The Criminality of Foreigners in Portugal 11 th  Metropolis International Conference 2006/10/04 Hugo de Seabra & Tiago San...
The project <ul><li>This project resulted from a challenge posed to the research team by the coordinator of the immigratio...
<ul><li>Is the proved participation of aliens in criminal acts higher than what their proportion in the Portuguese society...
Proportion of aliens (2001) 2% 3% 4% 8% 12% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Residents Crime  suspects Condemned Pre-trail deten...
Aliens in Portuguese society <ul><li>According to the 2001 Census, the aliens residing in Portugal showed,  vis-à-vis  the...
Crime and aliens per municipality Albufeira 0‰ 20‰ 40‰ 60‰ 80‰ 100‰ 120‰ 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Percentage of aliens Crimes pe...
No relation model Demographic dynamism Secularization Economic Development Poverty Urbanity % of aliens Crimes per 1000 in...
Crime’ and aliens per municipality Albufeira -20‰ -10‰ 0‰ 10‰ 20‰ 30‰ 40‰ 50‰ 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Percentage of aliens Resi...
Criminality pyramid Real Police  knowledge Trailed Condemned Effective inmate Presumed   innocent Criminality in the  stri...
Data sources and limitations <ul><li>It’s still impossible for research purposes to follow a crime from its first registra...
Pre-trail detained suspects Article 202 of Penal Procedure Code Article 204 of Penal Procedure Code   Higher rates of  pre...
Suspects in pre-trail detention 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
Acquittals after  pre-trail detention 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
Acquittal rates 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
Condemnation rates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
Socio-demographic Characterization <ul><li>more males; </li></ul><ul><li>more single; </li></ul><ul><li>more with only bas...
Residing in a foreign country 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
Main crimes that are in the origin of condemnations <ul><li>Portuguese </li></ul><ul><li>Drunk driving </li></ul><ul><li>D...
Condemnation penalties 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali...
Prison condemnations 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. ...
Actual length of imprisionment 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Average length of imprisionment in ...
<ul><li>Portuguese </li></ul><ul><li>Qualified theft </li></ul><ul><li>Robbery </li></ul><ul><li>Drug trafficking </li></u...
Major crimes that lead to effective prison condemnations <ul><li>Drug trafficking – punished with a minimum of 4 up to 25 ...
Rate of effective prison condemnation for drug trafficking 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2...
Reasons for the over-representation Low quality of official defenses Some prejudice in the justice system Higher proportio...
Research question <ul><li>Is the proved participation of aliens in criminal acts higher than what their proportion in the ...
Crude criminality rates 7‰ 11‰ 0‰ 5‰ 10‰ 15‰ Portuguese Aliens
Standardizing Male Female 13235 0,02525 524156 6% 12272 196174 429716 12272 8378888 196174 6% 8378888 x 524156 12272 19617...
Standardized criminality rates 11‰ 11‰ 0‰ 5‰ 10‰ 15‰ Portuguese Aliens 7‰ Crude crimilaity rates
<ul><li>Thank you </li></ul>
The Criminality of Foreigners in Portugal 11 th  Metropolis International Conference 2006/10/04 Hugo de Seabra & Tiago San...
