Try to make a referece to the presenation by Alan Graham, the three types of hypothesis that should be tested.Problem, system and recommendations
Utility and awarenessThree mechanisms:Learning by experienceWord-of-mouthMarketingDifferent characteristicsDistinction between perceived values and actual valuesChoice is made based on perceived values
Conditioned the utility function with awareness and capacityVp sub ij is the deterministic part of the utility as perceived by groupi of airport j/kC is the capacity constraining factor and A is the awarenessBoth can eliminate the airport to be choosen. There is obviously a problem with the capacity factor, it should limit the number of people going not halt it to zero if there is no more capacity. This should actually be equal to the current number of departures at full capacity.
Airlines are reactive organizations in the model Demand driven marketHave partial control over price and control over number of flights offeredFor simplification only one airline is considered with an identical strategy on all airports
Explain the variations in the empirical data. Unique short term events that had causes that lie outside of the model boundaries. For example the renovation of the runway at Eindhoven airport causes a significant amount of traffic to be temporarily diverted to Weeze airport in Germany. The model is intended to produce average results. The difference in speed of awareness gain and decay can indeed not be seen in this figure. This can be observed in another figure that captures awareness, slide 12.Recovery of the model is lagging behind empirical recovery. Most likely cause for this is that the model does not incorporate the anticipation of the tax to be abolished. Some airlines brokers offered a discount when it became know that the tax would be abolished soon.
Note the difference between brussels and weeze. Why does one start increasing and the other gets back to original levels?
Consumer Behaviour in Airport Selection, International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Washington DC 2011
The Dutch Taxation on Airline Tickets<br />understanding the dynamics of airport choice<br />Bart Steverink – email@example.com| Els van Daalen – firstname.lastname@example.org<br />Washington DC, July 26th, 2011<br />
Outline<br />Introduction to the problem<br />Overview of the model<br />Simulation results<br />Conclusion and discussion<br />
Introduction to the problem<br />Introduction of an additional taxation on all O&D flights departing from Dutch airports<br />Introduced in July 2008<br />Abolished one year later due to economic downturn and heavy resistance from the industry<br />Dutch airports experienced declining growth<br />Airports just across the borders experienced an additional share of Dutch passengers but did not see an equal decrease after the abolishment of the tax<br />
Context & Focus<br />The Netherlands institute for transport policy analysis initiates research on the effects of the flight tax (tickettaks) on airports, airlines and passengers<br />Focus of the SD contribution:<br />Find out about the factors and mechanisms that influence airport choice, why asymmetric?<br />Find out if the tax could have a structural effect on airport choice <br />Find out if the government or airlines and airports can influence airport choice<br />
Overview of the modelThe physical system<br />The Netherlands<br />Three airports<br />All serve mainly low-cost airlines and pax<br />Overlapping catchment areas<br />Belgium<br />Germany<br />
Overview of the modelThe simulation model<br />
Overview of the modelTransfer of information<br />
Overview of the modelDecision making<br />Multinomial logit equation to emulate choice based on utility and awareness<br />Outputs probability to choose specific airport<br />
Simulation resultsawareness development in The Netherlands<br />
Simulation resultsDevelopment of the perceived price<br />
Simulation resultsdevelopment of relative attractiveness of Eindhoven<br />
Simulation resultsequilibrium awareness<br />Media attention (social as well as commercial) boosts awareness to ‘artificial’ high level (above the normal equilibrium level)<br />And:<br />Increases speed at which perceived utility is updated<br />However a higher equilibrium awareness and hence market share is only sustained when the perceived utility is increased as well.<br />
Conclusions<br />Awareness plays a significant role in the development of an asymmetric response to the tax<br />The tax has a structural effect if at least two conditions are satisfied:<br />Airlines should respond quickly to changes in demand<br />Sufficient attention for the introduction of the tax in terms of media and marketing <br />Role of the government is to set the context for equal competition<br />
Discussion<br />Mass-media marketing is replaced by smart-marketing<br />Word-of-mouth through new (social) media and through digital social networks.<br />How does this new type of information diffusion work? <br />Which specific characteristics does it have that distinguishes it from ‘classic’ WoM?<br />How does this influence our airport choice?<br />And more broader:<br />How does this influence other information driven systems? <br />
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