The Social Dimensions of Climate Change    Reconciling climate change and development                  The Washington Cent...
PURPOSE of today’s lectureTo demonstrate WHY a socialdimensions of climate changeperspective contributes to a moreholistic...
SCOPE of today’s lecture๏ What are the social dimensions of   climate change?๏ Understanding vulnerability and   resilienc...
Climate Change: An assessment Unequivocal means that climate change is real and undeniable Accelerating means that the eff...
Climate Change: human contribution                                     Power                                     Transport...
Climate Change and Development                   An additional stress on an already stressed systemThe Social Dimensions o...
IPCC projected natural impacts Temperature rises, extreme weather events, changes in hydrological cycles, sea level rise, ...
Vulnerability  Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change  and variation in which...
Exposure to Risk Exposure - the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is subjec...
Six Climate Threats: Top Twelve Countries Most at Risk                        Exposure to Risk                Drought     ...
Sensitivity Sensitivity - Intersecting inequalities - produce different experiences of climate change impacts:            ...
SensitivityWho are vulnerable? ๏   Women ๏   Indigenous Peoples ๏   The urban poor ๏   Inhabitants of small island     sta...
Sensitivity Climate change will exert an additional stress on an already sensitive system                 90% of the world...
Adaptive CapacityStrengthening adaptive capacity by building assets, capital and resources         ๏ Human         ๏ Socia...
ResilienceResilience occurs where adaptivecapacity is strong, inequalities areaddressed, and exposure minimized.It reflects...
Complex social response: Loss of livelihoods ๏    Livelihood sources of the poor are usually narrow and      climate-sensi...
Complex social response: Health and fatalities๏    Vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue and yellow     fever are ...
Complex social response: Migration and displacement๏   By 2050, up to 200 million people may be permanently    displaced d...
Increased incidence of violent conflict๏   Climate change acts as a “threat multiplier” that heightens    the conditions fo...
Damage to infrastructure and utilities๏    Slow and rapid climate impacts destroys assets and     infrastructure๏    Publi...
Where are we now?                                                Lead (1) - Shaping policy                                ...
Kyoto                                                Missed opportunities and failed promises                             ...
The Building Blocks  ๏ Mitigation  ๏ Reduced Emissions    from Deforestation and    Degradation (REDD)  ๏ Adaptation  ๏ Te...
Renewable Energy: Co-benefits๏ GHG Reductions๏ Economic returns for those who innovate๏ Employment and local development๏ I...
Adaptation         ๏ Planned versus           autonomous adaptation         ๏ First Generation         ๏ Second Generation...
Technology๏ Research and innovation๏ Investment and political will๏ Development and deployment๏ Access and supporting stru...
FinanceEstimates put the cost of climate change at between$4bn and $109bn per year (Stern 2006 / UNDP 2007)               ...
Finance                                                                 CDM and Carbon Offset Markets                     ...
Governance                                                improved policies, processes and outcomes     “The great tragedy...
Scales and Principles   Vulnerable communities are least responsible for the cause and least able to deal with theGlobal: ...
The Social Dimensions of Climate Change Concluding thoughts Climate change impacts are already altering the context for de...
Possible Effects of Climate Change Policy: CO-BENEFITS                                            NEGATIVE SOCIAL IMPACTS ...
What can you do?                                                Lead (2) - The Four Cs:                                   ...
Thank you!    carina.bachofen@gmail.comThe Social Dimensions of Climate Change:          The Washington Center   Reconcili...
