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  1. 1. Using ICT to “adapt” rather than “mitigate” Global Warming Bill St. Arnaud Unless otherwise noted all material in this slide deck may be reproduced, modified or distributed without prior permission of the author
  2. 2. Theme of this talk• We have already lost the battle to save the planet from extreme climate change. Rather than focusing on reducing energy consumption, (Mitigation) we now need to focus on surviving climate change (Adaptation)• Explosion of data and energy consumption by computers and networks is contributing to energy demand and CO2 emissions• Designing solutions to address adaptation will at the same time also address mitigation but in addition provide many significant business opportunities – Think of solutions that use no carbon and not connected to the electrical grid• Use the Internet and IT, in combination with electric vehicle to build the “Energy Internet”
  3. 3. Although there is less news coverageglobal warming has not disappeared
  4. 4. Half of US experienced record droughts or deluges in 2011 2010 warmest year ever – we are only at the start of the curve of the hockey stick. The worst is yet to come
  5. 5. Climate Change is not reversible• Climate Change is not like acid rain, water management or ozone destruction where environment will quickly return to normal once source of pollution is removed• GHG emissions will stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years and continue to accumulate Weaver et al., GRL (2007)• Planet will continue to warm up All we hope to achieve is to even if we drastically reduce slow down the rapid rate of emissions climate change
  6. 6. Climate tipping points• USGS report finds that future climate shifts have been underestimated and warns of debilitating abrupt shift in climate that would be devastating.• Tipping elements in the Earths climate - National Academies of Science – “Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change. Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change. “
  7. 7. Blame it on Canada How warming in the Arctic affects weather in Texas and Europe• Warming Arctic slowing down jet stream – There’s been a 20 percent drop in the zonal wind speeds.• As get stream slows down, it leads to those bigger, long lived kinks in the jet stream. – That amplification is associated with persistent weather patterns that lead to “extremes” like drought, flooding and heat waves.• Those slow-moving, persistent waves of weather energy may have played a role in the big snows that hammered Europe this winters, as well as the extreme drought that hit South West US• global-warming-revenge-of-the-atmosphere/ 7
  8. 8. Future Droughts• Palmer Drought SeverityIndex, or PDSI.• The most severe drought inrecent history, in the Sahel regionof western Africa in the 1970s, hada PDSI of -3 or -4.• By 2030 Western USA could see-4 to -6. Drought in Texas clearlycaused by global warming:• By 2100 some parts of the U.S.and Latin America could see -8 to -10 PDSI, while Mediterraneanareas could see drought in the -15 -20 range. s-environment/
  9. 9. Dramatic changes in precipitation • Every continent has suffered record rainfalls • Rains submerged one-fifth of Pakistan, a thousand-year deluge swamped Nashville and storms just north of Rio caused the deadliest landslides Brazil has ever seen. • Observed increase in precipitation in the last few decades has been due in large part to a disproportionate increase in heavy and extreme precipitation rates which are exceeding predictions made in models
  10. 10. Western Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS)• Sits on land below sea level• Can easily break up once sea water getsunder ice• Originally thought that breakup wouldtake hundreds of years• New evidence indicates that breakupwill happen within 40 years when planetwarms up 1C (we are already up .8C)•S ea levels would be 3.3m – 4.8m•Ice collapsed as recent as 125,000 yearsago•IPCC says ice is one of the poorestunderstood areas the-west-antarctic-ice-sheet.html Sea levels may rise 3x faster than predicted by IPCC rise-six-feet-three-times-faster-than-the-ipcc- estimat/
  11. 11. Climate Forecasts• MIT report predicts median temperature forecast of 5.2°C – 11°C increase in Northern Canada & Europe – hp?publication_id=990 MIT• Last Ice age average global temperature was 5-6°C cooler than today – Most of Canada & Europe was under 2-3 km ice• Nearly 90 per cent of new scientific findings reveal global climate disruption to be worse, and progressing more rapidly, than expected. • enburg_2010_ASC.pdf
  12. 12. What does 1C average temperature mean?• In the 1700s – when global average temperature was 1C colder than now, New Yorkers could walk from Manhattan to Staten Island on ice as thick as 8 feet – the-little-ice-age-lessons-for-today/ 12
  13. 13. CO2 vs Temperature Rule of Thumb: 1°C for 10 ppm CO2
  14. 14. Climate Sensitivity The Worst is yet to come Rapid Increase in the Greenhouse Gas CO2 Since Industrial Era BeganMedieval Warm Little Period Ice Age1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
