October 8, 2010<br />ModellingConsumerBehaviour in AirportSelection<br />A System Dynamics perspective on the Dutch (and G...
October 8, 2010<br />Contents<br />1<br />Introduction & ProblemDescription<br />Research Questions & Methodology<br />Mod...
October 8, 2010<br />3<br />12 3<br />
October 8, 2010<br />Introduction<br />4<br /><ul><li>Ticket tax was introduced on the 1st of July 2008
Abolished after 1 year
The Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis (KiM) initiated an ex-post analysis in January 2010
Specific interest in behavioural aspects</li></li></ul><li>October 8, 2010<br />Influence of boundedrationality<br />Incom...
October 8, 2010<br />Research Questions<br />Whichmethod is suitable to model consumerbehaviour and airportcompetition?<br...
October 8, 2010<br />Methodology<br />Literature study/interviews<br />How decisions are made?<br />What determines airpor...
October 8, 2010<br />8<br />1 2 3<br />
October 8, 2010<br />Modelling MethodComparison of Modelling Methods<br />
October 8, 2010<br />Modelling MethodSystem Dynamics<br />System dynamics (SD) is selected because:<br />Matches the requi...
    Previous studies
    Airport statistics
    KiM Airport Choice Survey 2010</li></ul>10<br />
October 8, 2010<br />Overview of the ModelSelection of airports<br />3 Airports selected for case study:<br />Eindhoven<br...
October 8, 2010<br />Overview of the ModelTotal system (simplified)<br />12<br />Demand<br />Airlines<br />Consumers<br />...
October 8, 2010<br />Overview of the ModelConsumers<br />3 pieces of information required to make a decision:<br />Prefere...
October 8, 2010<br />Overview of the ModelAirlines<br />Optimize fleet utilization by:<br />Adding flights in case of high...
October 8, 2010<br />15<br />1 2 3<br />
October 8, 2010<br />ResultsComparison with Empirical data<br />Growth Eindhoven compared to same month last year<br />80<...
October 8, 2010<br />ResultsEffect of marketing<br />17<br />Awareness of Dutch people of Weeze<br />% of  people aware<br...
October 8, 2010<br />ResultsInfluence of Awareness<br />18<br />Dutch people going to Weeze<br />% of  Dutch<br />Tax<br /...
October 8, 2010<br />Conclusions<br />SD is a suitable method but has limitations<br />Transfer of information by marketin...
October 8, 2010<br />Further ResearchEffects of the German ticket tax<br />Somepreliminaryconclusionsbasedon the model:<br...
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Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin

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Presentation at the Infraday conference in Berlin 2010. Briefly wraps up the research on both Dutch and German airline ticket taxation

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  • Start with introducing:Welcome for comingMyselfThe reason we are here is to present the result of the research to obtain the degree of master of scienceAsk the audience first if they knew about the taxSecond if they know about this german airport weeze
  • Introduce the three parts
  • Lower curve: Eindhoven users starting to choose for weeze, rapid increase when implemented and rapid decrease when abolished. However, awareness decreases the speed of decline. Shows the difference in speed between mechanisms of learning (direct experience and wom)
  • Dutch PeoplechoosingWeezefrom the NetherlandsGermanPeoplechoosing Eindhoven fromGermany3 cases, No tax, justdutch, Dutch and afterGerman
  • Fraction of Dutch Weeze Leisure travelersreturning to Eindhoven in 3 casesJust dutchtaxDutch and afterGermandtaxDutch and afterGermand and thenreimplementation of Dutch tax in 2012
  • Fraction of Dutch choosing Charleroi in three casesJust Dutch taxDutch and GermantaxDutch and German and reimplementation Dutch tax
  • Steverink Infra day 2010 Berlin

