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L'economia di Internet

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L'intervento di Gianroberto Casaleggio al Forum Ambrosetti 2014

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L'economia di Internet

  1. 1. INTERNET ECONOMY Trends, new paradigms, and business models
  2. 2. 97/1/77’ 2771. E'*s/ ‘É/ '&7‘s/ 'Ì7ÌÎ ‘là λ î". '?t'îÎÎ/ ’”V 1V- , F‘- nana‘ _v . "-4" - r- _v _. .,_ - _‘ ‘l _v . ‘ - . ".5: _. ,« 1/a’ Jx r; j t, ‘ t] J (r f” ‘N 17h’ I] 4* ÎÎN; l’ _r_/ / / 5. Ì , # Î Î h. F‘ E 1:9 , ' aarîuauez-n; r-uaaw-nuasanuauuuua:
  3. 3. LARRETRATEZZA DIGITÀLE ITALIANA Quei sorpassi subiti in Rete Corriere della Sera, 2 settembre 2014 - Gian Antonio Stella Da ieri, sentenzia il sito netindex. com che misura la velocità di download domestica sulla base di cinque milioni di test al giorno, siamo 98° posto al mondo. Dopo la Grecia e davanti al Kenya. Nel dicembre 2010 eravamo al 70° posto. Nel dicembre 2012 a| |'84° posto. Coi nostri mediocri 8,51 MB mediamente scaricabili al secondo siamo ultimi tra i Paesi del G8 (penultimo è il Canada che svetta da 23: il triplo). Il turismo europeo dipende per un quarto dal Web ma si impenna fino al 39% nel Regno Unito. In Italia vale il 17%. Il Web ha creato 700 mila posti di lavoro in Italia: sei volte più degli addetti di un settore storico quale la chimica. Eppure, davanti a un quadro così, lo stesso governo del primo premier incessantemente affaccendato tra Facebook e Twitter, WhatsApp ed Instagram pare aver deciso, stando alle bozze dello Sblocca Italia, di limitare gli aiuti per l'estensione della banda larga.
  4. 4. Fondi Ue, la Commissione critica il piano del1’Ita1ia per Futilizzo di 41 miliardi Repubblica rende noti I contenuti della lettera inviata da Bruxelles in risposta all'Accordo di panenanato il documento che spiega come l'Italia intende impiegare | fondi comunitari per il periodo 20142020 Ribaditi l rilievi sulla "scarsa capacità amministrativa“ Ma Bruxelles denuncia anche la ” r l ‘ ‘ su Agenda digitale e patrimonio culturale la scarsita di risorse stanziate per il contrasto dell 1, v i ‘ ‘ e il ' dei fondi per l'innovazione di Redazione Il Fatto Quotidiano | 13 agosto 2014 Commenti (399)
  5. 5. w un K nomm saum 3:5: Source. World Economia Forum a, m. s e a u H1 . mi“ emu. ma 2 E. 3.. ... ." 3. 3. . ... . . .. GPLum m7. W em ma: .. . E: .. . . .. .2 t. ” e Îmmzu . . . . i M . Mm. w.m. m. . m. .3. —_— un . n.". u.n. .w. m.u. u.m. .s. m.s. m.m. w.m. s.m. m.m. _.m un. n.5 n.0 non _ _ r: _ì_= :__= 5.: n . a.. ... ... ... .. umfluuuflhflafiw. 2.. .a. ..a. ... .a. w . . . .. ______ _—__ . __ mm colui Iouul In: n»: n.5. n: 11.: ... m m m m m Î 5 m W _ nlnnnnmnnnmu In: I IuIuDnIn rlnlxlìu u. . .2. x. aiuta. t: Plasma: . I ilalzlvlulnluiniwlul In: Inln _ un anni rum-Km", . _ a É _”_a. __n. _____= __. = a 5:5 F. ._. __. ___= .._. __. .__, _=___ _: _ "un-n-u-cu-au-qn-n-qm-ntwu-u
