2015 Orange County Development Briefing
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2015 Orange County Development Briefing
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The Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber of Commerce hosted the Orange County Development Briefing, 8-10 a.m., Tuesday, Oct. 20 at the Sheraton Chapel Hill. Commercial and residential real estate professionals, planners and economic developers presented the latest trends about the local markets, new economic development initiatives, and the status of approved projects in Orange County and their municipalities at the event. The following individuals spoke at the briefing: * Mark Zimmerman of RE/MAX Winning Edge, speaking on behalf of the Greater Chapel Hill Association of Realtors * Michael Clayton, Clayton Commercial Realty * Sara Stephens, Hillsborough/Orange County Chamber of Commerce * Holly Fraccaro, Home Builders Association of Durham, Orange, and Chatham Counties * Jeff Furman, Northwood Ravin * Bill Christian, William Christian & Associates * Gary Hill, Woodhill NC, LLC * Lee Perry, East West Partners The briefing is sponsored by the Town of Chapel Hill Economic Development, Rho, Rene Hendrickson, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices–YSU, and Regions Bank.
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2015 Orange County Development Briefing
- 1. Welcome to the Orange County Development Briefing Tuesday, Oct. 20 Sheraton Chapel Hill Hotel
- 5. Thank you to our 2015 Major Investors! Community Champions
- 6. Thank you to our 2015 Major Investors! Community Investors
- 7. Thank you to our 2015 Major Investors! Platinum Sponsors
- 8. Thank you to our 2015 Major Investors! Gold Sponsors
- 9. Welcome to Our Newest Major Investors
- 11. Dwight Bassett
- 12. Randy Cox, Coldwell HPW Bringing welcome on behalf of the Greater Chapel Hill Association of REALTORS
- 14. Orange County Development Briefing The Residential Real Estate Market October 20, 2015 Mark Zimmerman All data provided by Triangle Multiple Listing Service 10K Research and Marketing
- 15. 2012 was a Good Year 2013 was a Better Year 2014 we hit a speed bump
- 17. Closed Sales vs YA - Last Year
- 18. Closed Sales vs YA - This Year
- 19. Days on Market vs YA – Last Year
- 20. Days on Market vs YA – This Year
- 21. Inventory vs YA Last Year
- 22. Inventory vs YA – This Year
- 23. Month’s Supply
- 24. Orange Month’s Supply by Price 9.5 5.2 3.8
- 26. Median Price Per Sq Foot
- 27. Summary Trends bouncing back in 2014 • Closed Sales and Pricing Increasing • Days on Market, Inventory & Month’s Supply Declining • But there’s an undercurrent – Orange continues to lag on new construction
- 28. New Construction Closed Sales
- 29. New vs Resale Closed Sales Latest 12 Months (Sept) New 9% Resale 91% Orange New 12% Resale 88% Durham New 33% Resale 67% Chatham New 20% Resale 80% Triangle
- 30. Orange Closed Sales – Resale vs New
- 31. What’s the Impact? • Competition heating up – Orange County • Aging inventory • High price of entry • Higher cost of living – Neighbors • Newer homes • Lower taxes and fees • Improving quality of life
- 32. 2015 Momentum is Back Competition Getting Better
- 33. Michael Clayton Clayton Commercial Realty
- 34. Orange County, NC Michael Clayton, Owner, BIC Commercial Real Estate
- 35. Orange County Market Trends Overview Snapshot of Each Commercial Real Estate Category – Office, Retail, & Industrial/Flex Space Availability of Square Footage by Category Pricing, Vacancy & Leasing Trends by Category
- 36. Orange County Office Overview Source: The KARNES Report
- 37. Orange Co. Office Pricing Trends 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
- 38. Orange Co. Office Vacancy Trends 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
- 39. Orange Co. Office Leasing Trends 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
- 40. Chapel Hill Submarket Retail Overview Q4 2014 Source: The KARNES Report
- 41. Orange Co. Retail Pricing Trends
- 42. Orange Co. Retail Vacancy Trends
- 43. Orange Co. Retail Leasing Trends
- 44. Orange County Industrial Overview Source: The KARNES Report
- 45. Orange Co. Industrial Vacancy Trends
- 46. Orange Co. Warehouse Leasing Trends
- 47. Orange Co. Flex Space Leasing Trends
- 48. Orange Co. Vacancy Rates Summarized Office ~ 5.24% Retail ~ 6.3% Warehouse ~ 0.6% Flex Space ~ 16.5%
- 49. Sara Stephens CEO, Hillsborough/Orange Chamber of Commerce
- 51. Residential Construction is on the RISE
- 52. WHY??