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The Social Dimensions of Climate Change

  1. 1. The Social Dimensions of Climate Change Reconciling climate change and development The Washington Center Washington, DC | 6 December 2010 Presentation by Carina Bachofen carina.bachofen@gmail.com
  2. 2. PURPOSE of today’s lectureTo demonstrate WHY a socialdimensions of climate changeperspective contributes to a moreholistic analysis of climate changeimpacts on human and socialsystemsTo understand HOW thisperspective can inform sustainabledevelopment interventionsThe Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  3. 3. SCOPE of today’s lecture๏ What are the social dimensions of climate change?๏ Understanding vulnerability and resilience๏ Complex social responses to climate change and the link to development๏ Importance of governance๏ Devising climate-resilient development policies at Cancun and beyondThe Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  4. 4. Climate Change: An assessment Unequivocal means that climate change is real and undeniable Accelerating means that the effect is getting worse “Very Likely” Anthropogenic implies a probability of more than 90% that it is human induced and not the result of natural causesThe Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  5. 5. Climate Change: human contribution Power Transport Industry Buildings Land use Agriculture Waste Other energy
  6. 6. Climate Change and Development An additional stress on an already stressed systemThe Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  7. 7. IPCC projected natural impacts Temperature rises, extreme weather events, changes in hydrological cycles, sea level rise, threats to unique systems and biodiversity, increase in flooding and storm surges complex social responsesLoss of livelihoods; health/fatalities; food/water insecurity; migration; conflict; damage to infrastructure; decline in natural systems services; distribution of impacts equity Process and substantive outcomes for vulnerable populations human rights and other implications Adequate standard of living; minimum means of subsistence; health; food; water; self-determination; property; culture; life; education; gender, indigenous and children
  8. 8. Vulnerability Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation in which a system is EXPOSED, its SENSITIVITY, and its ADAPTIVE CAPACITY (IPCC 2007a, p21)The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  9. 9. Exposure to Risk Exposure - the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is subjected, such as: ๏Risks to unique and threatened systems (coral) ๏Extreme weather events (storm surges and sea swells) ๏Reduced agricultural productivity ๏Increased water insecurity ๏Increased health risk ๏Large-scale singularities ๏Aggregate impacts (impacts worsen over time)The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  10. 10. Six Climate Threats: Top Twelve Countries Most at Risk Exposure to Risk Drought Flood Storm Coastal 1m Coastal 5m Agriculture Malawi Bangladesh Philippines All Low lying All Low lying Sudan Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Netherlands Senegal Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Japan Zimbabwe India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Bangladesh Mali Mozambique Mozambique Moldova Indonesia Philippines Zambia Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Egypt Morocco Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Brazil Niger Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico Venezuela India Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Senegal Malawi Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Fiji Algeria Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Vietnam Ethiopia Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Denmark Pakistan Low income Middle income High income Source: World Bank 2008The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  11. 11. Sensitivity Sensitivity - Intersecting inequalities - produce different experiences of climate change impacts: ๏ Geographic context ๏ Dependence on the environment for livelihoods, food, fuel, shelter and medicine ๏ Asset and resource deficiency ๏ Governance / political economy issues ๏ Access to information, decision making and justiceThe Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  12. 12. SensitivityWho are vulnerable? ๏ Women ๏ Indigenous Peoples ๏ The urban poor ๏ Inhabitants of small island states ๏ Vulnerability is not a uniform taxonomyThe Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  13. 13. Sensitivity Climate change will exert an additional stress on an already sensitive system 90% of the world’s poor depend on forests for their income 30% of the population - more than 800 million people - is malnourished 70% of the people who live in extreme poverty are women and girlsThe Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  14. 14. Adaptive CapacityStrengthening adaptive capacity by building assets, capital and resources ๏ Human ๏ Social and cultural ๏ Natural ๏ Physical ๏ Financial ๏ Research and InnovationThe Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  15. 15. ResilienceResilience occurs where adaptivecapacity is strong, inequalities areaddressed, and exposure minimized.It reflects the ability to deal withchange and continue to develop.The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  16. 