  6. 6. Panama 40 4.50 40 40 Rank among Rank Score 2012-2013 GCI country/ Economy (out of 148) (1 -7) economies‘ 2012-2013 Barbados 47 4.42 47 44 Lithuania 48 4.41 48 45 ,19 .1 11 49 .1? Kazakhsîan 50 4.41 50 51 Portugal 51 4.40 51 49 LaNÌ a 52 4.40 52 55 South Africa 53 4.37 53 52 Costa Pia 54 4.35 54 57 Mexico 55 4.34 55 53 Eraziw 56 4.33 56 48 Bulgaria W 4.31 57 62 Qmms 58 4.30 58 58 Prilpxfnes 59 4.29 59 65 ‘nc a 6'. ) 4.28 60 59 Peru 61 4.25 61 61
  7. 7. Broadband penetration by country ceco ma una) bmldbnnd Iuhlcrlyflom w 1m inhnblunu, by Intnnology, omo-un: 2011 IOms Fmuuw uClbll IDSL OECD avera e: 26% Source: OECD, 2013
  8. 8. "Every 10% increase in wideband connectivity boosts GDP by 1.27% per capita" Source: IMF Research Rep0rt(2011)
  9. 9. ANNUAL GROWTH IN THE LAST 10 YEARS NASDAQ 4 +8,72% e +5,75% G +4,91% Nasdaq new players: Bafcìsi El: Ra kuten Yandex m? ” libre Main Chinese Japanese Main Russian South search engine e-commerce search engine American company _ 2:22:22: Chinese instant messaging service
  10. 10. «a - “xx
  11. 11. g 4,4. wwì. 'r. w.'r.4r. 'r. -r. -ì LSÈIHD AUNOWWOD 0 .1-a-z. -z. -z. -.. -;. -r. -r. -z, -z. -1.0 CHANCE O[. -{. -{, -i. -I. °i. -4.-1'.
  12. 12. 5, 27 . . 5 I 1 x "n. >' COLLECT 5200 SALARY AS you PASS <89)’ <9
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  14. 14. f CO, 1 DISINTERMEDIAMON "V q“ Ì‘ u se. r? a ‘ " ‘#77 î-x, il ‘ “ ,55’: i , :;, _-{: 5" r’ À u. ‘ m- “9Ìî’; a' 52m . w . “’“<': ',; :»«. ., “' A î { a
  15. 15. E 1.!351M[TEiF-ÀÈAIEÈI Ì. L,A‘: ÎJÎI‘Î W Eîrliw1'irraiirr«inru ‘Ìiî ìriìaarrrrarîftanfkaa; nxtîilîw rum amîîktîkad ‘vfiîIÌ| _.l@ 1m alflîz" gnrtînîts-r-flefi îpnmtîîitjcrîrwla sin“ «tifi tlihrar‘ rrallldlre-r. ‘
  16. 16. Chance You can cut your costs and your market has grown
  17. 17. «v . . 51mm‘ I ' I '. .. ‘ F, I'A". '.“' I ’— v‘ ‘si —1-v‘“ 1 ‘v r. n-| ‘ “ _ v 7V “ >1“ , | ‘ ‘x 7 I r ’ a ‘ x n! J Ì I v‘ . “ ‘ . ' ‘l Iv‘ ‘ ‘
