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General Info                                                                                     General Info (cont’d)
                                                                                       instructor: Jörg Tiedemann (j.tiedemann@rug.nl)                                                  Website: http://www.let.rug.nl/˜tiedeman/ml08
   Machine Learning, LIX004M5                                                               Harmoniegebouw, room 1311-429                                                               Examination: 3 obligatory lab assignments
              Overview and Introduction                                                lab assistant: Ça˘ rı Çöltekin (c.coltekin@rug.nl)
                                                                                                           g                                                                                present and report final project (50%)
                                                                                       prerequisites: open to students in Computer                                                          written exam (50%)
                        J¨ rg Tiedemann
                         o
                      tiedeman@let.rug.nl
                                                                                            Science, Artificial Intelligence and Information                                             Exam: Friday, October 24, 9-12 (AZERN)
                                                                                            Science, 2nd year student or higher                                                         Literature: Tom Mitchell Machine Learning, New
                        Informatiekunde                                                     background: programming ability, elementary                                                     York: McGraw-Hill, 1997
                   Rijksuniversiteit Groningen                                              statistics                                                                                      additional on-line literature (links available from
                                                                                       schedule: September 1 - October 24                                                                   the course website)
                                                                                              • lectures: mondays 9:15-11
                                                                                              • labs: fridays 9-12 (2 groups?)


                                                                                       5 ECT
                                                 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.1/29                                                              Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.2/29                                                        Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.3/29




General Info (cont’d)                                                                  Preliminary Program - Lectures                                                                   Preliminary Program - Labs
Purpose of this course                                                                 We will only manage to look at a selection of the                                                6 lab sessions, 3 short lab reports, 1 final project
  • Introduction to machine learning techniques                                        topics in book:
                                                                                                                                                                                          • evaluation in ML (Ch.5), introduction to topics for the final
  • Discussion of several machine learning                                               1. Organization, Introduction, (Ch.1, Ch.2)                                                        project, getting started with WEKA (report 1)
    approaches                                                                           2. Decision Trees (Ch.3)                                                                         • select & start with final project
  • Examples and applications in various fields                                                                                                                                            • decision trees & instance-based learning (report2)
                                                                                         3. Instance-Based Learning (Ch.8)
  • Practical assignments                                                                4. Bayesian Learning & EM (Ch.6)                                                                 • work on final project
     • using Weka - a machine learning package
                                                                                         5. Rule Induction & Reinforcement Learning (Ch.13)                                               • classification & model comparison (report 3)
        implemented in Java
                                                                                         6. Sequential data & Markov Models (Ch.9)                                                        • work on final project
     • some theoretical questions
     • independent group work on final project                                            7. Presentations of Final Projects




                                                 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.4/29                                                              Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.5/29                                                        Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.6/29




What is Machine learning?                                                              What is all the hype about ML?                                                                   Why machine learning?
Machine Learning is                                                                                                                                                                     data mining: pattern recognition, knowledge
 • the study of algorithms that                                                                                                                                                              discovery, use historical data to improve future
                                                                                       "Every time I fire a linguist the performance of the                                                   decisions, prediction (classification, regression),
     • improve their performance
                                                                                       recognizer goes up"                                                                                   data discripton (clustering, summarization,
     • at some task
                                                                                                                                                                                             visualization)
     • with experience
                                                                                       (probably) said by Fred Jelinek (IBM speech group) in the 80s, quoted by, e.g.,                  complex applications: we cannot program by hand,
                                                                                       Jurafsky and Martin, Speech and Language Processing.                                                  (efficient) processing of complex signals
... just like a human being ... (?)                                                                                                                                                     self-customizing programs: automatic adjustments
                                                                                                                                                                                             according to usage, dynamic systems




                                                 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.7/29                                                              Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.8/29                                                        Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.9/29
Typical Data Mining Task                                                                         Pattern Recognition                                                            Classification
                                                                                                 Object detection                                                               Personal home page? Company website? Educational site?




