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Beyond Autonomous Driving:
Remote Equipment Diagnostics and Other Successful
Applications of AI Technologies in Global Industry
Dr. Burton H. Lee PhD MBA
European Entrepreneurship & Innovation | Mechanical Engineering | Stanford University
Burton.Lee@innovarium.net | www.StanfordEuropreneurs.org
175. Jubiläum – IHK für München und Oberbayern
21. September 2018 | München, Bayern DE
Copyright Burton H. Lee 2018
All Rights Reserved.
May Not Be Used by IHK München or Other IHK Bezirke
For Use in Courses or Other Company Executive Education & Training Activities
without Prior Written Authorization from Author.
221. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee
Grüße aus Silicon Valley
(and the Republic of California) 3
Key Topics
• Definitions of Artificial Intelligence
– Germany vs US and World
• Remote Equipment Diagnostics (Fern Diagnose)
– Equipment Diagnostic Modelling as Important Branch of AI
– Industries, Markets, Business Rationale, Customer Demand and
Business Models for Remote Diagnostics Services in
Manufacturing Sector
– Overview of Example Technical Architectures
– General Electric, Siemens, Rolls Royce, other manufacturing
companies
– Critical Importance of Remote Access for Machine Data
• Beyond Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL)
– Other AI Approaches: Use of Bayesian Causal Probabilistic
Networks to Model and Predict Manufacturing Equipment Failure
– Example: Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment
21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 4
About Your Speaker Today
12 Sept 2018 Copyright Burton H. Lee 2018 6
Stanford University | Silicon Valley
European Entrepreneurship & Innovation (ME421)
Stanford Engineering School
Year Nine || 2018
7
@Europreneurs
12 Sept 2018 Copyright Burton H. Lee 2018
Jan 2018 Speakers
Estonia : Urban Delivery Robot Startups & eGovt Innovation
Copyright Burton H. Lee 2018 8
Feb 26 2018 Speakers @ Stanford
New EU Data Privacy Rules (GDPR) : Lessons for Silicon Valley Companies & Startups
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Visiting Siemens Rail Carriage Factory
Graz, Austria | June 2016
DoktorArbeit @ Stanford ::
Remote Diagnostics of Complex Mechatronic Equipment
Engineering
Design
Artificial
Intelligence
Internet
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DoktorArbeit @ Stanford ::
Remote Diagnostics of Complex Mechatronic Equipment
FMEA1
Bayesian
Network
Diagnostics
Internet
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1) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis
Industrial Experience | Academic Training
• Hewlett Packard, Solutions Services Division, Silicon Valley
• Daimler ForschungsLabor, Esslingen DE
• General Electric Global Research, Niskayuna NY
• Ph.D., Mechanical & Electrical Engineering, Center for
Design Research, Stanford University (with focus on
Artificial Intelligence, Diagnostics, Engineering Design)
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12 Sept 2018 Copyright Burton H. Lee 2018 14
Creating an AI Strategy & Roadmap for Oberösterreich – Workshop Leaders
Dr. Burton Lee, Deputy Governor OÖ Michael Strugl, Prof. Sepp Hochreiter, JKU Rektor Prof. Meinhard Lukas
Linz, Austria | July 2017
What is Artificial Intelligence?
Differing Definitions and Problem Spaces
in USA and Germany
A few examples of what
various industry & academic communities
around the world
consider to be part of the
‘Artificial Intelligence’ domain
today, and historically …
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In the USA, UK, Canada, Israel and China,
AI is viewed as a much larger field than
Machine Learning (ML) & Deep Learning (DL),
which dominate discussions today in much of
Germany & Continental Europe
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Case-Based Reasoning | Ontologies & Knowledge Engineering | Bayesian (Probabilistic) Networks | Distributed AI
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
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Artificial General Intelligence
(AGI)
Main Generations of Artificial Intelligence (simplified)
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CASE STUDIES
in Applied Artificial Intelligence
in Industry Today
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Remote Diagnostics Services
Overview of Global Industry
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Remote Diagnostics Market Revenues:
USA : $4.3 Bn (2017)
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When Is Investment in Remote Diagnostic Technology Justified??