  15. 15. Urgency of Action • “We’re uncertain about the magnitude of climate change, which is inevitable, because we’re talking about reaching levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere not seen in millions of years. • You might think that this uncertainty weakens the case for action, but it actually strengthens it. • This risk of catastrophe, rather than the details of cost-benefit calculations, makes the most powerful case for strong climate policy.Nobel Laureate Paul • Current projections of global warming in the absence of action are justKrugman too close to the kinds of numbers associated with doomsday scenarios. It would be irresponsible — it’s tempting to say criminally irresponsible — not to step back from what could all too easily turn out to be the0/04/11/magazine/11Econom edge of a cliff.”y-t.html?pagewanted=1
  16. 16. New Challenge: Climate Adaptation• Obama’s National Science Advisor John Holdren “Mitigation alone won’t work, because the climate is already changing, we’re already experiencing impacts….A mitigation only strategy would be insanity,”• Equal emphasis given to adaptation – avoiding the unmanageable, and adaptation – managing the unavoidable.”• Obama’s Climate Adaptation Executive Order –
  17. 17. Impact of ICT sectorAccording to IEA ICT will represent 40% of all energy consumption by 2030 www.smart2020.orgICT represent 8% of global electricity consumptionFuture Broadband- Internet alone is expected to consume 5% of all electricity
  18. 18. Growth Projections Data Centers• Half of ICT consumption is data centers• In ten years 50% of today’s Data Centers and major science facilities in the US will have insufficient power and cooling;*• By 2012, half of all Data Centers will have to relocate or outsource applications to another facility.*• CO2 emissions from US datacenters greater than all CO2 emissions from Netherlands or Argentina• Coal fuels much of Internet cloud, Greenpeace says• Data centers will consume 12% of electricity in the US by 2020 (TV Telecom) Source: Gartner; Meeting the DC power and cooling challenge
  19. 19. R&E biggest consumer!!Per employee Per sectorAustralian Computer Society Study
  20. 20. Digital vs Traditional appliances
  21. 21. The Falsehood of Energy Efficiency• Most current approaches to reduce carbon footprint are focused on increased energy efficiency of equipment and processes – No question it save money, but does little for the environment• Greenpeace Report “Electricity demand of IT remains on the rise, efficiency can only slow emission growth. In order to achieve the reductions necessary to keep the sector’s emissions in check and maintains afe levels of global greenhouse gases, clean energy needs to become the primary source of power for IT infrastructure. – Greenpeace “How dirty is your data” mate/2011/Cool%20IT/dirty-data-report-greenpeace.pdf• But greater efficiency can paradoxically increase energy consumption by reducing overall cost service and therefore stimulates demand – Khazzoom-Brookes postulate (aka Jevons paradox - not to be confused with rebound effect)• The issue is not the amount of energy that we use, but the type of energy
  22. 22. Zero Carbon strategy essential• Zero carbon strategy using renewable energy critically important if governments mandate carbon neutrality, or if there is a climate catastrophe• With a zero carbon strategy growth in demand for services will not effect GHG emissions – Anything times zero is always zero• Wind and solar power are most likely candidates because of opportunity cost/benefit analysis especially time to deploy – Nuclear has high opportunity cost because of time to deploy – solar-baseload-easily-beat-nuclear-and-they-all-best-clean-coal/• But renewable energy sites are usually located far from cities and electrical distribution systems are not designed to carry load – nsmission.pdf – Local wind/solar will be an important component
  23. 23. Get off the Grid!• Purchasing green power locally is expensive with significant transmission line losses –Demand for green power within cities expected to grow dramatically• ICT facilities DON’T NEED TO BE LOCATED IN CITIES –-Cooling also a major problem in cities• But most renewable energy sites are very remote and impractical to connect to electrical grid. – Can be easily reached by an optical network – Provide independence from electrical utility and high costs in wheeling power – Savings in transmission line losses (up to 15%) alone, plus carbon offsets can pay for moving ICT facilities to renewable energy site •ICT is only industry ideally suited to relocate to renewable energy sites – Also ideal for business continuity in event of climate catastrophe
  24. 24. MIT to build zero carbon data center in Holyoke MA• The data center will be managed and funded by the four main partners in the facility: the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cisco Systems, the University of Massachusetts and EMC.• It will be a high-performance computing environment that will help expand the research and development capabilities of the companies and schools in Holyoke – sco-emc-team-mit-launch-100m-green-data-center
