Introduction climate change and emissions trading

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Introduction climate change and emissions trading

  1. 1. carbonmetrics.com Climate Change Henk Harmsen
  2. 2. carbonmetrics.com What we know • How global warming works • Early warning signs • What might happen
  3. 3. carbonmetrics.com Source: Carbon Dioxide Research Group, Scripps Institute of Oceanography
  4. 4. carbonmetrics.com How global warming works 240 W/m2 240 240 236 240 240 Equilibrium CO2 * 2 CO2 * 2 15 °C 15 °C 15 °C + 2.5 °C Source: Global Warming, Houghton, 2004
  5. 5. carbonmetrics.com The Carbon Cycle Atmosphere 760 + 3.3 uptake uptake 0.7 2.3 fossil fuels & carbonates 6.3 Land 2500 Oceans 39000 All nrs. in Gt Source: Global Warming, Houghton, 2004
  6. 6. carbonmetrics.com Signs of climate change Average temperature increased + 0.6 °C over 20th century More heavy rain events Higher frequency and intensity of droughts Global mean sea level + 1-2 mm/year Snow cover decrease 10% Arctic ice thinned by 40% Source: Global Warming, Houghton, 2004
  7. 7. carbonmetrics.com Trouble brewing • The Keeling curve • Breathing of the planet • pre industrial 280 ppm Source: Grid Arendal/UNEP, Vital Climate Change Graphics
  8. 8. carbonmetrics.com What is being done • Climate change policies • Emissions trading • Policy regions
  9. 9. carbonmetrics.com Quotes quot;If you think mitigated climate change is expensive, try unmitigated climate change.“ Dr. Richard Gammon, University of Washington, on the steps of the US Congress, June 28, 1999 quot;First, we would not accept a treaty that would not have been ratified, nor a treaty that I thought made sense for the country.“ GW Bush on the Kyoto accord in an interview with the Washington Post, April 24, 2001
  10. 10. carbonmetrics.com “Recent” problem Kyoto Protocol Earth Summit Kyoto Kyoto Protocol & UNFCCC Protocol enters into force 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 “planet “discernable “scientific “Warming of the seems to be human evidence” climate system warming” influence” is unequivocal” Bronnen: IPCC 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th Assessment Reports
  11. 11. carbonmetrics.com Legal frameworks United Framework Convention on Climate Change Stabilize GHG emission at 1990 levels by 2000 Kyoto Protocol Reduce GHG emissions with average 5% during the period 2008-2012 [compared to 1990 levels] European Union Mandatory CO2 emissions trading for +/- 11000 installations
  12. 12. carbonmetrics.com How emissions trading works (cap & trade) Buy allowances Emissions Allowances Monitor & Verify Allocate
  13. 13. carbonmetrics.com European Emissions Trading [EU ETS] Emission permit Verification Allocation Emissions +/- 2191 Mt CO2 +/- 2100 Mt CO2 +/- 11000 installations covered. CO2 price: 15 – 20 eur/ton
  14. 14. carbonmetrics.com How emissions trading works (baseline & credit) Issue credits Baseline Project Validate emissions Monitor & verify
  15. 15. carbonmetrics.com Climate policy regions Big Regional European Big Kyoto Kyoto Kyoto initiatives emissions surplus gap gap trading CDM Regional projects initiatives
  16. 16. carbonmetrics.com Consequences for business? 70% of business see both risks and opportunities related to climate change [source: www.cdproject.net]
  17. 17. carbonmetrics.com FT500 Climate change actions 90% 79% 80% 74% 70% 60% 47% 50% 41% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Allocated Disclosure of Emission Emission targets management emissions data reductions responsibility Source: www.cdproject.net
  18. 18. carbonmetrics.com Tips for doing nothing • We don’t know enough • The goal is not clear • Developing countries have no reduction target Source: G.W. Bush, White House
  19. 19. carbonmetrics.com Better to act now • Scientific evidence • Precautionary principle • Link with energy policy
  20. 20. carbonmetrics.com Source: Grid Arendal/UNEP, Vital Climate Change Graphics
  21. 21. carbonmetrics.com Financial impact “…we will quantify the financial cost of greenhouse gas emissions and integrate them into financial analysis of the transaction.” JP Morgan, corporate policy Munich Re may “…adapt verified forecasts of climate change into the company’s business decisions.” Munich Re, response Carbon Disclosure Project
  22. 22. carbonmetrics.com We are in the same boat quot;This is by far the most serious challenge that we face or have ever faced. None of the other ones will matter if we don't get this right.“ Al Gore
  23. 23. carbonmetrics.com More information www.ipcc.ch Scientific research www.unfccc.int Kyoto Protocol, JI, CDM www.cdproject.net Carbon Disclosure Project www.wri.org Climate change data www.pewclimate.org Policy briefings www.ghgprotocol.org Measuring GHG emissions www.pointcarbon.com News www.carbonneutral.com Become carbon neutral http://ec.europa.eu/environment/ Emissions Trading in Europe climat/emission/mrg_en.htm http://magma.nationalgeographic. National Geographic com/ngm/0409/ special
  24. 24. carbonmetrics.com Henk Harmsen henk@carbonmetrics.com www.carbonmetrics.com http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/

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