Other Key Players in Remote Diagnostics
• Xerox : office equipment
• Caterpillar : large-scale construction equipment operating
in remote sites (dams, etc)
• Rolls Royce : turbines and engines
• IBM : computers
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CASE STUDIES
Siemens
Rolls Royce
General Electric
Caterpillar
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2014 Data
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Remote Diagnostics Services Are Key Elements
of New Business Models Driving Industrial Enterprises Today
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Remote Diagnostics Tasks and Services
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Effective Remote Maintenance
Made Possible by Big Data
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CASE STUDY
Remote Diagnostics & Monitoring of
Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment
(USA, Taiwan, Japan)
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2006
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CASE STUDY
Diagnostic Modeling of
Semiconductor Manufacturing
Equipment Failure Modes
Bayesian Networks
(Probabilistic Causal Networks)
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Reactive Ion Etching (RIE) Equipment
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Modeling Equipment Failure Modes
via Probabilistic Causal Bayesian Networks
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Fishbone Diagram for Faults in RIE Device
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Proposed Three-Layer Design of Bayesian Network Failure Model
RIE Etch Equipment Failure Diagnosis
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Full Bayesian Network Model for the Fault Diagnosis in RIE Etch Equipment
Root Causes
Modules
Data
Parameters
RIE Etch Equipment Failure Diagnosis
21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 85
Implemented (Reduced) Bayesian Causal Network – RIE Etcher Failure Diagnosis
21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 86
Other Examples of Bayesian Network Models
of Manufacturing Equipment Failure Diagnosis
VIELEN DANK !!
Dr. Burton H. Lee PhD MBA
Mechanical Engineering Dept
Center for Design Research
Stanford University
Burton.Lee@innovarium.net
Silicon Valley, CA
87
Working in Silicon Valley, Europe, Latin America and Washington DC
• Senior financial, technical and strategy advisory services for global technology companies
• Professional Services
– Technology growth companies and startups
• Artificial Intelligence strategy, products/services, business models and technical architectures
• Digitalisation culture change, management, business processes, business model creation, new services
• Interim CXO and Advisory Board roles
• Expert guidance & decision-making at the interface between market/customers, technology and finance
• Business plan preparation/research/review;
• Executive training, coaching and mentoring of CEOs, board members and other CXO-level managers
– Angel, venture capital and private equity Investors
• Fund strategy, team selection and market positioning
• Due diligence: technical, financial, strategy and business models
– Public and non-profit R&D laboratories
• Technology transfer & partnerships; venturing and spin-out of companies; strategy and business development; grant applications
– Research universities
• Innovation-related models, policies and practices
• Technology transfer and licensing; industry partnerships and relations; development and strategy; grant applications
– National and regional government agencies
• Innovation policy formulation, analysis and review; cluster development strategy; economic impact studies
• Science & technology policy formulation, analysis & review: space, aviation, nanotechnology, software/AI/robotics, manufacturing
• Selected recent clients
– German family-owned Mittelstand enterprises – automotive supplier industry
– US/European technology startup companies – alternative energy, robotics/AI, software, Internet, nanotech
– Venture and private equity funds – aerospace, nanotechnology, ICT, computing, advanced materials, clean tech
– Office of the Prime Minister, Ireland; European Commission; National Science Foundation; NASA, National Academies
• Dr. Burton Lee PhD MBA, Managing Director
– Contact: Burton.Lee@innovarium.net Based in Palo Alto, CA near Stanford University
– Bio/References: LinkedIn Profile
– Adjunct Professor, European Entrepreneurship & Innovation, Mechanical Engineering, Stanford University 88

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Burton Lee - AI and Remote Diagnostics of Factory Equipment - IHK München 175 - 21 Sept 2018 - Final

  • 1. Beyond Autonomous Driving: Remote Equipment Diagnostics and Other Successful Applications of AI Technologies in Global Industry Dr. Burton H. Lee PhD MBA European Entrepreneurship & Innovation | Mechanical Engineering | Stanford University Burton.Lee@innovarium.net | www.StanfordEuropreneurs.org 175. Jubiläum – IHK für München und Oberbayern 21. September 2018 | München, Bayern DE
  • 2. Copyright Burton H. Lee 2018 All Rights Reserved. May Not Be Used by IHK München or Other IHK Bezirke For Use in Courses or Other Company Executive Education & Training Activities without Prior Written Authorization from Author. 221. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee
