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# Contribution Modelling using Conversion Path Coverage

Superweek 2014 Punchcard prize entry

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### Contribution Modelling using Conversion Path Coverage

1. 1. Contribution Modelling using Conversion Path Coverage Carmen Mardiros @carmenmardiros
2. 2. Generic CPC Assisted Conversions Right idea, but ﬂawed metric Conversion £40Display Branded CPC Direct Conversion £55Branded CPC Generic CPC Generic CPCGeneric CPC ...but 1 of 4 touches = 0.25 ...but 3 of 4 touches = 0.75 @carmenmardiros
3. 3. Generic CPC Assisted Conversions Right idea, but ﬂawed metric Conversion £40Display Branded CPC Direct Conversion £55Branded CPC Assisted Conversion = 1 Assisted Conversion = 1 Generic CPC Generic CPCGeneric CPC Not equally assisted by Generic CPC ...but 1 of 4 touches = 0.25 ...but 3 of 4 touches = 0.75 @carmenmardiros
4. 4. All good (and bad) ideas start with What If... Frequency matters more than position First/Last click are essentially Recency-based models. Why are they better than Frequency- based ones? High frequency is less likely to be random Probability for a channel to appear 3 times on the same conversion path signiﬁcantly smaller than appearing just once. Frequency means higher spend Marketing optimisation problem if channels appear frequently and don’t pull their weight. @carmenmardiros
5. 5. How to calculate path coverage Conversion £40Display Branded CPCGeneric CPC Direct Conversion £55Branded CPC Generic CPCGeneric CPC Generic CPC{ Universe of conversion paths with Generic CPC =2 Universe of touches =8 Generic CPC global path coverage 4/8 = 0.5Generic CPC touches =4 @carmenmardiros
6. 6. 60% global path coverage Total touches on paths with Generic CPC Out of theses, Generic CPC touches @carmenmardiros
7. 7. Conversion £40Display Branded CPCGeneric CPC Direct Conversion £55Branded CPC Generic CPCGeneric CPC Generic CPC{ Use it to calculate revenue contribution? 0.25 * £40 = £10 0.75 * £55 = £41 Just another attribution model... @carmenmardiros
8. 8. Clear dominant channel. Primary heavy-lifter for customer segment 4? Total paths with Generic CPC for customer segment 4 Total touches on these paths path coverage @carmenmardiros
9. 9. Conversion £40Display Branded CPCGeneric CPC Direct Conversion £55Branded CPC Generic CPCGeneric CPC Generic CPC{ Universe of conversion paths with Generic CPC =2 Universe of touches becomes =5 New Generic CPC global path coverage 4/8 = 0.5 Generic CPC touches =4 Filter “tipping point” touches @carmenmardiros
10. 10. Total non-direct, non-branded touches on these paths path coverage (after direct / branded search excluded) path coverage (all channels included) Total paths with Generic CPC @carmenmardiros
11. 11. Convert path data so that you can ask speciﬁc questions SQL and PowerPivot @carmenmardiros
12. 12. gdninterest / banner click->google / cpc click->google / cpc click->google / cpc click->mybrand / email click->mybrand / email click->poczta.wp.pl / referral click->mybrand / email click- >forum.mybrand.com / referral click->mybrand / email click- >google / organic click->forum.mybrand.com / referral click- >mybrand / email click->google / cpc click Get data from MCF API @carmenmardiros
13. 13. Run it through SQL Assign unique number Split into touches & custom channel groupings Calculate path length Calculate position on path Aggregate using DAX and PowerPivot to work out contribution @carmenmardiros
15. 15. ConversionDisplay Branded CPCOrganic Search Direct ConversionBranded CPC DisplayOrganic Search Generic CPC Two types of conversion paths Direct Display End of path is branded search or direct End of path is upper-funnel channels @carmenmardiros
16. 16. Once here, is visitor nearly sold? Is this what moved people to brand-preference stage? Common patterns? Differences between customer segments? ConversionDisplay Branded CPCOrganic Search Direct Direct End of path is branded search or direct Last non-direct, non-branded touches @carmenmardiros
17. 17. All paths All paths where last non-direct, non-branded touch was Email Last non-direct, non-branded touches ... then correlate with path coverage @carmenmardiros
18. 18. End of path nurturers Closed the sale Observed role: Moved people to conversion stage (nurtured end of conversion path) Common patterns “second last + last“ ? Differences between customer segments? ConversionBranded CPC DisplayOrganic Search Generic CPCDisplay @carmenmardiros
19. 19. All paths where last 2 touches were Email. Which campaigns support each other? Which campaigns don’t fulﬁll their function? Patterns in “Second Last + Last” touches? @carmenmardiros
20. 20. Thank You Carmen Mardiros @carmenmardiros
21. 21. 40% global path coverage Total touches on paths with Generic CPC Generic CPC touches only Missing touches (multi-device, cookies...) How many touches would we have to be missing for analysis outcome to be different? @carmenmardiros