1.
Photograph © Mary Poppendieck
Mary Poppendieck
mary@poppendieck.com
www.poppendieck.com
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2.
* Don’t Let Metrics Undermine Your Business:
An obsession with the numbers can sink your strategy
by Michael Harris and Bill Tayler, HBR Sep‐Oct 2019
* Don’t Let Metrics Undermine Your Business:
An obsession with the numbers can sink your strategy
by Michael Harris and Bill Tayler, HBR Sep‐Oct 2019
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Poppendieck.LLC
2

3.
When metrics are present, people tend to
substitute the metrics for desired outcomes.
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This substitution is intuitive;
it is done without reflection.
Photograph © Dustin Poppendieck
When a metric conflicts with
desired outcomes, the metric wins.
Managers tend to use metrics
as surrogates for strategy.*
*Willie Choi, Gary Hecht, and William Tayler
"Lost in Translation: The Effects of Incentive Compensation on Strategy Surrogation”
The Accounting Review (2010) 87 (4): 1135–1163
*Willie Choi, Gary Hecht, and William Tayler
"Lost in Translation: The Effects of Incentive Compensation on Strategy Surrogation”
The Accounting Review (2010) 87 (4): 1135–1163
This is a cognitive bias called ‘Surrogation’.

4.
Thinking harder will not eliminate a cognitive bias any more
than staring intently will make a visual illusion disappear.
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From: Attribute Substitution in Systems Engineering
by Eric D. Smith and A. Terry Bahill, 2009

5.
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Example
Photograph © Tom Poppendieck

6.
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“We try remember that medicine is for the patient.
It is not for the profits. The profits follow,
and if we have remembered that, they have never
failed to appear. The better we have remembered it,
the larger they have been.”*
George Merck, Merck & Co
President and Chairman
December 1, 1950.
George Merck, Merck & Co
President and Chairman
December 1, 1950.
Photograph © Tom Poppendieck
f{tÜx{ÉÄwxÜitÄâx

7.
Since it comes readily to mind,
it must be very important.
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We assess a target attribute
of something by substituting
another property of the object
– a heuristic attribute – which
comes more readily to mind.
Photograph © Tom Poppendieck
It looks like a duck and walks like a
duck, so it must quack like a duck.
See: Attribute Substitution in Systems Engineering
by Eric D. Smith and A. Terry Bahill, 2009
Systems Engineering 13(2):130‐148
[Anchoring Bias, Surrogation, …]
[Bandwagon Effect, Halo Effect, …]

8.
Agile and the Availability HeuristicAgile and the Availability Heuristic
Every Change Initiative Solves for the Prevailing Problems.*
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* Attribute Substitution in Systems
Engineering by Smith and Bahill
If all you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

9.
Head of
Product
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Head of
Technology
Continuous
Delivery!
More
Features!

10.
Delighted Customers
Energized Workers
Coherent, Sustainable Products / Services
Enough Money for the Organization to Thrive
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Coherent: High Integrity, Well Aligned, Adaptable
Sustainable: Available, Durable, Resilient, Upgradable
Attribute Substitution in Systems Engineering, Smith & Bahill

11.
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Photograph © Tom Poppendieck

12.
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13.
Autopilot
Fast, parallel
Automatic
Effortless
Associative
Opaque process
Skilled action
Based on heuristic knowledge
Makes Most Decisions
Filters Input to System 2 Decisions
Overrides System 2
Manual Mode
Slow, serial
Controlled
Effortful
Deductive
Self‐aware
Rule application
Based on explicit knowledge
Checks up on System 1
Avoids Information Overload
Basically Lazy
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14.
Focus System 1 limits our focus to
a specific decision criterion
within a larger set of criteria,
causing loss of information.
We tend to reduce our field of
focus when making decisions
under pressure.
In order to avoid mistakes,
recognize that we are all
biased to restrict attention.
Expand the focus by evaluating
a ‘Requisite Variety’ of options
when deciding on tradeoffs.
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Photograph © Tom Poppendieck
Attribute Substitution in Systems Engineering, Smith & Bahill

15.
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In order to deal properly with the diversity of
problems the world throws at you, you need
to have a repertoire of responses which are
at least as nuanced as the problems you face.
*Ross Dawson – rossdawson.com

16.
[Focus Required]
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Smart, Motivated Team
Shared Goal
Clear System Strategy
Current System Priorities Photograph © Tom Poppendieck
Tradeoff Decisions

17.
No Silver Bullet
1. Agile, Continuous Delivery, More Features … will not
guarantee delighted customers (or any desired outcome).
2. Tough, context‐dependent tradeoffs must be made.
3. Process and metrics encourage attribute substitution,
limiting the information considered for tough tradeoffs.
4. Incentive systems get in the way of collaboration.
5. Good tradeoffs are based on respect for customers,
for team members, for other teams, for long term
product strategy, and the need for sufficient revenue.
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Photograph © Tom Poppendieck

18.
Copyright©2019 Poppendieck.LLC
Photograph © Mary Poppendieck
Mary Poppendieck
mary@poppendieck.com
www.poppendieck.com