Asia Pacific Economic Snapshot and Outlook <ul><li>A Very Varied Region </li></ul><ul><li>Different Economies and Outlooks...
2 giants, 6 talls, 3 shorts and 2 pygmies A  Very  Varied  Region
A  Very  Varied  Region With very different lifestyles
Based on very different incomes A  Very  Varied  Region
Generated by very different economies Different  Economies
The current mixed bag of economic performance Different  Economies
Different  Outlooks Very different experiences in the downturn, and different outlooks
Some economies are more exposed and fragile Risks
Risks Having very different debt levels, and trade flows
Risks And varying stimulus firepower, and growing asset bubble risks
<ul><ul><li>The China Focus </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Japan is much bigger. Why is China the focus? Because ... </li></ul><ul...
<ul><ul><li>China  is  the Wildcard </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The 2 Year Risk = “Chimerica” being replaced by a massive one-o...
<ul><ul><li>Asian Pacific TM Centres </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Developing Markets </li></ul><ul><li>Thailand </li></ul><ul><l...
<ul><ul><li>Asian Pacific Challenges </li></ul></ul>for travel buyers <ul><li>TMCs are mostly not seamless and integrated ...
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O Connor Acte Prague Apac Eco Outlook Amended

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Presented at ACTE Conference Prague October 2009. A social and economic statistical overview of Asia Pacific, plus some travel management comments

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O Connor Acte Prague Apac Eco Outlook Amended

  1. 1. Asia Pacific Economic Snapshot and Outlook <ul><li>A Very Varied Region </li></ul><ul><li>Different Economies and Outlooks </li></ul><ul><li>Risks </li></ul><ul><li>The China Focus </li></ul><ul><li>Don’t forget Japan and India </li></ul><ul><li>But China is the Wildcard </li></ul><ul><li>APAC Travel Management Centres </li></ul><ul><li>APAC TM Challenges </li></ul><ul><li>by Tony O’Connor of Butler Caroye </li></ul>
  2. 2. 2 giants, 6 talls, 3 shorts and 2 pygmies A Very Varied Region
  3. 3. A Very Varied Region With very different lifestyles
  4. 4. Based on very different incomes A Very Varied Region
  5. 5. Generated by very different economies Different Economies
  6. 6. The current mixed bag of economic performance Different Economies
  7. 7. Different Outlooks Very different experiences in the downturn, and different outlooks
  8. 8. Some economies are more exposed and fragile Risks
  9. 9. Risks Having very different debt levels, and trade flows
  10. 10. Risks And varying stimulus firepower, and growing asset bubble risks
  11. 11. <ul><ul><li>The China Focus </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Japan is much bigger. Why is China the focus? Because ... </li></ul><ul><li>China = the cashed up factory of the world. Many now depend. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Japan and India </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Japan = the massive Asian economy, stuck in debt recovery mud </li></ul><ul><li>India = the smaller, more internal, high growth, steadying hand </li></ul>
  12. 12. <ul><ul><li>China is the Wildcard </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The 2 Year Risk = “Chimerica” being replaced by a massive one-off stimulus. So either Chinese internal demand takes off, or external demand recovers quickly, or ... ??? </li></ul><ul><li>The 1 Year Risk = the classic emerging market asset bubble. The foam is reforming ... </li></ul><ul><li>The Anytime Risk = The inevitable earthquake of revaluing the yuan </li></ul><ul><li>The 20 Year Risk = A tip of the “Thousand Year Disunity Cycle” </li></ul><ul><li>Whatever happens to demand, stocks, currency or politically, the economic consequences will flow through America to the world. </li></ul>
  13. 13. <ul><ul><li>Asian Pacific TM Centres </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Developing Markets </li></ul><ul><li>Thailand </li></ul><ul><li>Indonesia </li></ul><ul><li>Korea </li></ul><ul><li>Taiwan </li></ul><ul><li>Philippines </li></ul><ul><li>Vietnam </li></ul>and their attributes very different MumDelBang ShangBei Tokyo SinHonk MelSyd
  14. 14. <ul><ul><li>Asian Pacific Challenges </li></ul></ul>for travel buyers <ul><li>TMCs are mostly not seamless and integrated across the region. Different systems, processes, P&Ls, cultures </li></ul><ul><li>Systems differ, and vary greatly in availability and quality – OBTs, EMSs, GDSs </li></ul><ul><li>Accommodation: Assess DP carefully, and grab the rate dips </li></ul><ul><li>Commissions: Huge variations in levels and attitudes </li></ul><ul><li>Be very careful of regional and global deals covering Asia Pac. Justify why, not why not. </li></ul>

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