Monthly snapshot -nifty 50 - jan12 Special Report By www.capitalheight.com

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Monthly snapshot -nifty 50 - jan12 Special Report By www.capitalheight.com

  1. 1. January Snapshot – Nifty 50 www.capitalheight.com
  2. 2. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)4295950CONTENTS Latest Updates Technical Analysis (M.A., PIVOTS, FIBO) S&P CNX Nifty Bank Nifty Future BSE Sensex www.capitalheight.com
  3. 3. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)4295950Latest Updates07nd Dec – Chairman of McNally said that they recently bagged a landmark Rs 120 crore order which will mark the company’s entry into the road sector. The Company also bagged a smaller order worth Rs 20 crore for extension of a material handling plant which was set up earlier.08th Dec - The food inflation sharply eased to 6.60% in the year to Nov 26, government data on Thursday showed, from an annual 8.00% in the previous week. The annual fuel inflation remained unchanged at 15.53% in the latest week, data showed. The primary articles price index was up 6.92%, compared with an annual rise of 7.74% in the prior week.09th Dec - Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said that surging food and fuel prices amid weak global economic growth are adversely impacting GDP growth of the country. Business sentiments are down. Food inflation and high fuel costs in times of weak global growth are taking a heavy toll on the economies of many emerging countries, including India.12th Dec – Index of Industrial Production (IIP) recorded a de-growth of 5.1% in October 2011, relative to the 11.3% growth in October 2010, extending the slowdown in industrial growth witnessed in the recent months (9.5% in June 2011, 3.7% in July 2011, 3.6% in August 2011 and 2.0% in September 2011). www.capitalheight.com
  4. 4. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)429595013th Dec – Parliaments Standing Committee on finance has opposed the governments proposal to hike the FDI limit for insurance companies to 49%. The house panels report, which was tabled in parliament today, says that the panel cannot support FDI hike in insurance.17th Dec – Against the food subsidy budget of Rs 60,572 crore for the current fiscal, the government has already released Rs 45,125 crore towards it by December 15. The food subsidy bill was Rs 62,929,56 crore in 2010-11 and Rs 58,242.45 crore in the previous fiscal, Food and Public Distribution Minister K V Thomas said in during the Question Hour.21st Dec - Ratings agency Moodys on Wednesday unified Indias local and foreign currency bond ratings at Baa3 and said the outlook on the ratings was stable22nd Dec – Tractor Indias July-September quarter (Q2) gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.9%, slowest growth in nine quarters. The economic deceleration is expected to continue in October-December quarter (Q3), says Montek Singh Ahluwalia.23rd Dec – Indias inflation is expected to ease to between 6 and 7% by March, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said on Friday, a day after data showed a sharp easing in food inflation. www.capitalheight.com
  5. 5. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)429595024th Dec – The countrys foreign exchange reserves fell by a whopping USD 4.67 billion to USD 302.1 billion in the week ending December 16 on the back of a dip in foreign currency assets, the Reserve Bank said here today.26th Dec – Indias infrastructure sector output grew 6.8% in November from a year earlier, sharply higher than the annual growth of 3.7% in November last year, government data showed on Monday. During April-November, the first eight months of the current 2011/12 financial year, the output rose 4.6%, compared with an annual rise of 5.6% a year ago, data showed. The infrastructure sector accounts for 37.9% of Indias industrial output.27th Dec – The union governments decision to sell Rs15000 crore of bonds on December 30 in an unscheduled auction will not increase its overall market borrowing for the second half of this fiscal year, a senior government official with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Monday.28th Dec – The food inflation eased to 0.42%, its lowest in nearly six years at least, and fuel inflation slowed to 14.37% in the year to December 17, government data on Thursday showed. In the previous week, annual food and fuel inflation stood at 1.81% and 15.24%, respectively. The primary articles price index was up 2.70%, compared with an annual rise of 3.78% a week earlier. Indias headline inflation has stayed above 9% for a year, despite 13 rate increases by the central bank since March 2010. www.capitalheight.com
  6. 6. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)4295950 TECHNICAL VIEWMoving averages Moving Averages 21 Day 50 Day 100 Day 200 Day Daily 4731 4851 4944 5213 Weekly 4941 5268 5401 4767Fibonacci retracement levels (Weekly) SCRIPT 0.0% 23.6% 38.2% 50.0% 61.8% 100.0% NIFTY 6336 5377 4777 4300 3815 2252Weekly PivotSCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4 Nifty 5430 5227 5024 4945 4820 4741 4617 4413 4210Monthly PivotSCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4 Nifty 5868 5501 5133 5000 4765 4632 4398 4030 3662 www.capitalheight.com
  7. 7. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)4295950Weekly Analysis :- S&P CNX NIFTYIf we look at a broader chart of Nifty, we can see it is working quite well withretracement of its rally started from 2252 (Nov 2008) to its peak at 6336 (Nov 2010).Nifty this month is expected to be sustain the consolidation phase or may go up due tofollowing reasons:-  Nifty currently has breached its retracement level of 38.2% and has given a closing above this retracement, from past three weeks it is resisting that level, but now this has breached that level indicating strength in the near term.  This week it has given closing above its 200 weeks moving average hence that level would act as an important support level which may support Nifty to go up.  Nifty currently is following a downward channel making lower top & lower bottoms, Nifty after making lower bottom has now taken support of this level &now is ready to go up to make its new lower top i.e. near its upward resistance line which is at 5170-5200. www.capitalheight.com
