the slides can be found at the end of the presentation.
  • 2. How will the labor market evolve? How rapidly will potential output grow? How rapidly will actual output grow? What will be the paths of inflation, interest rates, and the labor share of income? What is the resulting budget outlook? CBO
  • 3. How Will the Labor Market Evolve? CBO
  • 4. In our view, the slow recovery of the labor market largely reflects slow growth in the demand for goods and services, with a smaller role for structural factors. We estimate that considerable slack remains in the labor market. The economy is about 6 million jobs short of where it would be if the unemployment rate was back down to its prerecession level and the participation rate was back up to the level it would be without the current cyclical weakness. CBO
  • 6. CBO estimates that… Of the roughly 2 percentage-point net increase in the unemployment rate between the end of 2007 and the end of 2013, the portions that can be attributed to different factors: Percentage Points About 1 Cyclical weakness in demand for goods and services About 1 Structural factors About 1/2 About 1/2 CBO Stigma and erosion of skills from long-term unemployment Decrease in efficiency of matching workers and jobs, at least partly from mismatches in skills and locations
  • 7. Actual and Natural Rates of Unemployment CBO
  • 8. CBO projects that… In 2024, the unemployment rate will be 5½ percent. The difference of ½ percentage point relative to the rate of about 5 percent at the end of 2007 can be attributed to: Percentage Points About 1/4 About 1/4 CBO Stigma and erosion of skills from longterm unemployment (thus, the natural rate of unemployment will be 5¼ percent) Average historical shortfall of output relative to potential
  • 9. Gap Between Actual and Potential GDP CBO
  • 10. Rate of Participation in the Labor Force CBO
  • 11. CBO estimates that… Of the roughly 3 percentage-point net decline in the labor force participation rate between the end of 2007 and the end of 2013, the portions that can be attributed to different factors: Percentage Points About 1½ About 1 Cyclical weakness in job prospects and wages About 1/2 CBO Long-term trends (primarily aging) Discouraged workers who have dropped out of the labor force permanently
  • 12. Rate of Participation in the Labor Force CBO
  • 13. CBO estimates that… In 2024, the labor force participation rate will be 60.9 percent. The difference of roughly 5 percentage points relative to the rate of about 65.9 percent at the end of 2007 can be attributed to: Percentage Points About 3½ A little under ½ Discouraged workers who have dropped out of the labor force permanently About 1 CBO Long-term trends (primarily aging) Affordable Care Act and real bracket creep in the individual income tax
  • 14. Share of the Population That Is Employed CBO
  • 15. How Rapidly Will Potential Output Grow? CBO
  • 16. According to CBO’s analysis … Average Annual Growth 1950-2013 Estimated Potential GDP 3.3 2.1 Potential Labor Force CBO 2014-2024 Projected 1.5 0.5
  • 17. How Rapidly Will Actual Output Grow? CBO
  • 18. GDP and Potential GDP CBO
  • 19. CBO projects, under current law, that … The output gap will close from about 4 percent at the end of 2013 to about ½ percent at the end of 2017 and in subsequent years. Real GDP growth will average 2.5 percent per year between 2014 and 2024. CBO
  • 21. What Will Be the Paths of Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Labor Share of Income? CBO
  • 26. What Is the Resulting Budget Outlook? CBO
  • 27. Total Federal Deficits or Surpluses CBO
  • 28. Spending and Revenues Projected in CBO’s Baseline, Compared With Levels in 1974 CBO
  • 29. Federal Debt Held by the Public CBO
  • 30. Endnotes Slides 3 through 15: For more information, see The Slow Recovery of the Labor Market (February 2014), www.cbo.gov/publication/45011 and The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024 (February 2014), www.cbo.gov/publication/45010. Slides 16 through 28: For more information, see The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024 (February 2014), www.cbo.gov/publication/45010. Slide 27: Major health care programs consist of Medicare, Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and subsidies offered through health insurance exchanges and related spending. (Medicare spending is net of offsetting receipts.) Other mandatory spending is all mandatory spending other than that for Social Security and major health care programs. CBO