- 53. • We are Cool • Modern Facilities • Historic Charm • Artistic Accolades
- 54. Approved Residential Construction Actively Building
- 55. Projectname Approved units Type 515N 24 condos Bellevue 114 apartment Corbinton Commons 211 seniorsingle family &apartment Fiori Hill 46 pocketneigbhorhood (single family) Approved, notunderconstruction 395 UnderReview Requested units Type Collins Ridge 1150 apartment, townhome &single family Pipeline
- 57. ProjectName Description Review Status Eno Cotton Mill Historicfabricmill undergoingconversion from lightindustrial to mixed use approved Gatewood 36,000sf restaurant, event, and brewing complex MasterPlan approved Hampton Pointe shoppingcenter- has 3outparcel available - one underreview as Advance Auto Parts MasterPlan approved North Hills Center shoppingcenterundernew ownership undergoingfacelift approved Oakdale Village shoppingcenter- has approximately 47,000sf of retail space approved butnotbuilt MasterPlan approved Skimmerland 16,500sf lightindustrial underconstruction approved Tryon Flex Space approximately 60,000sf flex space approved but notunderconstruction approved Valley Forge Storage approximately 60,000sf flex self-storage space approved butnotunderconstruction approved Waterstone Mixed use development- has roughly 600,000sf of non-residential yetto build in MasterPlan MasterPlan approved Non-residential Activity
- 59. North Hills Center Under New Ownership
- 60. Waterstone Mixed use development – has roughly 600,000 sf of non-residential
- 62. OH! NC 86 & I-85
- 63. Notes from C Economic Developmen • A purchase option submitted for space leased by A Southern Season • Multiple hotel prospects are interested in exploring potential sites • Economic Development Office has submitted multiple Hillsborough sites to the State of NC inquiries seeking land for light mfg., distribution, office and flex. • Loans and grants to small businesses are active.
- 65. Holly Fraccaro CEO, Home Builders Association of Durham, Orange, & Chatham Counties
- 67. Regional Challenge: Rapid Growth • Anticipated Growth in the Triangle –Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill MSA* expected to grow 61% by 2020 & expands by 50,000 new residents annually. –Hillsborough is expected to grow by 10%this year alone! MSA= Metropolitan StatisticalArea
- 70. Industry Challenge: Lack of Training Options • Carpentry only, offered through Continuing Ed Program • Is NOT anApprenticeship Program • Does not provide Certification • Excellent Sustainable Technologies Program • No courses or programs for (basic) Carpentry, HVAC, Electric, Plumbing or Masonry.
- 71. Industry Challenge: Impact on Production Source: NAHB
- 72. Industry Challenge: Marketing & Recruiting
- 73. TRIANGLE BUILDING INSTITUTE* • Apprenticeship Training Programs in: – HVAC – Electric – Plumbing – Carpentry – Masonry • Other Training Opportunities: – Advanced Building Science, Residential Construction Supervisor, English as Second Language, GED, CertifiedAging in Place Specialist , Certified Green Professional, OSHA • Accredited Curriculum: Home Builder Institute, NCCCR • Student Recruiting: SkillsUSA, El Centro Hispano,Workforce Investment Boards • Tuition: $3,500/year • CLASSES BEGIN FALL2016!