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2006.10.04

  1. 1. The Criminality of Foreigners in Portugal 11 th Metropolis International Conference 2006/10/04 Hugo de Seabra & Tiago Santos
  2. 2. The project <ul><li>This project resulted from a challenge posed to the research team by the coordinator of the immigration observatory, Eng.º Roberto Carneiro. </li></ul><ul><li>It was developed with a grant attributed by the High Commission for Immigration and Ethnic Minorities. </li></ul>
  3. 3. <ul><li>Is the proved participation of aliens in criminal acts higher than what their proportion in the Portuguese society would lead us to expect? </li></ul><ul><li>If aliens and Portuguese were to have similar situations within the social structure, would there be differences in what relates to proved criminal involvement? </li></ul>Research question
  4. 4. Proportion of aliens (2001) 2% 3% 4% 8% 12% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Residents Crime suspects Condemned Pre-trail detention Total inmates
  5. 5. Aliens in Portuguese society <ul><li>According to the 2001 Census, the aliens residing in Portugal showed, vis-à-vis the Portuguese, the following characteristics: </li></ul><ul><li>a more masculine population; </li></ul><ul><li>a younger population; </li></ul><ul><li>more single people; </li></ul><ul><li>were less religious; </li></ul><ul><li>were more formally educated; </li></ul><ul><li>were less self employed; </li></ul><ul><li>worked in less qualified occupations; </li></ul><ul><li>were more dependent on work to make a living; </li></ul><ul><li>worked longer hours; </li></ul><ul><li>daily commuted longer distances; </li></ul><ul><li>lived in more crammed hosing; </li></ul><ul><li>were more tenants; </li></ul><ul><li>paid higher rents. </li></ul>
  6. 6. Crime and aliens per municipality Albufeira 0‰ 20‰ 40‰ 60‰ 80‰ 100‰ 120‰ 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Percentage of aliens Crimes per thousand inhabitants y = 1,7072x + 17,426 R 2 = 0,1334
  7. 7. No relation model Demographic dynamism Secularization Economic Development Poverty Urbanity % of aliens Crimes per 1000 inhabitantes Standardized estimates: Chi-square = 11,464 Degrees of freedom = 14 P = 0,649 0,29 0,20 0,32 0,26 0,51 0,17 -0,20 0 ,0 0 0,23 0,40 Many banks, current expenses, pharmacies per capita, etc. The population grows, few elderly, many active, etc. Many unreligious people, births out of wedlock, divorce, etc. Great populational density, many doctors per capita, much credit per capita, high purchase power, etc. Many beneficiaries of the Social integration Income, high unemployment and population depletion .
  8. 8. Crime’ and aliens per municipality Albufeira -20‰ -10‰ 0‰ 10‰ 20‰ 30‰ 40‰ 50‰ 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Percentage of aliens Residual of crimes per thousand inhabitants y = 0,151x - 0,2286 R 2 = 0,0016
  9. 9. Criminality pyramid Real Police knowledge Trailed Condemned Effective inmate Presumed innocent Criminality in the strict sense
  10. 10. Data sources and limitations <ul><li>It’s still impossible for research purposes to follow a crime from its first registration at the police until the end of the judicial procedure; </li></ul><ul><li>This means that we are unable to study the two first floors of the criminality pyramid - real and participated criminality; </li></ul><ul><li>The data used in this study comes from the Legal Policy and Planning Office (www.gplp.mj.pt), responsible for the Portuguese Justice Statistics; </li></ul><ul><li>In this source there is no registration of the ethnic origin of each suspect - only the rudimentary dichotomy Portuguese versus aliens, therefore with no nationality description; </li></ul><ul><li>It’s impossible to know the legal status of the registered aliens, i.e. , documented, undocumented or in transit; </li></ul><ul><li>The data source (universe) was analysed for 7 years between 1997 and 2003. </li></ul>
  11. 11. Pre-trail detained suspects Article 202 of Penal Procedure Code Article 204 of Penal Procedure Code Higher rates of pre-trail suspects detention for Aliens
  12. 12. Suspects in pre-trail detention 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
  13. 13. Acquittals after pre-trail detention 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