  • 3. Grüße aus Silicon Valley (and the Republic of California) 3
  • 4. Key Topics • Definitions of Artificial Intelligence – Germany vs US and World • Remote Equipment Diagnostics (Fern Diagnose) – Equipment Diagnostic Modelling as Important Branch of AI – Industries, Markets, Business Rationale, Customer Demand and Business Models for Remote Diagnostics Services in Manufacturing Sector – Overview of Example Technical Architectures – General Electric, Siemens, Rolls Royce, other manufacturing companies – Critical Importance of Remote Access for Machine Data • Beyond Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) – Other AI Approaches: Use of Bayesian Causal Probabilistic Networks to Model and Predict Manufacturing Equipment Failure – Example: Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 4
  • 6. 12 Sept 2018 Copyright Burton H. Lee 2018 6 Stanford University | Silicon Valley
  • 7. European Entrepreneurship & Innovation (ME421) Stanford Engineering School Year Nine || 2018 7 @Europreneurs 12 Sept 2018 Copyright Burton H. Lee 2018
  • 8. Jan 2018 Speakers Estonia : Urban Delivery Robot Startups & eGovt Innovation Copyright Burton H. Lee 2018 8
  • 9. Feb 26 2018 Speakers @ Stanford New EU Data Privacy Rules (GDPR) : Lessons for Silicon Valley Companies & Startups 12 Sept 2018 Copyright Burton H. Lee 2018 9
  • 10. 12 Sept 2018 Copyright Burton H. Lee 2018 10 Visiting Siemens Rail Carriage Factory Graz, Austria | June 2016
  • 11. DoktorArbeit @ Stanford :: Remote Diagnostics of Complex Mechatronic Equipment Engineering Design Artificial Intelligence Internet 21 Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 11
  • 12. DoktorArbeit @ Stanford :: Remote Diagnostics of Complex Mechatronic Equipment FMEA1 Bayesian Network Diagnostics Internet 21 Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 12 1) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis
  • 13. Industrial Experience | Academic Training • Hewlett Packard, Solutions Services Division, Silicon Valley • Daimler ForschungsLabor, Esslingen DE • General Electric Global Research, Niskayuna NY • Ph.D., Mechanical & Electrical Engineering, Center for Design Research, Stanford University (with focus on Artificial Intelligence, Diagnostics, Engineering Design) 21 Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 13
  • 14. 12 Sept 2018 Copyright Burton H. Lee 2018 14 Creating an AI Strategy & Roadmap for Oberösterreich – Workshop Leaders Dr. Burton Lee, Deputy Governor OÖ Michael Strugl, Prof. Sepp Hochreiter, JKU Rektor Prof. Meinhard Lukas Linz, Austria | July 2017
  • 15. What is Artificial Intelligence? Differing Definitions and Problem Spaces in USA and Germany
  • 16. A few examples of what various industry & academic communities around the world consider to be part of the ‘Artificial Intelligence’ domain today, and historically … 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 16
  • 17. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 17
  • 18. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 18
  • 19. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 19
  • 20. In the USA, UK, Canada, Israel and China, AI is viewed as a much larger field than Machine Learning (ML) & Deep Learning (DL), which dominate discussions today in much of Germany & Continental Europe 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 20
  • 21.
  • 22. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 22
  • 23. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 23
  • 24. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 24
  • 25. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 25
  • 26. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 26 Case-Based Reasoning | Ontologies & Knowledge Engineering | Bayesian (Probabilistic) Networks | Distributed AI Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
  • 27. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 27
  • 28. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 28
  • 29. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 29
  • 30. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 30 Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) Main Generations of Artificial Intelligence (simplified)
  • 31. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 31
  • 32. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 32
  • 33. CASE STUDIES in Applied Artificial Intelligence in Industry Today
  • 34. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 34
  • 35. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 35
  • 36. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 36
  • 37. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 37
  • 38. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 38
  • 40. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 40
  • 41. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 41
  • 42. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 42 Remote Diagnostics Market Revenues: USA : $4.3 Bn (2017)
  • 43. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 43
  • 44. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 44 When Is Investment in Remote Diagnostic Technology Justified??
