Pathways to Sustainability



        January 2003
What is Sustainable
  Development?
Sustainable Development
• Sustainability is a ‘direction’ not a fixed goal
  – is development that meets the needs of the ...
Sustainable Development
  The challenge facing the world today is not just about
  redistribution of resources to ensure g...
5 most NB docs of our time:
• The Challenge of Slums – UN Habitat
  Report
• 1998 Human Development Report
• Intergovernme...
Urbanization




• Approximately half the world’s population is now urban
• Urban areas are gaining an estimated 60 millio...
Future Urbanization




Most of the urbanization that will exist in 2030 has not
yet occurred. Urban pop. of developing na...
PLANET OF SLUMS

                       one billion
                  people worldwide
                     live in slums
...
1998 Human Development
          Report
Richest 20% of the world:
                      world:
• account for 86% of total ...
Global Poverty Trends
Global Warming
Global Warming




             Picture: New Scientist, 2006
Responses to Climate
      Change
Stern Report
“Climate change will affect the basic elements of life for people around
   the world – access to water, food...
urbanvill
            Cape Town 2100 - Raise in Seawater Levels of 15m
               Cape Town 2010 - Current Seawater Le...
Carbon Emissions, 1800-2000
                  1800-




                      Swilling, M. 2007
Colin Campbell Prediction
                                         (Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, http://www.oilpeak.net ...
Oil Price              $ 70 per Barrel
                                                       - June 2007

               ...
Millenium Eco-Assessment
             Eco-
           1360 experts from 95 countries


• 60% (15 out of 24) of the ecosyst...
Millenium Eco-Assessment
           Eco-
• “The consumption of ecosystem services, which
  is unsustainable in many cases,...
Deforestation
50% of the forests that originally covered the Earth have
  been cleared - 36 million acres are destroyed ea...
Desertification




      Desertification threatens the livelihood
of over 1 billion people in more than 110 countries

  ...
Loss of Biodiversity




More than 11,000 species
of animals and plants are
known to be threatened
with extinction –
     ...
Species Distribution
                  Species Distribution
180

160

140

120

100

                                     ...
Species Distribution
                  Species Distribution
180

160

140

120

100

                                     ...
Species Distribution
                  Species Distribution
180

160

140

120

100

                                     ...
Dependence and
          vulnerability
                (WRI 2002-2004)
                     2002-
• Annual value of global...
Dependence and
          vulnerability
                (WRI 2002-2004)
                     2002-
• No. of people dependen...
GROWTH IS NOT EQUIVALENT TO DEVELOPMENT


THRESHOLD HYPOTHESIS :
  For every society there seems to be a period in
  which...
Economic Gravity Shifts to
                    Asia
                                                                    GD...
Making sense of it all….
………….from footprinting……….

          ………to sustainability
Footprinting




               Rees and Wackernagel, 1995
Footprinting




               Rees and Wackernagel, 1995
Footprinting




               Rees and Wackernagel, 1995
Footprinting




               Rees and Wackernagel, 1995
Footprinting




               Rees and Wackernagel, 1995
Ecological Footprint




                WWF Living Planet Report, 2006
Ecological Footprint Scenarios




                      WWF Living Planet Report, 2006
Big Ticket Items…
• Energy
• Water
• Sanitation
• Solid waste
• Transportation – infrastructure, vehicles,
  fuels
• Build...
Consumption Reality




               WWF Living Planet Report, 2006
Footprinting




               Rees and Wackernagel, 1995
Footprinting




               Rees and Wackernagel, 1995
“Dematerialisation”




SA: 1994-2004?
Longer term costing

                    Tazz         Smart

Price              75 000.00    120 000.00
Difference        ...
Longer term costing

                    Tazz         Smart

Price              75 000.00    120 000.00
Difference        ...
Picture: New Scientist, 2006
The New Language
The New Language
The New Language
The New Language
The New Language
The New Language
The New Language
The New Language
The New Language
The New Language
Where to next for
   Tourism?
Tourism Economy
Only aspect not being correctly accounted for
            is that of resources!!


                       ...
Tourism Supply Chain




                   Tools & Tips 2005
Supply Chain Survey
Employ Equity   Total BEE/E     Aff. Procure   HR Practice    Labour Compl.       BCEA          CSI   ...
Evolution of Corp. Change
             1. Minimalist                            2. Philanthropic
                         ...
Should Tourism Businesses
         Respond?
• No … “Big Science” will find the solution
• No … Government will provide the...
Should Tourism Businesses
         Respond?
• Yes … “Big Science” may find the solution
  but at a cost!
• Yes … Governmen...
A few of key principles
• What you do not measure, you cannot
  change
• Always seek out the business case for a
  shift
•...
The business case
There is a social case for enhancing the
   development impact of business.
• Business remains business,...
Corporate Citizens?
“In South Africa, critical issues posing sever threats to
   development such as HIV/Aids, land redist...
A business case for change
•   Social license to operate
•   Enhanced corporate governance and staff morale
•   Customer s...
Business Case for ED
              Laundry 1     ED Laundry      Saving
   Dec             45 000          25 000
   Jan  ...
Sustainability Principles
• Sense of Justice:
   – meeting fundamental human needs (subsistence, protection, affection,
  ...
Sustainability Principles
• Sense of History:
  – valuing cultural diversity, sense of community, participatory
    cultur...
Gareth Haysom [Compatibility Mode]
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Gareth Haysom [Compatibility Mode]