  18. 18. US Postal service L; Z 200 billions Ietters in 2000. 160 billions Ietters in 2013 FÉÉFÎFSÎÉWE S 16 billions loss Pleces of Mall Dellvered (MM) and Net Proflt/ (Loss) (SMM) o! U. S. Postal Servlce, 1886 - 2012 250,000 r V — V — r r — r — V V — V — — — — V — V — — — — — r V r — — — r r r r — — — r — — — — V — V — — — — r — r — — — — — r — — V w 55,000 —Plcccs o! Nhìl (MM) —Nul Pro1ìl. "(Loss)(SMM) 200,000 150,000 100,000 610,000) Pleces 01 Mail Delivered (MM) Nel Proliî / (Loss) (SMM) 50,000 (S1 5,000) 0 ì 620,000) 1886 1900 1914 1928 1942 1956 1970 1984 1998 2012 o Source: U5 Postmaster General, KPCB Canada Posi: No more paper Ietters within 5 years 8,000 people might be fired
  19. 19. / Traditional mail ® —4% every year on a global level Panel: I emress volume Source: IPC Global Post lndustry Report
  20. 20. FREE ECONOMY
  21. 21. }*FEHA/ ÎJH {»rrfiWî (ÌiE roîjìì ‘%‘ ÌÌMÎ’ J Ì MÌÎPL‘ Le e -‘ (o ‘ Il! ‘ r- _w , . o Mal F1,! l’ ; howI1aìtîHJug1
  22. 22. FREE ECONOMY "Free" models online: Companies: 1. Direct cross subsidy g 2. Advertising supported 3. Freemium u L, Alexa 4. Gift Economy v WIKIPEDIA 1h: Bue Enxyùwyzdla
  23. 23. Long Tail - Why the Future offlusiness Is Selling Lcss uf More (ÌHRIS ANDIÈIÌSON ”Making products or services available for free should always be evaluated in an online business modeI” Chris Anderson
  24. 24. According to Chris Anderson two economies exist: the "atoms economy" where the price of goods tends to increase in time (inflation) and the "bits economy" where the price tends to decrease (deflation). 9! «op D" îfiorn : ?îHìHîT VS FrîEo: m:mtr 5,1’ Ì‘ 1 L1 ; ‘
  25. 25. d‘ { x ‘ _ , —' ‘ 5.9. _. "-* x 1:’ . _ ’ , .‘-. —' “a” . , 1' - VE A GLOBALIZATION
  26. 26. ‘Fîîne 1| r‘lììerfrîr‘ra'îì ‘t? aîìarîenîgnÎîlr‘ n51 , r*ì‘, n<: rr: îì%= ! r'r'1 îfîtÌlfÌ H: ‘firmiiiiìtetìîarî: Îlsrîltaxrwînî nniîuerìflirt/ fitti” tla‘Îr. vwreaa- r1 ÎisrsnroisiÎhrr/ firîîsitrrentîlL enrînìîJ Îisrrîtrî IEÎÎÌÎÌÎFÉIÎÎICM 11"21‘. «aurînîîl ILÎFÎZZKΑ? €1.11 ÎloìîrljîhIrîlrìîîàtriîlîì Îlrîìîrtîrîànrîfîì UH Îitî| *Î03'1%‘Γrr’[, e-uìtcrrsur: Im‘x«“ eunrîl (ÉEL1N_iÎ: |’, LN_ÎJ%‘J ‘u 111 ilîîîîraw‘ ìîlsìîìînaî in , îîIÎtî': ì:<: nr*v, /1 Îiîiîlîî 51h: 1t real ‘E r‘*r-"-'—“"»‘" ’Αr> (Jl_n_n'. :‘. ‘n n >___ tiri Ir "FIÎÌ" ILIrîI'rC: et; L10: In zanrnjî ‘Irriwînrrì‘1ner; îfrr: I, r‘ 1 «Ueusrrw 2:0» _{ÎI‘FÌ= EΑt, /Î. EÉ7ÌÎW,1’É= K. annuncia: C1503?
  27. 27. agì. ’
  28. 28. Globalization is the solitude of the number one. Preferential aggregation is one of the rules of the net described by the mathematician Barabasi. 7 fuèà . v «l — ‘- Albert-Lészlò É Burobésì ‘ 11 The New Science 0F Networks
  29. 29. Kodak vs lnstag ram people. After the bankruptcy, in February 2012, Kodak ceases production of photographic equipment. . Kodak employed up to 140 thousand Instagram in the same sector in 2012 Q with 13 employees was bought for 1 billion dollars by Facebook.