  • 45. Other Key Players in Remote Diagnostics • Xerox : office equipment • Caterpillar : large-scale construction equipment operating in remote sites (dams, etc) • Rolls Royce : turbines and engines • IBM : computers 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 45
  • 47. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 47
  • 48. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 48
  • 49. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 49 2014 Data
  • 50. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 50
  • 51. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 51 Remote Diagnostics Services Are Key Elements of New Business Models Driving Industrial Enterprises Today
  • 52. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 52
  • 53. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 53 Remote Diagnostics Tasks and Services
  • 54. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 54
  • 55. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 55
  • 56. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 56
  • 57. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 57 Effective Remote Maintenance Made Possible by Big Data
  • 58. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 58
  • 59. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 59
  • 60. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 60
  • 61. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 61
  • 62. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 62
  • 63. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 63
  • 64. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 64
  • 65. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 65
  • 66. CASE STUDY Remote Diagnostics & Monitoring of Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment (USA, Taiwan, Japan)
  • 67. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 67
  • 68. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 68 2006
  • 69. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 69
  • 70. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 70
  • 71. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 71
  • 72. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 72
  • 73. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 73
  • 74. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 74
  • 75. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 75
  • 76. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 76
  • 77. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 77
  • 78. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 78
  • 79. CASE STUDY Diagnostic Modeling of Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Failure Modes Bayesian Networks (Probabilistic Causal Networks)
  • 80. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 80 Reactive Ion Etching (RIE) Equipment
  • 81. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 81 Modeling Equipment Failure Modes via Probabilistic Causal Bayesian Networks
  • 82. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 82 Fishbone Diagram for Faults in RIE Device
  • 83. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 83 Proposed Three-Layer Design of Bayesian Network Failure Model RIE Etch Equipment Failure Diagnosis
  • 84. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 84 Full Bayesian Network Model for the Fault Diagnosis in RIE Etch Equipment Root Causes Modules Data Parameters RIE Etch Equipment Failure Diagnosis
  • 85. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 85 Implemented (Reduced) Bayesian Causal Network – RIE Etcher Failure Diagnosis
  • 86. 21. Sept 2018 Copyright 2018 Burton H. Lee 86 Other Examples of Bayesian Network Models of Manufacturing Equipment Failure Diagnosis
  • 87. VIELEN DANK !! Dr. Burton H. Lee PhD MBA Mechanical Engineering Dept Center for Design Research Stanford University Burton.Lee@innovarium.net Silicon Valley, CA 87
  • 88. Working in Silicon Valley, Europe, Latin America and Washington DC • Senior financial, technical and strategy advisory services for global technology companies • Professional Services – Technology growth companies and startups • Artificial Intelligence strategy, products/services, business models and technical architectures • Digitalisation culture change, management, business processes, business model creation, new services • Interim CXO and Advisory Board roles • Expert guidance & decision-making at the interface between market/customers, technology and finance • Business plan preparation/research/review; • Executive training, coaching and mentoring of CEOs, board members and other CXO-level managers – Angel, venture capital and private equity Investors • Fund strategy, team selection and market positioning • Due diligence: technical, financial, strategy and business models – Public and non-profit R&D laboratories • Technology transfer & partnerships; venturing and spin-out of companies; strategy and business development; grant applications – Research universities • Innovation-related models, policies and practices • Technology transfer and licensing; industry partnerships and relations; development and strategy; grant applications – National and regional government agencies • Innovation policy formulation, analysis and review; cluster development strategy; economic impact studies • Science & technology policy formulation, analysis & review: space, aviation, nanotechnology, software/AI/robotics, manufacturing • Selected recent clients – German family-owned Mittelstand enterprises – automotive supplier industry – US/European technology startup companies – alternative energy, robotics/AI, software, Internet, nanotech – Venture and private equity funds – aerospace, nanotechnology, ICT, computing, advanced materials, clean tech – Office of the Prime Minister, Ireland; European Commission; National Science Foundation; NASA, National Academies • Dr. Burton Lee PhD MBA, Managing Director – Contact: Burton.Lee@innovarium.net Based in Palo Alto, CA near Stanford University – Bio/References: LinkedIn Profile – Adjunct Professor, European Entrepreneurship & Innovation, Mechanical Engineering, Stanford University 88