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Apparel, Accessories, and Footwear 
M A R K E T M O N I T O R | F A L L 2 0 1 4 
APPAREL, ACCESSORIES & 
FOOTWEAR
2 
Representative Apparel, Accessories & Footwear Transactions 
APPAREL, ACCESSORIES & 
FOOTWEAR
3 
Contents 
Industry Update 
Public Stock Performance & Valuations 
M&A Activity & Valuations 
Moss Adams Overview 
Firm Contacts 
APPAREL, ACCESSORIES & 
FOOTWEAR 
4 
5 
9 
12 
14
100 
90 
80 
70 
60 
50 
40 
30 
20 
10 
4 
Consumer Environment Improves, Still-cautious Consumer 
• Consumer Confidence (July reached 90.9) soared to highs last seen in 
late 2007, on strengthening job and home markets, strong stock 
market performance 
• Labor markets remain stable, with steady job creation (1.6 mm jobs 
added from January through July), and jobless rate hitting 6.2% in July, 
improving from 6.6% in January. However, continued shrinkage in the 
labor force remains a concern; labor force participation rate has 
tumbled to 62.9% (July reading), its worst level since 1978 
• Improvements in employment and consumer macro have been 
countered by loom of inflation (high gas prices, coupled with rising 
food costs), putting pressure on shoppers to curb spending 
• Competition for share of consumer wallet has intensified from 
increased durables (auto, electronics, home) and health category 
spending 
• Retail environment remains challenging, due in part to an apathetic 
consumer, lack of fashion newness, an elevated promotional retail 
environment, weather conditions; Q4 ’13 and Q1 ’14 comparable-store 
sales performance for a median of selected chain retailers posted 
declines of 3 to 4% 
• Apparel retailer sales are expected to grow 3 to 4% in 2014, boosted 
by product innovation/differentiation, new fashion trends, 
promotions; average spending for Back-to-School is projected to be 
up 5% to $669 in 2014, according to a NRF trade survey 
• Key industry trends include (i) attractive price-value propositions / 
differentiated products, (ii) omni-channel, (iii) wholesale brands 
selling direct-to-consumer, (iv) international growth, (v) consumer 
focus on active/healthy lifestyles, and (vi) private label lines for mass 
retailers 
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, CapitalIQ, and Moss Adams Capital estimates. 
APPAREL, ACCESSORIES & 
FOOTWEAR 
Consumer Spending Indicators 
Same-Store Sales Growth – Chain Retailers 
Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 
12% 
10% 
8% 
6% 
4% 
2% 
0% 
-2% 
-4% 
-6% 
-8% 
-10% 
Abercrombie & Fitch -15.0% -10.0% -14.0% -8.0% -4.0% 
Aeropostale -14.0% -15.0% -15.0% -15.0% -13.0% 
American Apparel 8.0% 7.0% 2.0% -3.0% -7.0% 
American Eagle -5.0% -7.0% -7.0% -7.0% -10.0% 
Buckle 1.2% 3.2% -0.5% -2.8% -0.9% 
DSW -2.4% 4.4% -0.7% 0.0% -3.7% 
Gap 2.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% -1.0% 
Genesco -4.0% -2.0% -1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 
Guess? North America -9.8% -2.0% -5.0% -4.4% -3.8% 
Tilly's 1.1% -0.5% -2.4% -4.9% -6.8% 
Urban Outfitters 9.0% 8.5% 7.1% 1.0% 0.0% 
Wet Seal -2.9% 3.7% 0.8% -16.5% -16.9% 
Zumiez -0.7% 0.9% 1.5% -2.2% 1.8% 
Median -2.4% 0.9% -0.7% -3.0% -3.8% 
Industry Update 
Apparel 
Retailer Sales 
y/y growth 
Unemployment 
Rate 
Consumer 
Confidence 
(right-axis) 
0 
-12%
5 
Diversified – Large Cap, Performance Segments Higher 
35% 
30% 
25% 
20% 
15% 
10% 
5% 
0% 
-5% 
Note: The indices in the chart above are composed of the public companies included on slide 7 and 8. 
APPAREL, ACCESSORIES & 
FOOTWEAR 
-10% 
Diversified - 
Large Cap 
+30% 
Performance 
+17% 
S&P 500 
+17% 
Diversified - 
Mid/Small Cap 
+9% 
Aspirational 
+4% 
Source: CapitalIQ. 
1 Year Performance: Apparel, Accessories and Footwear vs. S&P
6 
Apparel Industry Sales Outlook Higher than Market 
• The outlook for companies in Apparel, Accessories and Footwear, 
is positive, with 6% sales and 14% EBITDA growth projected for a 
median of selected apparel companies over the next 12 months 
• In comparison, companies in the S&P 500 are projected to have 
sales and EBITDA growth of 5% and 9%, respectively, for the next 
12 months 
2.7% 
5.8% 
Performance 
Aspirational 
Diversified - 
Large Cap 
Diversified - 
Mid/Small 
Cap 
APPAREL, ACCESSORIES & 
FOOTWEAR 
9.0% 
21.8% 
18.5% 
9.1% 
26.7% 
Performance 
Aspirational 
Diversified - 
Large Cap 
Diversified - 
Mid/Small Cap 
S&P 500 
5.0% 
7.4% 
10.2% 
S&P 500 
Source: CapitalIQ. 
