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  1. 1. Fourth Generation Asymmetrical Warfare Extracted from “ The Real Intelligence Failure on 9/11 and the Case for a Doctrine of Striking First” - Richard H. Schultz and Andreas Vogt, 2002, in Russ Howard, ed., Terrorism and Counterterrorism (New York: McGraw Hill 2003).
  2. 2. A New Form of Warfare <ul><li>Following the bombing of the USS Cole (October 2000) a responsive military campaign was considered hopeless because it was thought </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A war against terrorism cannot be won – terrorism can only be reduced, attenuated or controlled </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Terrorism was not classifiable as warfare because it was not a serious enough danger </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Terrorism did not resemble modern war – so it was not, ipso facto, war </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. An Alternative Perspective <ul><li>War undergoes changes . . . </li></ul><ul><li>There have been </li></ul><ul><li>Four Generations of Warfare </li></ul><ul><li>Classical Nation-State War </li></ul><ul><li>War based on Massive Firepower </li></ul><ul><li>Maneuver Warfare </li></ul><ul><li>Low Intensity Conflicts by Non-State Actors </li></ul>
  4. 4. First Generation <ul><li>Classical Nation-State War, </li></ul><ul><li>Perfected by Napolean </li></ul>Second Generation Industrial Age War of Attritions based on Massive Firepower
  5. 5. Third Generation <ul><li>Maneuver Warfare - Introduced by the Germans in World War II and refined by the United States in the 1980s </li></ul>Fourth Generation Low Intensity Conflicts by Non-State Actors - Predicted in the 1990s, implemented and perfected by al Qaeda
  6. 6. More on Fourth Generation Asymmetrical Warfare (FGAW) <ul><li>Martin van Creveld, The Transformation of War, (New York: Free Press 1991) </li></ul><ul><li>Charles Dunlap, How We Lost the High-Tech War of 2007: A Warning from the Future, The Weekly Standard (29 January 1996) </li></ul><ul><li>Ralph Peters, Fighting for the Future (Mechanicsburg, PA: Stackpole Books 1999) </li></ul><ul><li>Franklin “Chuck” Spinney – Defense and the National Interest; http://www.d-n-i.net/ Internet; accessed 10 June 2002 </li></ul>
  7. 7. Post Modern Transformation of War <ul><li>Fourth generation warfare will be highly irregular, unconventional, and decentralized </li></ul><ul><li>Asymmetrical operations will be employed to bypass superior military power </li></ul><ul><li>Both organization and operations of fourth generation warriors will be masked by deception, denial, stealth, and related techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Terrorist organization and operations will be profoundly affected by information technologies, networked through cell phones, fax machines, e-mail, web sites and the Internet </li></ul>Van Creveld, 1991
  8. 8. Post Modern Transformation of War (continued) <ul><li>Modern technologies will have a profound effect on the new battlefield </li></ul><ul><ul><li>no Fronts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>No distinction between military and civilian targets </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Laws will not constrain terrorists and their state sponsors as they seek new and innovative ways, including Weapons of Mass Destruction, to inflict terrible carnage </li></ul>Van Creveld, 1991
  9. 9. Post Modern Transformation of War (continued) <ul><li>Fourth Generation Warriors, frequently in the name of religious ideologies, will be remorseless enemies, with operations marked by unlimited violence, unencumbered by compassion </li></ul><ul><li>Countering terrorists and other non-state actors will be difficult for post-modern armies as they will have few, if any, targets that are vulnerable to modern conventional weapons systems </li></ul>Van Creveld, 1991
  10. 10. So What? <ul><li>The al Qaeda network bears an unmistakable resemblance to the FGAW template </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Globalized, multinational alliance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Small, dispersed units </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Elaborate connections with like-minded groups </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Broad, politico-religious appeal </li></ul></ul>
  11. 11. How do we respond to FGAW? <ul><li>Protect vital rights and interests unjustly threatened (just war doctrine) </li></ul><ul><li>Consider terrorist attacks an act of War </li></ul><ul><li>Implement preemptive action when necessary </li></ul>
  12. 12. Fourth Generation Asymmetrical Warfare Questions?