Given:
    • 9714 patient records, each describing a pregnancy and birth
    • Each patient record contains 215 features
Learn to predict:
    • Classes of future patients at high risk for Emergency Cesarean Section



                                                          Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.10/29                                           Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.11/29                                                    Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.12/29




Complex applications                                                                             Automatic customization                                                        Machine learning is growing
Robots playing football in RoboCup                                                                                                                                              many more applications:
colour classification (DT,NN), player positioning (RL), behaviors (RL,
GA), team strategy adaptation (mixture of experts), ball kicking (GA)
                                                                                                                                                                                  •   speech recognition
...                                                                                                                                                                               •   spam filtering, sorting data
http://www.robocup.org/
http://sserver.sourceforge.net/SIG-learn/
                                                                                                                                                                                  •   machine translation
                                                                                                                                                                                  •   robot control
                                                                                                                                                                                  •   financial data analysis and market predictions
                                                                                                                                                                                  •   hand writing recognition
                                                                                                                                                                                  •   data clustering and visualization
                                                                                                                                                                                  •   pattern recognition in genetics (e.g. DNA
                                                                                                                                                                                      sequences)
                                                                                                                                                                                  •   ...
                                                          Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.13/29                                           Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.14/29                                                    Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.15/29




Questions to ask                                                                                 What experience?                                                               What exactly should be learned?
Learning = improve with experience at some task                                                    •   What do we know already about the task and                               Outcome of the target function
                                                                                                       possible solutions? (prior knowledge)                                     • boolean (→ concept learning)
    •   What experience?                                                                           •   What kind of data do we have available?                                   • discrete values (→ classification)
    •   What exactly should be learned?                                                            •   How much data do we need and how clean does it                            • real values (→ regression)
    •   How shall it be represented?                                                                   have to be? (training examples)
    •   What specific algorithm to learn it?                                                            What are the discriminative features? How are                            many machine learning tasks are classification tasks ...
                                                                                                       they connected with each other (dependencies)?
Goal: handle unseen data correctly according to the                                                •   Is a “teacher” available (→ supervised learning)
task (use your knowledge inferred from experience!)
                                                                                                       or not (→ unsupervised learning)?
                                                                                                       How expensive is labeling?



                                                          Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.16/29                                           Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.17/29                                                    Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.18/29
How shall it be represented?                                                      What algorithm to learn it?                                                                 Inductive learning as search
Model selection                                                                   Learning means approximating the real (unknown)                                             Inductive learning: infer a model from training data
                                                                                  target function according to our experience (e.g.                                           example: concept learning
  •   symbolic representation (e.g. with rules, trees)                            observed training examples)                                                                    • a set of instances X with attributes a1 ..an
  •   subsymbolic representation (neural networks,
      SVMs)                                                                       → Learning = search for a “good” hypothesis/model                                              • Hypotheses H: set of functions h : X → {0, 1}
                                                                                                                                                                                 • Representation: e.g. conjunction of constraints
Do we want to restrict the space of possible solutions?                           Do we want to prefer certain models?
                                                                                                                                                                                 • Training examples D: a sequence of positive and negative
(→ restriction bias)                                                              (→ preference bias)
                                                                                                                                                                                    examples of the unknown target function c : X → {0, 1}

                                                                                                                                                                              what we want is: hypothesis hc such that hc (x) = c(x) for all x ∈ X
                                                                                                                                                                                                              ˆ           ˆ
                                                                                                                                                                              what we can observe: hypothesis h such that h(x) = c(x) for all
                                                                                                                                                                                   x∈D



                                           Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.19/29                                                        Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.20/29                                                               Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.21/29




Instances & Hypotheses                                                            Inductive bias                                                                              Learning Models
                                                                                     •   corresponds to prior knowledge about data and                                        Learning means approximating the real (unknown)
                                                                                         task (a priori assumptions)                                                          target function according to our experience (e.g.
                                                                                     •   depends on learning algorithm and model                                              observed training examples)
                                                                                         representation                                                                       → Learning = search for a “good” hypothesis/model
                                                                                  Restriction bias:
                                                                                                                                                                              Which one is better?
                                                                                     • hypothesis space is restricted (also: language bias)

                                                                                  Preference bias:

                                                                                     • prefer certain hypotheses (usually more general ones)

                                                                                  Why do we need inductive bias?
Consistent(h, D) ≡ (∀ x, c(x) ∈ D) h(x) = c(x)
version space: V SH,D ≡ {h ∈ H|Consistent(h, D)}
                                           Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.22/29                                                        Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.23/29                                                               Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.24/29