    1. 1. October 8, 2010<br />ModellingConsumerBehaviour in AirportSelection<br />A System Dynamics perspective on the Dutch (and German) ticket tax<br />Bart Steverink – bart@bsoms.com<br />INFRAday 2010, Berlin<br />The Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis (KiM)<br />Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management<br />
    2. 2. October 8, 2010<br />Contents<br />1<br />Introduction & ProblemDescription<br />Research Questions & Methodology<br />ModellingMethod<br />Overview of the Model<br />Results<br />Conclusions<br />Further Research<br />2<br />3<br />2<br />
    3. 3. October 8, 2010<br />3<br />12 3<br />
    4. 4. October 8, 2010<br />Introduction<br />4<br /><ul><li>Ticket tax was introduced on the 1st of July 2008
    5. 5. Abolished after 1 year
    6. 6. The Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis (KiM) initiated an ex-post analysis in January 2010
    7. 7. Specific interest in behavioural aspects</li></li></ul><li>October 8, 2010<br />Influence of boundedrationality<br />Incomplete information<br />Habitualbehaviour<br />Current analyses assume full rationality (orimplicitelyincorporateboundedrationality)<br />We don’tknowhow and howstrongly the tax has affectedconsumerchoice<br />ProblemDescription<br />5<br />
    8. 8. October 8, 2010<br />Research Questions<br />Whichmethod is suitable to model consumerbehaviour and airportcompetition?<br />Which factors and mechanismsinfluenced the redistribution of passengers as a result of the ticket tax?<br />Ifthere is a structuralchange, whatcanbedone to influencethischange?<br />6<br />Method<br />Mechanism<br />Policy<br />
    9. 9. October 8, 2010<br />Methodology<br />Literature study/interviews<br />How decisions are made?<br />What determines airport quality?<br />How do people obtain information?<br />Computer Simulation Model<br />Reduce complexity<br />How do the different concepts from literature interact over time?<br />How can the choice be influenced?<br />7<br />
    10. 10. October 8, 2010<br />8<br />1 2 3<br />
    11. 11. October 8, 2010<br />Modelling MethodComparison of Modelling Methods<br />
    12. 12. October 8, 2010<br />Modelling MethodSystem Dynamics<br />System dynamics (SD) is selected because:<br />Matches the requirements for solving the problem<br />Familiarity with the method<br />Vensim DSS software used<br />Data collected from:<br /><ul><li> Interviews
    13. 13. Previous studies
    14. 14. Airport statistics
    15. 15. KiM Airport Choice Survey 2010</li></ul>10<br />
    16. 16. October 8, 2010<br />Overview of the ModelSelection of airports<br />3 Airports selected for case study:<br />Eindhoven<br />Weeze<br />(Brussels South) Charleroi<br />Because:<br />Overlapping catchment areas<br />Very similar type of services<br />“Footloose” character of low-cost carriers<br />Target market relatively price sensitive<br />11<br />
    17. 17. October 8, 2010<br />Overview of the ModelTotal system (simplified)<br />12<br />Demand<br />Airlines<br />Consumers<br />Utility perception<br />Price<br />Optimal use of fleet<br />Information transfer<br />Awareness<br /># of flights<br />Supply<br />
    18. 18. October 8, 2010<br />Overview of the ModelConsumers<br />3 pieces of information required to make a decision:<br />Preferences<br />Alternatives (airports)<br />Attributes of alternatives: <br />Price airline ticket<br />Number of flights<br />Access time<br />Learning by using, talking and marketing<br />Forgetting as a result of lack of exposure<br />13<br />
    19. 19. October 8, 2010<br />Overview of the ModelAirlines<br />Optimize fleet utilization by:<br />Adding flights in case of high demand<br />Reducing flights when demand is low<br />Adjusting price according to demand<br />14<br />
    20. 20. October 8, 2010<br />15<br />1 2 3<br />
    21. 21. October 8, 2010<br />ResultsComparison with Empirical data<br />Growth Eindhoven compared to same month last year<br />80<br />70<br />60<br />50<br />40<br />30<br />20<br />10<br />0<br />-10<br />-20<br />Tax<br />%<br />real<br />model<br />16<br />
    22. 22. October 8, 2010<br />ResultsEffect of marketing<br />17<br />Awareness of Dutch people of Weeze<br />% of people aware<br />Boost<br />Normal<br />
    23. 23. October 8, 2010<br />ResultsInfluence of Awareness<br />18<br />Dutch people going to Weeze<br />% of Dutch<br />Tax<br />No tax<br />
    24. 24. October 8, 2010<br />Conclusions<br />SD is a suitable method but has limitations<br />Transfer of information by marketing, talking to friends and neighbours and by direct experience.<br />A structural effect of the tax is seen if:<br />The supply can grow fast enough<br />Enough attention is generated<br />Policies that influence information availability are effective<br />19<br />Method<br />Mechanism<br />Policy<br />
    25. 25. October 8, 2010<br />Further ResearchEffects of the German ticket tax<br />Somepreliminaryconclusionsbasedon the model:<br />Dutch passengerswill return to Dutch airports, reactionfromGermanpassengers low, due to low awareness and threshold of flightsupply<br />Re-implementation of Dutch taxreducesnumber of Dutch passengersreturning to NL and increasestraffic at Belgianairports<br />Opportunitiesfornear border airportslikeMaastricht-Aachen and (maybe) Twente<br />20<br />
    26. 26. Further ResearchEffects of the German ticket tax<br />October 8, 2010<br />21<br />Percentage of population (NL and D) choosingairport<br />Weeze (from NL)<br />Eindhoven (from D)<br />
    27. 27. Further ResearchEffects of the German ticket tax<br />October 8, 2010<br />22<br />Percentage of Dutch leisurepassengersreturning to EHN<br />NL and GermanTax<br />Re-impl. Dutch Tax<br />
    28. 28. Further ResearchEffects of the German ticket tax<br />October 8, 2010<br />23<br />Percentage of Dutch choosing Charleroi<br />Re-impl. Dutch Tax<br />NL and GermanTax<br />
    29. 29. October 8, 2010<br />¿¿Questions?? <br />24<br />For a digital copy of the thesis work:<br /><ul><li>Sendan email to:</li></ul>bart@bsoms.com<br /><ul><li>Or, visit:</li></ul>www.bsoms.com<br />
    30. 30. October 8, 2010<br />Further Research<br />Twodirectionsforfurther research:<br />Simplifystructure and expandboundaries<br />More numericalprecision<br />25<br />

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