  25. 25. “The best place in North America for Data Center”- CIO Magazine• Partnership between IBM and Rackforce• $100m investment – 85,000 sq ft• Cheap renewable power, well educated community, geological stability• Hydro electric power as low as 2 cents per kilowatt, versus 20 cents in Kelowna BC other jurisdiction
  26. 26. Many examples Ecotricity in UK builds windmills atWind powered data centers data center locations with no capital cost to user Hydro-electric powered data centers Data Islandia ASIO solar powered data centers Digital Data Archive 17
  27. 27. GreenStar NetworkWorld’s First Zero Carbon Cloud/Internet
  28. 28. OpenFlow Follow the wind/Follow the sun Canadian GSN European GSN Domain Domain Export VM Notify EU Cloud Manager Cloud Manager Cloud Manager Internet Dynamically Configure IP Tunnel Host Network Host Resource Manager Resource • Shudown VM • Copy Image • Update VM Context Mantychore2 • Start VM Shared VM storage Shared storage VM Lightpath Optical switch Optical switchHost Cloud Proxy Cloud Proxy Host
  29. 29. AMD, HP & Clarkson U GreenCloud•Demonstrate the feasibility of deploying a networkof Performance Optimized Datacenters(PODs), geographically distributed to exploit theavailability of renewable energy for its operation.• Optimizing the utilization of the available renewablepower for computing by intelligently redistributingcomputational load;•Minimizing losses associated with powertransmission by placing the PODs near the powersource;•Providing energy and design efficiency through theuse of additional passive cooling for the PODs•Use the wind power that is currently stranded, i.e.not-delivered to the grid due to the T&D constraints.
  30. 30. National GreenCloud Vision
  31. 31. ICT’s Enabling Effect is Significant• Can deliver carbon emission reductions five times size of sector’s own footprint by 2020 – 7.8 Giga-tons carbon dioxide equivalent – Greater than US or China’s current annual emissions• Key sectors include Transportation, Buildings, Industri al Processes, and Power• No other sector can achieve this enabler effect !! Source: SMART 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age, 2008 12
  32. 32. Carbon rewards instead of carbon taxes?• Governments have been wrestling with the challenge of how to reduce CO2 emissions – E.g US Congress Cap and trade bill – BC Carbon taxes• Rather than penalize consumers and businesses for carbon emissions, can we reward them for reducing their carbon emissions? – And stimulate important sectors of the economy that plays to our strengths• Carbon rewards can be virtual products delivered over broadband networks such movies, books, education, health services, collaborative education and research technologies etc• Carbon reward can also be free services (with low carbon footprint) such as Internet, cell phone, fiber to the home, etc
  33. 33. Case Western pilot with Kindle DX• One pound of printer paper generates 4 pounds of CO2• One pound of newspaper produces 3 pounds of CO2• One pound of textbooks produces 5 pounds of CO2• Babcock school of Management textbooks for 160 students alone produces 45 Tons CO2• footprint-stuff.html• Carbon is currently $20 ton, with cap and trade it could be $100 ton
  34. 34. Carbon Reward Strategy – Free Fiber to the Home• Provide free high speed Internet and fiber to the home with resale of electrical and gas power –• Customer pays a premium on their gas and electric bill• Customers encouraged to save money through reduced energy consumption and reduced carbon output• Customer NOT penalized if they reduce energy consumption – May end up paying substantially less then they do now for gas + electricity + broadband + telephone + cable• Network operator gets guaranteed revenue based on energy consumption rather than fickle triple play – See
  35. 35. Get off the Grid Part II Building the Future “Energy Internet” Business Opportunities 35
  36. 36. Current limitations of eVehicles (EV)• High capital cost due to large cost of batteries• High operating cost because batteries need to be replaced every 2-5 years• Limited range, especially in cold weather when battery capacity is reduced• Battery capacity reduced by up to 1/3 if air conditioning or cabin heating is required• Long time to re-charge between trips – So a small number of short trips within a day can deplete batteries – Inhibits spontaneity of taking a long trip because of uncertainty of charge state• Although operational cost (i.e. fuel consumption) is less than traditional automobile overall amortized cost higher 36
  37. 37. Alternative to the battery• Rather than waiting for perfect battery why not change the charging system?• Old world thinking that vehicles must be stationary to be refueled. – This was true when using fossil fuels• But with electric vehicles there is no reason why they cannot be charged while on the move• Dynamic (on the move) charging 37
  38. 38. Two alternative approaches• Induction charging with embedded induction pads in the road – Auckland University company in $70m deal with Qualcomm for inductive car charging technology – – But induction charging requires precise tolerances and alignment – Difficult to maintain in heavy traffic and inclement weather such as ice and snow – Also requires specialized electronics in vehicle• Capacitive Charging using overhead “electrical umbrellas” - capabuses – Currently operation in Shanghai with public buses – 38