  14. 14. Acquittal rates 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
  15. 15. Condemnation rates 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
  16. 16. Socio-demographic Characterization <ul><li>more males; </li></ul><ul><li>more single; </li></ul><ul><li>more with only basic education; </li></ul><ul><li>more employees. </li></ul><ul><li>aliens are younger; </li></ul><ul><li>the majority of single people is even clearer in aliens; </li></ul><ul><li>Aliens are more educated; </li></ul><ul><li>a sizeable proportion of condemned aliens did not reside in Portugal </li></ul>
  17. 17. Residing in a foreign country 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
  18. 18. Main crimes that are in the origin of condemnations <ul><li>Portuguese </li></ul><ul><li>Drunk driving </li></ul><ul><li>Driving with no legal permit </li></ul><ul><li>Physic integrity offenses. </li></ul><ul><li>Aliens </li></ul><ul><li>Drunk driving </li></ul><ul><li>Driving with no legal permit </li></ul><ul><li>Drug trafficking. </li></ul>
  19. 19. Condemnation penalties 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Fine Prison penalties Others
  20. 20. Prison condemnations 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. Port. Ali. 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Prison substituted by a fine Suspense prison Suspense prison with special rules Effective imprisonment
  21. 21. Actual length of imprisionment 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Average length of imprisionment in months Portuguese Aliens
  22. 22. <ul><li>Portuguese </li></ul><ul><li>Qualified theft </li></ul><ul><li>Robbery </li></ul><ul><li>Drug trafficking </li></ul><ul><li>Aliens </li></ul><ul><li>Drug trafficking </li></ul><ul><li>Robbery </li></ul><ul><li>Qualified theft. </li></ul>Crimes that lead to actual prison sentences
  23. 23. Major crimes that lead to effective prison condemnations <ul><li>Drug trafficking – punished with a minimum of 4 up to 25 prison years; </li></ul><ul><li>Robbery – punished with a maximum of 16 prison years; </li></ul><ul><li>Qualified theft – punished with a maximum of 8 prison years. </li></ul>
  24. 24. Rate of effective prison condemnation for drug trafficking 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Portuguese Aliens
  25. 25. Reasons for the over-representation Low quality of official defenses Some prejudice in the justice system Higher proportion of Aliens within the prison population Type of crime committed
  26. 26. Research question <ul><li>Is the proved participation of aliens in criminal acts higher than what their proportion in the Portuguese society would lead us to expect? </li></ul><ul><li>If aliens and Portuguese were to have similar situations within the social structure, would there be differences in what relates to proved criminal involvement? </li></ul>
  27. 27. Crude criminality rates 7‰ 11‰ 0‰ 5‰ 10‰ 15‰ Portuguese Aliens
  28. 28. Standardizing Male Female 13235 0,02525 524156 6% 12272 196174 429716 12272 8378888 196174 6% 8378888 x 524156 12272 196174 8378888 429716 + + 0,02525 0,02525 524156 x 13235 10857 303 85852 - 8378888 100% 2112 56547 Total 61 0,00016 390170 5% 4 195 9135 1270877 60 e + 168 0,00058 291421 3% 8 359 6823 628762 50-59 719 0,00120 598388 7% 24 846 14010 709732 40-49 1727 0,00167 1032038 12% 51 1244 24163 749929 30-39 1849 0,00192 964042 12% 43 1196 22571 623532 22-29 798 0,00160 499383 6% 22 660 11692 414963 16-21 520 0,00168 310000 4% 19 1598 7258 957139 60 e + 1804 0,00566 318927 4% 58 3214 7467 570916 50-59 9994 0,01221 818353 10% 261 8177 19160 671750 40-49 26227 0,01857 1412427 17% 657 13421 33069 725077 30-39 28750 0,02357 1219584 15% 662 14780 28554 626495 22-29 303 10857 16-21 Aliens Port. Aliens Port. Port. con. with aliens Structure Condem. / Resid. Port.resi. with aliens structure Aliens structure Condemnations Resident
  29. 29. Standardized criminality rates 11‰ 11‰ 0‰ 5‰ 10‰ 15‰ Portuguese Aliens 7‰ Crude crimilaity rates
  30. 30. <ul><li>Thank you </li></ul>
  31. 31. The Criminality of Foreigners in Portugal 11 th Metropolis International Conference 2006/10/04 Hugo de Seabra & Tiago Santos

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