• Apparel, Accessories and Footwear companies, on a trailing 
EBITDA valuation basis, are trading at the high range of historical 
valuation levels 
• Since 2011, Apparel, Accessories and Footwear companies have 
largely traded at a premium to the overall market, on a EBITDA 
multiple basis 
Next 12 Months: Estimated Growth Public Market Valuations 
Apparel and 
Footwear 
12.1x 
S&P 500 
10.9x 
16.0x 
14.0x 
12.0x 
10.0x 
8.0x 
6.0x 
4.0x 
2.0x 
0.0x 
EV / TTM EBITDA 
Sales EBITDA 
Note: Apparel, Accessories and Footwear is composed of the public companies included on slide 7 and 8.
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Apparel and footwear-market-monitor-fall-2014

  • 1. 1 Apparel, Accessories, and Footwear M A R K E T M O N I T O R | F A L L 2 0 1 4 APPAREL, ACCESSORIES & FOOTWEAR
  • 2. 2 Representative Apparel, Accessories & Footwear Transactions APPAREL, ACCESSORIES & FOOTWEAR
  • 3. 3 Contents Industry Update Public Stock Performance & Valuations M&A Activity & Valuations Moss Adams Overview Firm Contacts APPAREL, ACCESSORIES & FOOTWEAR 4 5 9 12 14
  • 4. 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 4 Consumer Environment Improves, Still-cautious Consumer • Consumer Confidence (July reached 90.9) soared to highs last seen in late 2007, on strengthening job and home markets, strong stock market performance • Labor markets remain stable, with steady job creation (1.6 mm jobs added from January through July), and jobless rate hitting 6.2% in July, improving from 6.6% in January. However, continued shrinkage in the labor force remains a concern; labor force participation rate has tumbled to 62.9% (July reading), its worst level since 1978 • Improvements in employment and consumer macro have been countered by loom of inflation (high gas prices, coupled with rising food costs), putting pressure on shoppers to curb spending • Competition for share of consumer wallet has intensified from increased durables (auto, electronics, home) and health category spending • Retail environment remains challenging, due in part to an apathetic consumer, lack of fashion newness, an elevated promotional retail environment, weather conditions; Q4 ’13 and Q1 ’14 comparable-store sales performance for a median of selected chain retailers posted declines of 3 to 4% • Apparel retailer sales are expected to grow 3 to 4% in 2014, boosted by product innovation/differentiation, new fashion trends, promotions; average spending for Back-to-School is projected to be up 5% to $669 in 2014, according to a NRF trade survey • Key industry trends include (i) attractive price-value propositions / differentiated products, (ii) omni-channel, (iii) wholesale brands selling direct-to-consumer, (iv) international growth, (v) consumer focus on active/healthy lifestyles, and (vi) private label lines for mass retailers Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, CapitalIQ, and Moss Adams Capital estimates. APPAREL, ACCESSORIES & FOOTWEAR Consumer Spending Indicators Same-Store Sales Growth – Chain Retailers Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Abercrombie & Fitch -15.0% -10.0% -14.0% -8.0% -4.0% Aeropostale -14.0% -15.0% -15.0% -15.0% -13.0% American Apparel 8.0% 7.0% 2.0% -3.0% -7.0% American Eagle -5.0% -7.0% -7.0% -7.0% -10.0% Buckle 1.2% 3.2% -0.5% -2.8% -0.9% DSW -2.4% 4.4% -0.7% 0.0% -3.7% Gap 2.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% -1.0% Genesco -4.0% -2.0% -1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Guess? North America -9.8% -2.0% -5.0% -4.4% -3.8% Tilly's 1.1% -0.5% -2.4% -4.9% -6.8% Urban Outfitters 9.0% 8.5% 7.1% 1.0% 0.0% Wet Seal -2.9% 3.7% 0.8% -16.5% -16.9% Zumiez -0.7% 0.9% 1.5% -2.2% 1.8% Median -2.4% 0.9% -0.7% -3.0% -3.8% Industry Update Apparel Retailer Sales y/y growth Unemployment Rate Consumer Confidence (right-axis) 0 -12%
  • 5. 5 Diversified – Large Cap, Performance Segments Higher 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Note: The indices in the chart above are composed of the public companies included on slide 7 and 8. APPAREL, ACCESSORIES & FOOTWEAR -10% Diversified - Large Cap +30% Performance +17% S&P 500 +17% Diversified - Mid/Small Cap +9% Aspirational +4% Source: CapitalIQ. 1 Year Performance: Apparel, Accessories and Footwear vs. S&P
  • 6. 6 Apparel Industry Sales Outlook Higher than Market • The outlook for companies in Apparel, Accessories and Footwear, is positive, with 6% sales and 14% EBITDA growth projected for a median of selected apparel companies over the next 12 months • In comparison, companies in the S&P 500 are projected to have sales and EBITDA growth of 5% and 9%, respectively, for the next 12 months 2.7% 5.8% Performance Aspirational Diversified - Large Cap Diversified - Mid/Small Cap APPAREL, ACCESSORIES & FOOTWEAR 9.0% 21.8% 18.5% 9.1% 26.7% Performance Aspirational Diversified - Large Cap Diversified - Mid/Small Cap S&P 500 5.0% 7.4% 10.2% S&P 500 Source: CapitalIQ. • Apparel, Accessories and Footwear companies, on a trailing EBITDA valuation basis, are trading at the high range of historical valuation levels • Since 2011, Apparel, Accessories and Footwear companies have largely traded at a premium to the overall market, on a EBITDA multiple basis Next 12 Months: Estimated Growth Public Market Valuations Apparel and Footwear 12.1x S&P 500 10.9x 16.0x 14.0x 12.0x 10.0x 8.0x 6.0x 4.0x 2.0x 0.0x EV / TTM EBITDA Sales EBITDA Note: Apparel, Accessories and Footwear is composed of the public companies included on slide 7 and 8.
  • 7. CLIKE HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FULL PRESENTATION