16. Complex social response: Loss of livelihoods ๏ Livelihood sources of the poor are usually narrow and climate-sensitive ๏ 2.6bn people are dependent on agriculture ๏ In periods of stress they draw down on a variety of assets and resources leaving them further exposed to the next risk.The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  17. 17. Complex social response: Health and fatalities๏ Vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue and yellow fever are sensitive to temperature and precipitation patterns. Today, approximately 40% of the world’s population is at risk from malaria; this is projected to rise to 80 % by 2080.๏ Ill-health reduces productivity and perpetuates poverty; financial resources are increasingly being stretched by climate-related disasters and outbreaks.The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  18. 18. Complex social response: Migration and displacement๏ By 2050, up to 200 million people may be permanently displaced due to climate change (IPCC)๏ Global temperature increases of 3–4°C could result in 330 million people being permanently or temporarily displaced as a result of flooding (UNDP)๏ Migration: result of failed adaptation or legitimate coping strategy?The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  19. 19. Increased incidence of violent conflict๏ Climate change acts as a “threat multiplier” that heightens the conditions for internal conflict, sows the seeds of instability in already volatile regions, and increases the likelihood of failed states.The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  20. 20. Damage to infrastructure and utilities๏ Slow and rapid climate impacts destroys assets and infrastructure๏ Public utilities can be severely undermined with impacts on long-term developmentThe Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  21. 21. Where are we now? Lead (1) - Shaping policy responses: From Kyoto to Cancun Climate building blocksThe Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  22. 22. Kyoto Missed opportunities and failed promises A new beginning in Bali Changing our perspective All roads lead to Copenhagen Cancun and beyondThe Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  23. 23. The Building Blocks ๏ Mitigation ๏ Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) ๏ Adaptation ๏ Technology ๏ FinanceThe Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  24. 24. Renewable Energy: Co-benefits๏ GHG Reductions๏ Economic returns for those who innovate๏ Employment and local development๏ Increased security of supply๏ Reduced emissions of other pollutants and health benefitsThe Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  25. 25. Adaptation ๏ Planned versus autonomous adaptation ๏ First Generation ๏ Second GenerationThe Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  26. 26. Technology๏ Research and innovation๏ Investment and political will๏ Development and deployment๏ Access and supporting structuresThe Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  27. 27. FinanceEstimates put the cost of climate change at between$4bn and $109bn per year (Stern 2006 / UNDP 2007) ๏How much is required? ๏New and additional? ๏How to generate funding? ๏How to disburse / target funding?The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  28. 28. Finance CDM and Carbon Offset Markets Auctioning of Emissions Rights Emissions Cap and Trade Tax on Financial Transactions (Tobin Tax) GHG Levy Aviation / Shipping tax General taxes and specific funds Carbon Taxes GDP Contribution (0.5% - 1%) Baseline ODA (up to 0.7% of GNP) Source: How will the world finance climate change action? World Bank presentation to the Bali Brunch, April 2009The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  29. 29. Governance improved policies, processes and outcomes “The great tragedy of sustainable development is that we have not invented a politics to go with the concept”. James MacNeill, former Secretary General of the Brundtland CommissionThe Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  30. 30. Scales and Principles Vulnerable communities are least responsible for the cause and least able to deal with theGlobal: consequences of climate change.UNFCC, Kyoto, Bali RoadmapRegional:EU and other initiativesNational:Policies at the state levelLocal / Sub-national:Initiatives at provincial, community and household levelThe Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  31. 31. The Social Dimensions of Climate Change Concluding thoughts Climate change impacts are already altering the context for development. Are we ready for those changes?The Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  32. 32. Possible Effects of Climate Change Policy: CO-BENEFITS NEGATIVE SOCIAL IMPACTS EQUITY INEQUITY RESILIENCE VULNERABILITYThe Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  33. 33. What can you do? Lead (2) - The Four Cs: Citizen Consumer Communicator Change AgentThe Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010
  34. 34. Thank you! carina.bachofen@gmail.comThe Social Dimensions of Climate Change: The Washington Center Reconciling climate change and development Washington, DC | 6 December 2010

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