- 74. BUILDING OUR FUTURE For More Information: Holly Fraccaro, CEO 919-265-9350
- 76. Jeff Furman Carolina Square and Carraway Village
- 80. Carraway Village Formerly The Edge
- 81. Carraway Village (formerly The Edge)
- 82. Carraway Village
- 84. Bill Christian, William Christian & Associates Charterwood
- 86. Gary Hill, Woodhill NC, LLC South Green
- 87. South Green Carrboro, NC Orange County Development Briefing October 20, 2015 Gary Hill, Woodhill NC, LLC
- 89. South Green – 501 S. Greensboro St Approved June 2015 Revitalization Infill Project 44,000 SF Retail / Restaurant / Bank / Medical Public/Private Partnership with NCDOT for Stormwater Improvements Continuation of Carrboro Bike Path Gateway to Carrboro linking southern neighborhoods to downtown 1600 SF to 14,000 SF options exist for retailers Largest pervious paver system in Orange County / LED parking lot lights Roundabout: improved traffic flow
- 91. Area Map
- 100. Lee Perry
- 102. Weaver Crossing
- 103. Q&A Facilitated by Aaron Nelson
- 104. CHYP: Cocktails with the Candidates 5:30-7:30 p.m., TONIGHT at The Franklin Hotel • Chapel Hill Young Professionals, mingle with your peers and learn more about the candidates running for local offices.
- 105. Early Voting Begins Thursday NC State Board of Elections: www.ncsbe.gov
- 106. Business Hall of Fame Gala 6:30-9:30 p.m., Nov. 5 at The Carolina Inn Tickets and information: carolinachamber.org/halloffame
- 107. Celebrating the 2015 Hall of Fame Inductees Stephen Edwards Eva Barnett Jean Holcomb Ted Seagroves John Woodard Eddie Mann The Hogan Family
- 108. Bring your business cards and some friends to our monthly Business After Hours. Free for Chamber members, no registration required. Business After Hours 5:30-7:30 p.m., Nov. 19 at Chapel Hill Country Club
- 109. Thank you, briefing sponsors! Rene Hendrickson
Editor's Notes
- After years of buyers market, 6 months supply in C & O at end of 2nd Qtr 2013
- All areas trending down. Slowing rate of growth. Orange actually declined - below previous year.
- All areas trending up, in positive growth territory, including Orange. Triangle +10.0%, Orange +16.7%, Durham +8.1%, Chatham +5.7%
- Inventory up, takes longer to sell.
- Trending down, to significantly lower levels. Red number is YTD, Sept.
- Demand down, pressure on inventory. Triangle and Durham flat to down. Chatham and Orange growing. New Listings YTD Triangle – 0.8% Durham - 4.1% Chatham + 0.4% Orange + 3.3%
- Demand down, pressure on inventory. Triangle and Durham flat to down. Chatham and Orange growing. New Listings YTD Triangle – 0.8% Durham - 4.1% Chatham + 0.4% Orange + 3.3%
- Inventory lower, sales higher, means less supply. All declining. See our shift in 2014. Chatham used to have very large inventory. Now closing gap. Orange 5.6, Durham 2.9, Chatham 5.9, Triangle 3.7
- $460+ 9.5 months, $290-$459 5.2 months, $180-$289 3.8 months
- In general . . . After all, this is supposed to be about OC development
- Durham running through inventory as fast as it can be built. Lag time for new developments. Historically closer to Triangle average (last year 16%) Ask any realtor around you what their buyers think. Older, dated inventory, not shiny, bright and new. Too many of those older properties aren’t updated. Some things easy to fix – granite, but baths expensive, floor plans very difficult. Let’s face it, we don’t make it easy. RCD, NCD, impervious surface. Add to that some excellent schools outside our system, premium people need to pay to live here, increasing cost of living (tax increases), Risk of becoming a niche market.
- Those chicken littles who are out on the campaign trail decrying all the new residential in Chapel Hill, we have a long way to go before we have to worry. This is why we have had such slow growth in Orange County, ~1% per year on average. Dwarfed by the growth of our neighbors. Still very low density, too. If we do see increase in growth rate, it will most likely come from Mebane, Hillsborough and Efland.
- The long term threat. Orange – 2015 YTD ave 1985, med 1993 Chatham – 2015 YTD ave 2000, med 2007 Durham – 2015 YTD ave 1989, med 1997 Aging housing,functionally obsolete no updating, finally have new construction Quality of life – downtown durham and raleigh renaissance (civic pride), improved amenities, improved schools
- Just a theory, but very plausible.
- Video should be attached to this slide
- Nuts and bolts – Meg
- Nuts and bolts – Meg
- Nuts and bolts – Meg