  30. 30. ÉIÎC‘ÎìîìhÎlÎ-ÉÌÀÎÌÎWÌFÌÎI Îti» JÎIHÎFÎL F rwmax! îîxautÎh:111m ÎFM 2' ì JÎÌÎI I; n: 11* ÎÌÉLÌ’ r Ì: ÎÎÉLEÎÎÌ<Ì r%i‘": a ì m ” h: lì: sex! ÎL:1>‘5;L‘ÌIÎh<: Mix C wiîxl ì H 1 -4 , »îr: s*-ìf&+&! c‘r/ ‘La è: fî/ ?ì«; :?evîra"x —À ìfiÌÎFÌÉ’ ÀÌÎ1_/ ’—_"ÉΑY'(—4'/ :[L; îfjLJl/ IÎLW; I
  31. 31. 2008-2012 Intemet User Rank Coun Adds MMs 1 China 2 India 3 Indonesia 4 Iran 5 Russia 6 Nigeria 7 Philippines 8 Brazil 9 Mexico ìî 11 Argentina 12 Egypt 13 Colombia 14 Turkey 15 Vietnam Top 15 World 1 s: 0 a: i: ai finte ‘vien’: LESGVS 2012 Intemet 48 1,473 2,406 Population YIY Growth Penetration 1 0% 42% 26 1 1 58 23 205 55 6 49 1 5 30 32 35 6 45 9 37 3 78 57 68 1 1 38 39 54 1 7 47 7 35 1 5% 8% 34% 34% Source: Kpcb, internetworldstat B
  32. 32. -» Slf. 1% «ili àPÎIGìÎÌTLQI «îîiaiira! Vfllîlîì «îiraraliacl in 1h: ialeìì. Q1 ilaantîa e ÌW xcxgac» îliuara uvilll ÎÌ e FîO iiinvnxac: 1h: Chini avtanîianbia In 2111.0 e F'rCIcî| L.Icxiivfl‘r, jv/ ’ cui cxtîlnmlmnrfìa "lirali: vnflll tra altri: ‘lo annanitzte Chini uvtlll Îcxe r? » 710 ‘Îlìîllîlîì guraaìkar (ÎÈVAIÎÎ)
  33. 33. MOBILE
  34. 34. MOBILE The pace at which mobile Internet spread globally is unmatched in the history of technology Technology Cycles Have Tended to Last Ten Years Wearable/ Mainframe Mini Personal Desktop Internet Mobile Internet Everywhere Computing Computing Computing Computing Computing Computing 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2014+ , , _ : ‘ e" . ., '.-fi "e d ‘ cî _*'_ I ‘h? b E l iuhy" 5E o ‘r; ‘ AH" ' | — c. ,«e. .". '.». 'î« “ 111!! C‘ . - . ' _fl K‘. Î 17 o 2:—. '5“"
  35. 35. J:
  36. 36. Mobile traffic on the total of internet traffic has grown exponentially. From 0,9% in 2008, to 10% in 2012, to an estimate of 19% for 2013 and 28% in 2014. Global Mobile Traffic as % of Total lntemet Traffic, 12108 — 5/13 30% N un S’ % of Internet Tra IC -| N v- °. è 0% - v v 12/08 12/09 12I10 12/11 12/12 12l13E 12I14E
  37. 37. In USA on L‘ Thanksgiving 9 Day 2013, 16,5% of online sales went through mobile devices.
  38. 38. I mwr m i N. E ‘N3 t P" " ' ‘già, "e I l, .
