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The Dutch Taxation on Airline Tickets<br />understanding the dynamics of airport choice<br />Bart Steverink – bart@bsoms.c...
Outline<br />Introduction to the problem<br />Overview of the model<br />Simulation results<br />Conclusion and discussion...
Introduction to the problem<br />Introduction of an additional taxation on all O&D flights departing from Dutch airports<b...
Context & Focus<br />The Netherlands institute for transport policy analysis initiates research on the effects of the flig...
Overview of the modelThe physical system<br />The Netherlands<br />Three airports<br />All serve mainly low-cost airlines ...
Overview of the modelThe simulation model<br />
Overview of the modelTransfer of information<br />
Overview of the modelDecision making<br />Multinomial logit equation to emulate choice based on utility and awareness<br /...
Overview of the modelAirline interaction<br />
Simulation resultsModel Fit<br />Emp.<br />Growth rate<br />Sim.<br />
Simulation resultsmodel fit passengers<br />
Simulation resultsawareness development in The Netherlands<br />
Simulation resultsDevelopment of the perceived price<br />
Simulation resultsdevelopment of relative attractiveness of Eindhoven<br />
Simulation resultsequilibrium awareness<br />Media attention (social as well as commercial) boosts awareness to ‘artificia...
Conclusions<br />Awareness plays a significant role in the development of an asymmetric response to the tax<br />The tax h...
Discussion<br />Mass-media marketing is replaced by smart-marketing<br />Word-of-mouth through new (social) media and thro...
Thank you for your attention<br />For my full thesis, surf to www.bsoms.com<br />Or,<br />Send me an email at bart@bsoms.c...
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Consumer Behaviour in Airport Selection, International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Washington DC 2011

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Consumer Behaviour in Airport Selection, International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Washington DC 2011

  1. 1. The Dutch Taxation on Airline Tickets<br />understanding the dynamics of airport choice<br />Bart Steverink – bart@bsoms.com| Els van Daalen – c.vandaalen@tudelft.nl<br />Washington DC, July 26th, 2011<br />
  2. 2. Outline<br />Introduction to the problem<br />Overview of the model<br />Simulation results<br />Conclusion and discussion<br />
  3. 3. Introduction to the problem<br />Introduction of an additional taxation on all O&D flights departing from Dutch airports<br />Introduced in July 2008<br />Abolished one year later due to economic downturn and heavy resistance from the industry<br />Dutch airports experienced declining growth<br />Airports just across the borders experienced an additional share of Dutch passengers but did not see an equal decrease after the abolishment of the tax<br />
  4. 4. Context & Focus<br />The Netherlands institute for transport policy analysis initiates research on the effects of the flight tax (tickettaks) on airports, airlines and passengers<br />Focus of the SD contribution:<br />Find out about the factors and mechanisms that influence airport choice, why asymmetric?<br />Find out if the tax could have a structural effect on airport choice <br />Find out if the government or airlines and airports can influence airport choice<br />
  5. 5. Overview of the modelThe physical system<br />The Netherlands<br />Three airports<br />All serve mainly low-cost airlines and pax<br />Overlapping catchment areas<br />Belgium<br />Germany<br />
  6. 6. Overview of the modelThe simulation model<br />
  7. 7. Overview of the modelTransfer of information<br />
  8. 8. Overview of the modelDecision making<br />Multinomial logit equation to emulate choice based on utility and awareness<br />Outputs probability to choose specific airport<br />
  9. 9. Overview of the modelAirline interaction<br />
  10. 10. Simulation resultsModel Fit<br />Emp.<br />Growth rate<br />Sim.<br />
  11. 11. Simulation resultsmodel fit passengers<br />
  12. 12. Simulation resultsawareness development in The Netherlands<br />
  13. 13. Simulation resultsDevelopment of the perceived price<br />
  14. 14. Simulation resultsdevelopment of relative attractiveness of Eindhoven<br />
  15. 15. Simulation resultsequilibrium awareness<br />Media attention (social as well as commercial) boosts awareness to ‘artificial’ high level (above the normal equilibrium level)<br />And:<br />Increases speed at which perceived utility is updated<br />However a higher equilibrium awareness and hence market share is only sustained when the perceived utility is increased as well.<br />
  16. 16. Conclusions<br />Awareness plays a significant role in the development of an asymmetric response to the tax<br />The tax has a structural effect if at least two conditions are satisfied:<br />Airlines should respond quickly to changes in demand<br />Sufficient attention for the introduction of the tax in terms of media and marketing <br />Role of the government is to set the context for equal competition<br />
  17. 17. Discussion<br />Mass-media marketing is replaced by smart-marketing<br />Word-of-mouth through new (social) media and through digital social networks.<br />How does this new type of information diffusion work? <br />Which specific characteristics does it have that distinguishes it from ‘classic’ WoM?<br />How does this influence our airport choice?<br />And more broader:<br />How does this influence other information driven systems? <br />
  18. 18. Thank you for your attention<br />For my full thesis, surf to www.bsoms.com<br />Or,<br />Send me an email at bart@bsoms.com<br />

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