Learning Models                                                                   What algorithm to learn it?                                                                 The roots of ML
Learning means approximating the real (unknown)                                   Learning means approximating the real (unknown)                                             Artificial intelligence: use prior knowledge and training data to guide
target function according to our experience (e.g.                                 target function according to our experience (e.g.                                                 learning as a search problem
observed training examples)                                                       observed training examples)                                                                 Baysian methods: probabilistic classifiers, probabilistic reasoning
                                                                                                                                                                              Statistics: data description, estimation of probability distributions,
→ Learning = search for a “good” hypothesis/model                                 → Learning = search for a “good” hypothesis/model                                                  evaluation, confidence
                                                                                                                                                                              Information theory: entropy, information content, code optimsation and the
Which one is better?                                                              decision trees & information gain
                                                                                                                                                                                   minimum description length principle
                                                                                  bayesian techniques & maximum likelihood estimations
                                                                                                                                                                              Computational complexity theory: trade-off between model (learning)
                                                                                  least mean square algorithm, gradient search
                                                                                                                                                                                  complexity and performance
                                                                                  expectation maximization
                                                                                                                                                                              Psychology and neurobiology: response improvement with practice, ideas
                                                                                  maximum entropy
                                                                                                                                                                                   that lead to artificical neural networks
                                                                                  minimum description length
                                                                                                                                                                              Philosophy: Occam’s razor (simple is best)
                                                                                  reinforcement learning
What would be a model without inductive bias?
                                                                                  genetic algorithms, simulated annealing
                                           Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.25/29                                                        Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.26/29                                                               Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.27/29
Take-home messages                                                             What’s next?

  •   ML = algorithms that learn from experience                               This week: Read ch. 1, ch. 2 & ch. 5 of Mitchell and
  •   generalize instead of memorize                                               look at the exercises
  •   different types of inductive bias                                        Lab on Friday: Evaluation in ML, introduction of
                                                                                   final projects, small exercises
  •   ML has many fascinating sub-tasks
                                                                               Next week: Decision trees, ch. 3, lab session on
Enjoy working with learning systems!                                               Decision Trees & IBL




                                        Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.28/29                                          Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.29/29