  39. 39. _ _ _. _, _. _ _ y_i _ _ F‘ I l Eh”. ‘I li J il i i Eàczciiiiimarcra “la "the ijliiiflrigi îlTlCl aallliigi iii glncltîlg; arinîìl HG-ITMÎICIGÉ- (in ‘lira internati. ‘in: trainante «iii wcxrînmanartxe ÌHCIILICÌ e 121:: airrìitiriciiiiie- Cîltîlizìla axvlallialhllîtyz, (iii; armati ili îlC: g:; i.7i; ;_, {ai viviltîîlsli‘ aalacìîicln Cii gioîlcîlc; ìlilCl aarlficiset, îlClfiîîi-Îî-ÎÎÎÎIÎÎÎÈYZ, îITICÌÌ Irikarmlîiclmnl Fàîlîiit. annoia ‘Vfllmpiai-jltan
  40. 40. - x , C E ÎÎ-Q I l‘) m. Wsfih » v w J v‘ À, ‘a s‘, l‘ i ri, ‘ . | g. ‘ z f} V3‘ xii“ IVUÎVÎMV "‘ ' E ‘ V <‘ u‘ 1 , . , - u’ — 1). ‘ ‘l Oli r ‘. ‘ ‘ E l t, ‘v- ’ 1. , r i, _’ Il 1h“: "”‘ ’ , , . . . " mar" i ‘ i" 1" ‘-
  41. 41. ideati: lîîilficîinwaie. in ili‘. «iîln lime ‘Ilîli rmctiicnii; Îîrîallfiilìîfil f. ALT hlllliîiiig, L 111'241 tutti «ili uunirziu iilflt nite il? niiclljlcîl in? ‘ ‘tour’ linee; iîlfjlile-li" Îìlîr’ JIÌIITL.
  42. 42. ‘. Lezeieilt sullo Àîkîîîllîîlîzlîl rene. lîleen i; mînîìli. r:li1g| "rrili ‘v/ eranre; resieraihîil Cm €—llÌîfÌliilii”I€-ll"îî5‘ ‘in tir. tirati: ‘i; iÎlTrT-EIHÌÎIÌÉ-IIÎÌÌ alti iîiwe‘ WHÉIÎI ‘Îîi'lîlil"lilî—li‘ Cri lZ-rtiriliriertze In ‘lire lillîlillîi‘; riti , A‘s: ii1l. '013‘? 1.0 I 30%} m“ % % l? MKîEILE 47% FLASH SALES ' «IONI BUONI S IENTI ‘ a 5555””: a - VOUCHER _ Q 49% SPEDIZ GRATIS 44% l CON SOGLIA LAYOUT ' GRAFICO 22% , — l SPEDII ‘ GRATIS l ‘ II—_ . r a J‘ e‘.
  43. 43. 31m tzcl_ì_'r_l_'r_l_iel_ì’t: e Ìii Jîîrîiliìitì gliliiàleglît‘. 3* . . E +093 agi-v . ‘m’ ‘îuîìl jr_—jì, _ V 13*; A ‘ _, ,v22.3' "+43°*= l -. :=21.1î e n}: Îmae-ai ì g‘, ,14.3« _ ".3r? a| ‘— — " gigi Ì "mise-a . wss°= l 4:: ‘v - neon —< « ì, . . .___ . "tlÎlailLìjelllsifir 213-311 ‘r«fi_‘, _,iàjz, i;ii. sui‘-ii x91 a4 _‘_, <._‘9__ 4 _ ' zrîlîiî 11gb? !» 61012151 4219123 austero? ‘ 914212221 ‘flslglfi dalla} wîggut 11212: 119584 annata-te‘ "Îîîhîîallagufluulîsfikîolîhlîî 240W!