  8. 8. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)4295950Last week Nifty gave a closing before its 200 weeks moving average and if in comingweeks it trades above it; then we can see further short-term uptrend. Also it has givenclosing above its 38.2% retracement hence may see see a short term push up rally to5150-5200 where it could resist its upward resistance line drawn from peak of 6336,breaking which further we can see a upward momentum to test its 23.6% retracementwhich comes near 5400. Moreover it may range in between 4640-5150. Bank NiftyMoving averages Moving Averages 21 Day 50 Day 100 Day 200 Day Daily 8355 8684 9104 10074 Weekly 9116 10178 10390 8441Fibonacci retracement levels (Weekly) SCRIPT 0.0% 23.6% 38.2% 50.0% 61.8% 100.0% Bank Nifty 13320 10945 9505 8305 7150 3290Weekly Pivot SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4Bank Nifty 11097 10324 9551 9255 8778 8482 8005 7232 6459Monthly Pivot SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4Bank Nifty 12566 11242 9918 9438 8594 8114 7270 5946 4622 www.capitalheight.com
  9. 9. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)4295950Weekly Analysis :- BANK NIFTYHere we had applied a retracement on weekly chart of Bank Nifty started from 3290(Mar 2009) to its peak at 13320 (Nov 2010). Bank Nifty this month if may sustain thislevel or might been able to go forward, following are some key factors:-  Bank Nifty recently has broken its retracement level of 50%(8300) and has given closing above its 50% retracement, last week it has broken the level of 50%, hence if continued may test the retracement level of 38.2% (which is at around 9500).  Bank Nifty this week has also broken its 200 weeks moving average and has given the closing above that hence it is expected that this level may act as an support level resulting a short term upward momentum.  Bank Nifty currently is following an downward channel making lower top & lower bottoms currently has taken support of its lower support level, and is now ready to make new lower top in order to continue its trend . www.capitalheight.com
  10. 10. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)4295950Bank Nifty this month has given its closing above its 50% retracement level, it has givenclosing above its 200 weeks moving average as well, level and in the coming weeks wecan see upside expecting to trade above 50% retracement to test its 38.2% retracementwhich is around 9500. But, If Bank Nifty would not be able to sustain here and tradesbelow 8400-8200 in the coming weeks then we can see a short term downfall to 8100-7800. Moreover Bank Nifty is expected to trade in the range of 8150-9850. BSE SensexMoving averages Moving Averages 21 Day 50 Day 100 Day 200 Day Daily 15792 16175 16455 17396 Weekly 16455 17554 18000 15878Fibonacci retracement levels (Weekly) SCRIPT 0.0% 23.6% 38.2% 50.0% 61.8% 100.0% Sensex 21108 17980 15980 14410 12810 10870Weekly Pivot SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4 Sensex 17767 17188 16609 16382 16030 15803 15451 14872 14293Monthly Pivot SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4 Sensex 19214 18092 16971 16563 15849 15441 14728 13606 12485 www.capitalheight.com
  11. 11. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)4295950Weekly AnalysisIf we look at a broader chart of Sensex, we can see it is working quite well withretracement of its rally started from 7698 (Nov 2008) to its peak at 21108 (Nov 2010).Sensex this month is expected to be sustain the consolidation phase or may go up dueto following reasons:-  This month it has crossed its 200 weeks moving average hence that level would act as an important support level and may go up from this point.  Sensex has breached the retracement level of 38.2% and has given a closing very well above this retracement and it may further extend uptrend to test the retracement level of 23.6% which is around 18000.  Sensex currently is following an downward channel making lower top & lower bottoms & after testing its support line has retrace from this level to make its new lower top i.e. near its upward resistance line which is at around 17500-17600 hence we may see an short term upward rally. www.capitalheight.com
  12. 12. info@capitalheight.com Phone- (0731)4295950DisclaimerThe information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do notaccept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suitsthem the most.Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based onanalysis and up on sources that we consider reliable.This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibilityThe information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does notprovide individually tailor-made investment advice. Capitalheight recommends that investors independently evaluateparticular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Capitalheight shallnot be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rulesand regulations of NSE and BSE.The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein,together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to Capitalheight might beholding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so athis free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners oranyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer.All Rights Reserved.Investment in Commodity and equity market has its own risks.We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. we are not responsible for any loss incurredwhatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above. Capitalheight does notpurport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party oranyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyonewhich is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken. www.capitalheight.com

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