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Machine Learning, LIX004M5

  • 1. General Info General Info (cont’d) instructor: Jörg Tiedemann (j.tiedemann@rug.nl) Website: http://www.let.rug.nl/˜tiedeman/ml08 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 Harmoniegebouw, room 1311-429 Examination: 3 obligatory lab assignments Overview and Introduction lab assistant: Ça˘ rı Çöltekin (c.coltekin@rug.nl) g present and report final project (50%) prerequisites: open to students in Computer written exam (50%) J¨ rg Tiedemann o tiedeman@let.rug.nl Science, Artificial Intelligence and Information Exam: Friday, October 24, 9-12 (AZERN) Science, 2nd year student or higher Literature: Tom Mitchell Machine Learning, New Informatiekunde background: programming ability, elementary York: McGraw-Hill, 1997 Rijksuniversiteit Groningen statistics additional on-line literature (links available from schedule: September 1 - October 24 the course website) • lectures: mondays 9:15-11 • labs: fridays 9-12 (2 groups?) 5 ECT Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.1/29 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.2/29 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.3/29 General Info (cont’d) Preliminary Program - Lectures Preliminary Program - Labs Purpose of this course We will only manage to look at a selection of the 6 lab sessions, 3 short lab reports, 1 final project • Introduction to machine learning techniques topics in book: • evaluation in ML (Ch.5), introduction to topics for the final • Discussion of several machine learning 1. Organization, Introduction, (Ch.1, Ch.2) project, getting started with WEKA (report 1) approaches 2. Decision Trees (Ch.3) • select & start with final project • Examples and applications in various fields • decision trees & instance-based learning (report2) 3. Instance-Based Learning (Ch.8) • Practical assignments 4. Bayesian Learning & EM (Ch.6) • work on final project • using Weka - a machine learning package 5. Rule Induction & Reinforcement Learning (Ch.13) • classification & model comparison (report 3) implemented in Java 6. Sequential data & Markov Models (Ch.9) • work on final project • some theoretical questions • independent group work on final project 7. Presentations of Final Projects Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.4/29 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.5/29 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.6/29 What is Machine learning? What is all the hype about ML? Why machine learning? Machine Learning is data mining: pattern recognition, knowledge • the study of algorithms that discovery, use historical data to improve future "Every time I fire a linguist the performance of the decisions, prediction (classification, regression), • improve their performance recognizer goes up" data discripton (clustering, summarization, • at some task visualization) • with experience (probably) said by Fred Jelinek (IBM speech group) in the 80s, quoted by, e.g., complex applications: we cannot program by hand, Jurafsky and Martin, Speech and Language Processing. (efficient) processing of complex signals ... just like a human being ... (?) self-customizing programs: automatic adjustments according to usage, dynamic systems Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.7/29 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.8/29 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.9/29
  • 2. Typical Data Mining Task Pattern Recognition Classification Object detection Personal home page? Company website? Educational site? Given: • 9714 patient records, each describing a pregnancy and birth • Each patient record contains 215 features Learn to predict: • Classes of future patients at high risk for Emergency Cesarean Section Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.10/29 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.11/29 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.12/29 Complex applications Automatic customization Machine learning is growing Robots playing football in RoboCup many more applications: colour classification (DT,NN), player positioning (RL), behaviors (RL, GA), team strategy adaptation (mixture of experts), ball kicking (GA) • speech recognition ... • spam filtering, sorting data http://www.robocup.org/ http://sserver.sourceforge.net/SIG-learn/ • machine translation • robot control • financial data analysis and market predictions • hand writing recognition • data clustering and visualization • pattern recognition in genetics (e.g. DNA sequences) • ... Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.13/29 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.14/29 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.15/29 Questions to ask What experience? What exactly should be learned? Learning = improve with experience at some task • What do we know already about the task and Outcome of the target function possible solutions? (prior knowledge) • boolean (→ concept learning) • What experience? • What kind of data do we have available? • discrete values (→ classification) • What exactly should be learned? • How much data do we need and how clean does it • real values (→ regression) • How shall it be represented? have to be? (training examples) • What specific algorithm to learn it? What are the discriminative features? How are many machine learning tasks are classification tasks ... they connected with each other (dependencies)? Goal: handle unseen data correctly according to the • Is a “teacher” available (→ supervised learning) task (use your knowledge inferred from experience!) or not (→ unsupervised learning)? How expensive is labeling? Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.16/29 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.17/29 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.18/29
  • 3. How shall it be represented? What algorithm to learn it? Inductive learning as search Model selection Learning means approximating the real (unknown) Inductive learning: infer a model from training data target function according to our experience (e.g. example: concept learning • symbolic representation (e.g. with rules, trees) observed training examples) • a set of instances X with attributes a1 ..an • subsymbolic representation (neural networks, SVMs) → Learning = search for a “good” hypothesis/model • Hypotheses H: set of functions h : X → {0, 1} • Representation: e.g. conjunction of constraints Do we want to restrict the space of possible solutions? Do we want to prefer certain models? • Training examples D: a sequence of positive and negative (→ restriction bias) (→ preference bias) examples of the unknown target function c : X → {0, 1} what we want is: hypothesis hc such that hc (x) = c(x) for all x ∈ X ˆ ˆ what we can observe: hypothesis h such that h(x) = c(x) for all x∈D Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.19/29 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.20/29 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.21/29 Instances & Hypotheses Inductive bias Learning Models • corresponds to prior knowledge about data and Learning means approximating the real (unknown) task (a priori assumptions) target function according to our experience (e.g. • depends on learning algorithm and model observed training examples) representation → Learning = search for a “good” hypothesis/model Restriction bias: Which one is better? • hypothesis space is restricted (also: language bias) Preference bias: • prefer certain hypotheses (usually more general ones) Why do we need inductive bias? Consistent(h, D) ≡ (∀ x, c(x) ∈ D) h(x) = c(x) version space: V SH,D ≡ {h ∈ H|Consistent(h, D)} Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.22/29 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.23/29 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.24/29 Learning Models What algorithm to learn it? The roots of ML Learning means approximating the real (unknown) Learning means approximating the real (unknown) Artificial intelligence: use prior knowledge and training data to guide target function according to our experience (e.g. target function according to our experience (e.g. learning as a search problem observed training examples) observed training examples) Baysian methods: probabilistic classifiers, probabilistic reasoning Statistics: data description, estimation of probability distributions, → Learning = search for a “good” hypothesis/model → Learning = search for a “good” hypothesis/model evaluation, confidence Information theory: entropy, information content, code optimsation and the Which one is better? decision trees & information gain minimum description length principle bayesian techniques & maximum likelihood estimations Computational complexity theory: trade-off between model (learning) least mean square algorithm, gradient search complexity and performance expectation maximization Psychology and neurobiology: response improvement with practice, ideas maximum entropy that lead to artificical neural networks minimum description length Philosophy: Occam’s razor (simple is best) reinforcement learning What would be a model without inductive bias? genetic algorithms, simulated annealing Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.25/29 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.26/29 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.27/29
  • 4. Take-home messages What’s next? • ML = algorithms that learn from experience This week: Read ch. 1, ch. 2 & ch. 5 of Mitchell and • generalize instead of memorize look at the exercises • different types of inductive bias Lab on Friday: Evaluation in ML, introduction of final projects, small exercises • ML has many fascinating sub-tasks Next week: Decision trees, ch. 3, lab session on Enjoy working with learning systems! Decision Trees & IBL Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.28/29 Machine Learning, LIX004M5 – p.29/29