  44. 44. Major markets of Italian e-commerce companies 651 A 5 5"‘ 49x11, 47954“ ' 272:, 20% 31° H. i? 33m" 33 8% 8% ofi-IER ASIA 3% 4% LATÌN AFRICA AMERICA MARKED ADEOUATÉ PRESENCE PRESENCE Source: Casaleggio Associati 2014
  45. 45. ÎEìIÎtΑ% ‘ÌFI in il r xrj n} tuîj —», ; 1 H u_ 7:1 LEÎÌÎÎ ma ; iÎîi‘+‘xî1ÌÌJ 1 m avîtr nmîrjwîra-àrwîta‘ ìflfîîziîî s1. Q1211) m ; “(]>îlr”}î ìfl/ ÉKÈ‘? 1'<JTÉ“: (LÈ)(: JÀI
  46. 46. |7 ‘ l’ ‘L’ 3 >5’ T H E s c: H o o L OF THE FUTURE { L
  47. 47. ”Higher education will undergo a transformation between now and 2020. The 500-year-old university model will change more in the next ten years than it has in the Iast 100." David Houle, Futurist
  48. 48. Digital Revolution and Higher Education 1/2 The value of Online Learning. 51% of the college presidents surveyed say online courses provide the same value. The prevalence of Online Courses. 77% of college presidents report that their institutions now offer online courses. These courses are more prevalent in some sectors of higher education than in others. While 89% of four-year public colleges and universities offer online classes. Source: PEW — College Presidents Survey
  49. 49. Digital Revolution and Higher Education 2I2 Online Students. 23% of college graduates report that they have taken a class online. However, the share doubles to 46% among those who have graduated in the past ten years. Among all adults who have taken a class online, 39% say the format's educational value is equal to that of a course taken in a classroom. The Future of Online Learning. College presidents predict substantial growth in online Iearning: 15% say most of their current undergraduate students have taken a class online, and 50% predict that 10 years from now most of their students will take classes online. Digital Textbooks. 62% of college presidents anticipate that 10 years from now, more than half of the textbooks used by their undergraduate students will be entirely digital. Source: PEW - College Presidents Survey
  50. 50. Edx Online Courses EdX was founded by the MIT and Harvard University in May 2012. EdX hosts online university-level courses in a wide range of disciplines to a worldwide audience at no charge. EdX is nonprofit and runs on an open-source software platform. As of 22Ju| y 2014, EdX has more than 2.5 million users taking over 215 courses online. i Take great onllne courses from Mechanlcal Behavior of Materia. .. the world's best universities <1 t” . 1 è L. ‘ 4 A A Solar Energy Clrgnàîîsodîîy ofCurrent Isrrggîgctlon ‘(o Computer Delflx ET 303àTU UQX Worldlflîx HiNIrdXlCSSOX seuienlberl 1014 sepumoeri m4 aflytlrflasewuated
  51. 51. Éiitiîiîil attriti’; Iaiìîiìîicilil 1m? ‘ ‘ìîavtîlifrvcvlcrgficîa. _| ;1Ì-_. ’Îl, |_l: ; î fl : f ’ a 11,1: ’ f * a: l? — ' 4 . . al E aÎ ' g . - al Ì ‘ —- Z a «f: J -__v À I, Ali | —<‘ Z î. ‘ “ 4F T: V _l _ l a l _ — l a , aÎ l a l A L" 7* firfihl‘ k 7 ‘l, ’ l ‘_" n’ i U 1I7I 441i jljrfih’ 4 - 9515-: E '%vl‘ll'= %:l" i'll lilli-l; . Ml Îill JCICIU: Ìli; all‘lallal PC*l“il“ÎÌ%FlÌÌl‘lÎllflj Ul-lTWÎÉÎÎJÎÀTÎÎKYl/ ‘I
  52. 52. .. wnvkVgnld-Î «Lîlîfil-Afillilfllqflllfiìv nnmumnmnmmnu ip-va-udpndhflnottpoufl (Iii 4.. . «la! AI 9.55,. . ELN4îLLìÎA l 4574!“? mirmxgm-nnman-l
  53. 53. LESSONS OF THE GAME 1I2 - Development of tech start up financing — Creation of areas for tech development on the model of the US bay area - Re-birth of an Italian tech world player integrated with the public sector - Attraction of tech people from abroad and getting skilled emigrated people back
  54. 54. LESSONS OF THE GAME 2I2 - Incentives to innovative companies to come to Italy vs incentives to go away as for bureaucracy - Laws to favour the development of new technologies vs protection of lobbies and of the status quo - Fiscal policies to pro-technology (eg. an ebook cannot be taxed more [22%] than a paper book [4%]) - Introduction of the Digital School
  55. 55. V gglhhxa. r- d" ' ‘El «l rrîcl l Dl ‘Nel a ‘L AÀFl-jlxl N” "J " ' l l 5J l J J a» e ' a

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