HIGHLIGHTS
Publicly traded Apparel, Accessories and Footwear (“AAF”) companies are trading near peak valuations, with EBITDA multiples averaging 12.1x.
Large cap diversified AAF stocks have performed the best over the past 12 months, gaining 30% compared to 17% for the S&P 500.
The M&A market is booming: overall U.S. middle market M&A volume was up 23% in Q2 from 2013; total transaction value was up 40% in the same period.
AAF deal activity is also up sharply, increasing 28% year to date, compared to 2013.
4. 100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
4
Consumer Environment Improves, Still-cautious Consumer
• Consumer Confidence (July reached 90.9) soared to highs last seen in
late 2007, on strengthening job and home markets, strong stock
market performance
• Labor markets remain stable, with steady job creation (1.6 mm jobs
added from January through July), and jobless rate hitting 6.2% in July,
improving from 6.6% in January. However, continued shrinkage in the
labor force remains a concern; labor force participation rate has
tumbled to 62.9% (July reading), its worst level since 1978
• Improvements in employment and consumer macro have been
countered by loom of inflation (high gas prices, coupled with rising
food costs), putting pressure on shoppers to curb spending
• Competition for share of consumer wallet has intensified from
increased durables (auto, electronics, home) and health category
spending
• Retail environment remains challenging, due in part to an apathetic
consumer, lack of fashion newness, an elevated promotional retail
environment, weather conditions; Q4 ’13 and Q1 ’14 comparable-store
sales performance for a median of selected chain retailers posted
declines of 3 to 4%
• Apparel retailer sales are expected to grow 3 to 4% in 2014, boosted
by product innovation/differentiation, new fashion trends,
promotions; average spending for Back-to-School is projected to be
up 5% to $669 in 2014, according to a NRF trade survey
• Key industry trends include (i) attractive price-value propositions /
differentiated products, (ii) omni-channel, (iii) wholesale brands
selling direct-to-consumer, (iv) international growth, (v) consumer
focus on active/healthy lifestyles, and (vi) private label lines for mass
retailers
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, CapitalIQ, and Moss Adams Capital estimates.
APPAREL, ACCESSORIES &
FOOTWEAR
Consumer Spending Indicators
Same-Store Sales Growth – Chain Retailers
Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
Abercrombie & Fitch -15.0% -10.0% -14.0% -8.0% -4.0%
Aeropostale -14.0% -15.0% -15.0% -15.0% -13.0%
American Apparel 8.0% 7.0% 2.0% -3.0% -7.0%
American Eagle -5.0% -7.0% -7.0% -7.0% -10.0%
Buckle 1.2% 3.2% -0.5% -2.8% -0.9%
DSW -2.4% 4.4% -0.7% 0.0% -3.7%
Gap 2.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% -1.0%
Genesco -4.0% -2.0% -1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Guess? North America -9.8% -2.0% -5.0% -4.4% -3.8%
Tilly's 1.1% -0.5% -2.4% -4.9% -6.8%
Urban Outfitters 9.0% 8.5% 7.1% 1.0% 0.0%
Wet Seal -2.9% 3.7% 0.8% -16.5% -16.9%
Zumiez -0.7% 0.9% 1.5% -2.2% 1.8%
Median -2.4% 0.9% -0.7% -3.0% -3.8%
Industry Update
Apparel
Retailer Sales
y/y growth
Unemployment
Rate
Consumer
Confidence
(right-axis)
0
-12%
5. 5
Diversified – Large Cap, Performance Segments Higher
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Note: The indices in the chart above are composed of the public companies included on slide 7 and 8.
APPAREL, ACCESSORIES &
FOOTWEAR
-10%
Diversified -
Large Cap
+30%
Performance
+17%
S&P 500
+17%
Diversified -
Mid/Small Cap
+9%
Aspirational
+4%
Source: CapitalIQ.
1 Year Performance: Apparel, Accessories and Footwear vs. S&P
6. 6
Apparel Industry Sales Outlook Higher than Market
• The outlook for companies in Apparel, Accessories and Footwear,
is positive, with 6% sales and 14% EBITDA growth projected for a
median of selected apparel companies over the next 12 months
• In comparison, companies in the S&P 500 are projected to have
sales and EBITDA growth of 5% and 9%, respectively, for the next
12 months
2.7%
5.8%
Performance
Aspirational
Diversified -
Large Cap
Diversified -
Mid/Small
Cap
APPAREL, ACCESSORIES &
FOOTWEAR
9.0%
21.8%
18.5%
9.1%
26.7%
Performance
Aspirational
Diversified -
Large Cap
Diversified -
Mid/Small Cap
S&P 500
5.0%
7.4%
10.2%
S&P 500
Source: CapitalIQ.
• Apparel, Accessories and Footwear companies, on a trailing
EBITDA valuation basis, are trading at the high range of historical
valuation levels
• Since 2011, Apparel, Accessories and Footwear companies have
largely traded at a premium to the overall market, on a EBITDA
multiple basis
Next 12 Months: Estimated Growth Public Market Valuations
Apparel and
Footwear
12.1x
S&P 500
10.9x
16.0x
14.0x
12.0x
10.0x
8.0x
6.0x
4.0x
2.0x
0.0x
EV / TTM EBITDA
Sales EBITDA
Note: Apparel, Accessories and Footwear is composed of the public companies included on slide 7 and 8.