Monthly data as of December 2014
Source: NAREIT® analysis of data from FTSE NAREIT All Equity REIT Index.
Comparison of Eq...
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REIT Bull and Bear Market Cycles

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This slide summarizes the duration and performance of bull- and bear-market cycles for listed U.S. equity REITs since the early 1970s. The real estate market cycle seems to last about 18 years on average--an observation made in 1930, if not earlier. The last three bear markets have each lasted about 1-2 years; the last two bull markets have been 14 2/3 years (12/74-8/89) and 16 1/4 years (10/90-1/07), with listed U.S. equity REIT returns averaging close to 20% per year. The current REIT bull market started 4 3/4 years ago. Note that not every month during a real estate bull market is positive: in fact, about one-third of months have been negative during previous bull markets. In fact, during the long bull market of 10/90-1/07, listed U.S. equity REITs suffered a severe mid-cycle downturn in 12/97 – 11/99 as investors pulled out so they could participate in the dot-com bubble.

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REIT Bull and Bear Market Cycles

  1. 1. Monthly data as of December 2014 Source: NAREIT® analysis of data from FTSE NAREIT All Equity REIT Index. Comparison of Equity REIT Bull and Bear Cycles Starting / Ending Dates Duration Overall Total Return Annualized Total Return Positive / Negative Months September 1972 – December 1974 27 months -37.0% -18.5% 63% negative December 1974 – August 1989 176 months +1,339.5% +19.9% 69% positive August 1989 – October 1990 14 months -23.9% -20.9% 86% negative October 1990 – January 2007 195 months +1,239.5% +17.3% 64% positive Sub-periods 10/90 – 12/97 86 months +284.3% +20.7% 64% positive 12/97 – 11/99 23 months -23.7% -13.2% 75% negative 11/99 – 1/07 86 months +357.0% +23.6% 74% positive January 2007 – February 2009 25 months -68.3% -42.4% 60% negative February 2009 - present 70 months so far +326.9% so far +28.3% so far 69% positive so far Bull market phase Bear market phase 0

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