State of the Clean Development Mechanism using publicly available statistics.

1. CDM 2008
Statistics using UNFCCC, IGES and UNEP/Risoe data

2. Present rate of issuance would lead to 1.3 Gt CERs issued by 31.12.12.
Horizontal distance between curves gives average time to issuance: 1100 days.
Situation 10.12.08, UNFCCC data.

3. As per 10 December 2008:
Registered: 1164
1258 projects registered, 1387 Mt emission reductions. Situation 10.12.08; UNFCCC data.

4. 229 Mt issued, 888 issuances. Situation 10.12.08, UNFCCC data.

5. 3000
2697
2500
2000
1500
1243
1000
500
136
101
84 70
23 8
0
At validation Rejected Registered Correction Withdrawn Request Request Under review
request review registration
4362 CDM projects, 1243 registered, 888 issuances.
Situation per December 2008, UNEP/Risoe and IGES data.

6. Registration & Issuance Team [RIT]
carries out completeness check and
Project developer Validator checks PDD and may call for a review.
writes PDD and additionality, puts PDD on 179 projects in review process
submits to validator. website. Eventually a request for [request review, review, request
Duration: about 6 registration is submitted. 2767 corrections]
months. projects in this phase.
Once project is Verifier checks
registered, the project monitoring report and
developer carries out uploads it to UNFCCC
monitoring plan, makes website.
monitoring report and 888 issuances.
submits to verifier.
Executive Board [EB] approves
1243 projects
registration of project &
registered.
issuance of CERs. Time
between publication of PDD
and first issuance: 1100 days.

7. Issuance success 1: emission reduction in the PDD matched with the
emission reductions during the first verification.
About 2/3 of projects perform lower than expected.
Situation per December 2008, UNEP/Risoe data.

8. 1,200
public comments to registration
registration to issuance
1,000
public comments to issuance
800
days
600
400
200
0
Oct-Dec 2004
Jan-Mar 2005
Apr-Jun 2005
Oct-Dec 2005
Jan-Mar 2006
Oct-Dec 2006
Jan-Mar 2007
Apr-Jun 2007
Oct-Dec 2007
Jan-Mar 2008
Apr-Jun 2008
Oct-Dec 2008
Jul-Sep 2005
Apr-Jun 2006
Jul-Sep 2006
Jul-Sep 2007
Jul-Sep 2008
1100 days from publication on website to issuance.
Situation 10.12.08, IGES data. Note that this period includes monitoring.

9. 600
reviews requested - registration
reviews undertaken - registration
500
reviews requested - issuance
reviews undertaken - issuance
400
300
200
100
0
Oct-Dec 2004
Jan-Mar 2005
Apr-Jun 2005
Oct-Dec 2005
Jan-Mar 2006
Oct-Dec 2006
Oct-Dec 2007
Oct-Dec 2008
Jul-Sep 2005
Apr-Jun 2006
Jan-Mar 2007
Jul-Sep 2006
Apr-Jun 2007
Jan-Mar 2008
Jul-Sep 2007
Apr-Jun 2008
Jul-Sep 2008
Registration process: review rate 26%. Issuance process: review rate 24%.
Combined: 43% chance that project is registered & issued without review.
Situation 10.12.08, IGES data.

10. Henk Harmsen
henk@carbonmetrics.com
www.carbonmetrics.com