The Labor Market Situation in March
Office of Economic Policy
April 7, 2014
Dr. Jennifer Hunt
Deputy Assistant Secretary, ...
11Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy1
Payroll survey: met (fairly) high expectations
1-month change, in thousan...
22Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy2
Previous months revised +37,000
The longer trend still shows steady growth
33Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy3
Seems slow patch was indeed weather
Private sector employment has surpas...
44Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy4
Employment growth by super-sector this month
55Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy5
Employment growth by super-sector over the year
66Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy6
Unemployment rate was flat…
March 2014 6.7%
February 2014 6.7%
January 20...
77Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy7
…employment rate ticked up again – trend?
March 2014: 58.9%
February 2014...
88Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy8
LFP ticked up (trend?) – though flat over the year
March 2014: 63.2%
Febr...
99Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy9
Not in Labor Force
-331,000
Employed
+476,000
Unemployed
+27,000
Not in L...
1010Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy10
Long-term unemployment rate ticked down,
but remains highest since 198...
1111Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy11
Part-time employment remains elevated,
but more full-time than part-ti...
1212Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy12
Weather had reduced hours,
but returned to record high (since July 194...
1313Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy13
Average hourly earnings up 2.1% over-the-year
1414Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy14
Summary of month
Hours have recovered from weather
Back to the pre-s...
Thank you!
1616Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy16
Employment growth by super-sector peak to trough
1717Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy17
Two employment surveys:
CES & Payroll-concept-adjusted CPS
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The Labour Market Situation: March 2014 Jobs Report

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Dr Jennifer Hunt, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Dept. of Treasury, reports on the Labor market situation for February 2014.

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The Labour Market Situation: March 2014 Jobs Report

  1. 1. The Labor Market Situation in March Office of Economic Policy April 7, 2014 Dr. Jennifer Hunt Deputy Assistant Secretary, Microeconomic Analysis
  2. 2. 11Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy1 Payroll survey: met (fairly) high expectations 1-month change, in thousands • March 2014 192 • February 2014 188 • January 2014 166 12-month change, in thousands • March 2013 to 2014: 2,265 • Average: 189
  3. 3. 22Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy2 Previous months revised +37,000 The longer trend still shows steady growth
  4. 4. 33Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy3 Seems slow patch was indeed weather Private sector employment has surpassed pre-recession peak Sector we were still monitoring was retail trade – Still a bit sluggish for third month: – +21,000 compared to average of 26,000 last 12 months
  5. 5. 44Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy4 Employment growth by super-sector this month
  6. 6. 55Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy5 Employment growth by super-sector over the year
  7. 7. 66Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy6 Unemployment rate was flat… March 2014 6.7% February 2014 6.7% January 2014 6.6% March 2013: 7.5%
  8. 8. 77Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy7 …employment rate ticked up again – trend? March 2014: 58.9% February 2014: 58.8% January 2014: 58.8% March 2013: 58.5%
  9. 9. 88Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy8 LFP ticked up (trend?) – though flat over the year March 2014: 63.2% February 2014: 63.0% January 2014: 63.0% March 2013: 63.3%
  10. 10. 99Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy9 Not in Labor Force -331,000 Employed +476,000 Unemployed +27,000 Not in Labor Force 84,375,000 Employed 139,287,000 Unemployed 5,867,000 More entrants got jobs than became unemployed 2,315,000 2,692,000 net other 9,000 net other 110,000 net other 54,000
  11. 11. 1010Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy10 Long-term unemployment rate ticked down, but remains highest since 1983 March 2014: 2.4% February 2014: 2.5% January 2014: 2.3% March 2013: 3.0%
  12. 12. 1111Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy11 Part-time employment remains elevated, but more full-time than part-time jobs being created past 12 months • full-time employment + 2,102,000 • part-time employment +191,000 since ACA was passed (March 2010) • full-time employment + 6,813,000 • part-time employment +126,000
  13. 13. 1212Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy12 Weather had reduced hours, but returned to record high (since July 1945)
  14. 14. 1313Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy13 Average hourly earnings up 2.1% over-the-year
  15. 15. 1414Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy14 Summary of month Hours have recovered from weather Back to the pre-shutdown pattern of steady employment growth – Keeps up with population growth – Possibly seeing movement in employment rate, participation Wages – Pretty steady 2% annually in nominal terms – Falling inflation just under 2% is helping purchasing power – But real wages remain low
  16. 16. Thank you!
  17. 17. 1616Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy16 Employment growth by super-sector peak to trough
  18. 18. 1717Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy17 Two employment surveys: CES & Payroll-concept-adjusted CPS

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