Work in Progress:
A Retrospective on the NBER
Working Paper Series
Claudia Goldin
Harvard University
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
NBER Working Papers: Ann...
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
7 original programs
DAE,...
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
AG
1986
HC
1990
AP, CF, ...
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
AG
1986
HC
1990
AP, CF, ...
y = 0.2307x3 - 1367x2 + 3E+06x - 2E+09
R² = 0.9997
0
2500
5000
7500
10000
12500
15000
17500
20000
22500
1975 1980 1985 199...
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005...
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
NumProg PE PE with progs to 1993
NBER Programs per PE Wor...
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Number of Authors
Authors per Wor...
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Number of Authors PE LS EFG
Autho...
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1 2 3 4 5
Fraction NBER Authors per Working Paper
by Number of Authors: 2013
Note:...
Work in Progress:
A Retrospective on the NBER
Working Paper Series
Claudia Goldin
Harvard University
The NBER Working Paper Series at 20,000 - Claudia Goldin
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The NBER Working Paper Series at 20,000 - Claudia Goldin

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The NBER Working Paper Series at 20,000 - Claudia Goldin

  1. 1. Work in Progress: A Retrospective on the NBER Working Paper Series Claudia Goldin Harvard University
  2. 2. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 NBER Working Papers: Annual Flow 1978 to 2013
  3. 3. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 7 original programs DAE, EFG, ITI, LS, ME, PR, PE; 1978 NBER Working Papers: Annual Flow 1978 to 2013
  4. 4. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 AG 1986 HC 1990 AP, CF, IO 1991 7 original programs DAE, EFG, ITI, LS, ME, PR, PE; 1978 NBER Working Papers: Annual Flow 1978 to 2013
  5. 5. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 AG 1986 HC 1990 AP, CF, IO 1991 IFM 1993 CH 1996 ED 2001 POL 2006 EEE 2007 DEV 2012 HE 2001? LE 2002? > 1,300 RAs & FRFs 7 original programs DAE, EFG, ITI, LS, ME, PR, PE; 1978 NBER Working Papers: Annual Flow 1978 to 2013
  6. 6. y = 0.2307x3 - 1367x2 + 3E+06x - 2E+09 R² = 0.9997 0 2500 5000 7500 10000 12500 15000 17500 20000 22500 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 NBER Working Papers: Cumulative 1978 to 2013 According to this “model,” the 50,000th NBER Working Paper will appear in January 2030. But will it? Will the “model” change?
  7. 7. 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Mean Number of Programs Fraction with > 1 Program Mean Number of Programs Fraction with > 1 program NBER Programs per Working Paper: 1978 to 2014
  8. 8. 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 NumProg PE PE with progs to 1993 NBER Programs per PE Working Paper: 1978 to 2014 Only programs existing by 1993 The NBER Working Paper series has become less specialized and more varied over time.
  9. 9. 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Number of Authors Authors per Working Paper: 1978 to 2014
  10. 10. 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Number of Authors PE LS EFG Authors per Working Paper: 1978 to 2014
  11. 11. 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1 2 3 4 5 Fraction NBER Authors per Working Paper by Number of Authors: 2013 Note: Conditional on at least one NBER author per working paper (mean = 60.4%).
  12. 12. Work in Progress: A Retrospective on the NBER Working Paper Series Claudia Goldin Harvard University

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