  39. 39. New Zealand HaloIPT Induction Charging 39
  40. 40. Shanghai Capabus – Capacitive Charging China is experimenting with a new form of electric bus, known as Capabus, which runs without continuous overhead lines (is an autonomous vehicle) by using power stored in large onboard electric double-layer capacitors (EDLCs), which are quickly recharged whenever the vehicle stops at any bus stop (under so-called electric umbrellas), and fully charged in the terminus. 40
  41. 41. Next generation dynamic charging To Grid for feed in tariff Inverter Ultra-capacitor Charging rail eVehicle with charging whip 20 – 100 meters 41
  42. 42. Why not use power from grid for dynamic charging?• Most grid systems have large percentage of coal power – CO2 savings are marginal – Scant CO2 Benefit from China’s Coal-Powered Electric Cars – from-chinas-coal.html• Within 3- 4 years it is expected electricity from solar panels will be cheaper than from grid – future_to_renewable_energy/2462/• Grid interconnection fees, transformers, debt retirement charges, etc significantly drive up costs – However in some locations using solar panel to feed power to grid may allow for additional revenue 42
  43. 43. Initial target markets• Drive through banks, fast food restaurants, parking garages, universities, golf courses, etc – “Will that be fries with your free electrical charge?” – Complete package of PV system on roof connected to ultra-capacitor and charge rail – When PV is not charging vehicles it can be making money from feed in tariff – Guaranteed 6-10% return even if not a single vehicle charged• Initial target vehicles: campus service vehicles, utility fleets, golf carts, ride sharing, early EV adopters• Eventually deployed at toll plazas, on/off ramps, stop lights and intersections 43
  44. 44. The Future – “Energy Internet”• eVehicle becomes more than a transportation system – it also becomes an energy transport system to transfer energy between dynamic charging stations – E.g. power from under utilized charging stations can be delivered by eVehicle to charging stations that are heavily used – Or power can be brought to the home to provide backup power to the home• Dynamic charging station becomes energy packet router/switch!• Rather than eVehicle coming home with depleted batteries, instead it comes home fully charged in order to provide power to the home• eVehicle becomes competitive alternative to the electrical grid 44
  45. 45. GHG Regulation in British Columbia • Bill 44-2007 was introduced in 2007 and enacted into law in 2008. The law is known as the Greenhouse Gas Reductions Target Act. • The Act establishes greenhouse gas emission target levels for the Province. – 2020 BC GHG will be 33% less than 2007. – 2050 BC GHG will be 80% less than 2007. SOURCE: “Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report 2007”, Ministry of Environment, Victoria, British Columbia, July 2009 • Bill mandates that by 2010 each public sector organization must be carbon neutral. • If a public sector organization can not achieve carbon neutrality then they are required to purchase offsets at $24/tonSource: Jerry Sheehan UCSD
  46. 46. The Cost of CO2: UBC SOURCE: UBC Greenhouse Gas Liability 2010-2012 2010 2011 2012 Carbon Offset $1,602,750 $1,602,750 $1,602,750 Carbon Tax $1,179,940 $1,474,925 $1,769,910 SOURCE: UBC Climate Action Plan, GHG 2006 Inventory Total $2,782,690 $3,077,675 $3,372,660 SOURCE: UBC Sustainability Office, August 2009Source: Jerry Sheehan UCSD
  47. 47. $1 billion funding program• Green revolving funds are either part of a university endowment program or publicly traded entities. –• They make investments in energy efficiency and GHG reduction initiatives. Payback typically 32%• ICT can represent up to 40% of the electrical energy consumption at university and growing• The obvious low hanging fruit is to move, as much as possible the closet clusters and campus data center facilities to commercial clouds. Next is network infrastructure such as routing and servers• Other obvious money saving practices are to power laptop and cell phone charging stations with roof top solar panels or micro windmills, deploy solar/wind powered WiFi nodes, and use on the move electric charging for campus utility vehicles, etc• Campus IT folk and NRENs need to educate managers of such funds the IT and networking can play a much more significant role in reducing energy consumption and GHG emissions 47 then traditional facilities based solutions
  48. 48. Further Reading• Green Investment Opportunity for small business - on the move electric car charging for-small.html• How California suburban sprawl could be the answer to global warming could-be.html• The "Energy Internet" - how the Internet + renewable energy can transform the economy renewable.html#more• Electric roads and Internet will allow coast to coast driving with no stopping and no emissions allow.html 48
  49. 49. Let’s Keep The Conversation Going E-mail list BlogspotBill St. Arnaud Twitter