690 views

Published on

Published in: Business, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
690
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
36
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
22
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Gareth Haysom [Compatibility Mode]

  1. 1. Pathways to Sustainability January 2003
  2. 2. What is Sustainable Development?
  3. 3. Sustainable Development • Sustainability is a ‘direction’ not a fixed goal – is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs – is focused on long term objectives • Sustainable development integrates economic, social and environmental objectives – People are at the centre of sustainable development – they are the AGENTS FOR CHANGE Brundtland Report 1987
  4. 4. Sustainable Development The challenge facing the world today is not just about redistribution of resources to ensure greater levels of social equity, but also to reorganise the extraction, use and disposal of those resources in order to ensure longer term survival of the ecosphere which sustains life. This great challenge poses three key questions: • What does sustainability and in particular, sustainable development mean in a South African and Tourism context? • What is the relationship between inequality and unsustainability? unsustainability? • What are the relationships between human life and all life forms and how has this relationship evolved over time?
  5. 5. 5 most NB docs of our time: • The Challenge of Slums – UN Habitat Report • 1998 Human Development Report • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • Millennium Ecosystem Assessment • Oil Depletion Analysis Centre reports on Oil Peak Series of slides taken from paper by Swilling, M. 2007
  6. 6. Urbanization • Approximately half the world’s population is now urban • Urban areas are gaining an estimated 60 million people a year – over a million a week • Most of the increase in urbanization will occur in less developed countries Swilling, M. 2007
  7. 7. Future Urbanization Most of the urbanization that will exist in 2030 has not yet occurred. Urban pop. of developing nations will double by 2030 at which time… time 60% of the world’s people will be urbanites Swilling, M. 2007 Source: York Times Almanac 2004
  8. 8. PLANET OF SLUMS one billion people worldwide live in slums One third of the total urban population! 6% of urban pop in developed countries live in slums 78% of urban pop in the least developed countries live in slums The Challenge of Slums – Kabira, Nairobi UN-HABITAT Report Swilling, M. 2007
  9. 9. 1998 Human Development Report Richest 20% of the world: world: • account for 86% of total consumption expenditure, expenditure, the poorest 20% account for 1.3% ….. and consume: • 45% of all meat and fish, the poorest fifth 5%; • 58% of total energy, the poorest fifth less than 4% • 74% of all telephone lines, the poorest fifth 1.5% • 84% of all paper, the poorest fifth 1.1% • 84% of the world’s vehicles, the poorest fifth less than 1% Swilling, M. 2007
  10. 10. Global Poverty Trends
  11. 11. Global Warming
  12. 12. Global Warming Picture: New Scientist, 2006
  13. 13. Responses to Climate Change
  14. 14. Stern Report “Climate change will affect the basic elements of life for people around the world – access to water, food production, health, and the environment. Hundreds of millions of people could suffer hunger, water shortages and coastal flooding as the world warms. Using results from formal economic models, the Review estimates that if we don’t act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, now and forever. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more. In contrast, the costs of action – reducing green- green- house gas emissions to avoid the worst impacts of climate change – can be limited to around 1% of … global GDP each year.
  15. 15. urbanvill Cape Town 2100 - Raise in Seawater Levels of 15m Cape Town 2010 - Current Seawater Levels Klapmunts Cove Durbanville Bay Stellenbergbaai Table Island Helderberg Punt Sir Lowry’s Bay Peninsula Island Hawston Bay
  16. 16. Carbon Emissions, 1800-2000 1800- Swilling, M. 2007
  17. 17. Colin Campbell Prediction (Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, http://www.oilpeak.net ) If Saudi Arabia has OIL AND GAS LIQUIDS peaked, the world 2004 Scenario has peaked 30 25 Billion Barrels a year (Gb/a) 20 M.East 15 Other 10 Russia 5 Europe US-48 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 US-48 Europe Russia Other M.East Heavy etc. Deepwater Polar NGL Swilling, M. 2007
  18. 18. Oil Price $ 70 per Barrel - June 2007 Oil Price 60 50 Brent Crude $/b 40 30 20 10 0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Swilling, M. 2007
  19. 19. Millenium Eco-Assessment Eco- 1360 experts from 95 countries • 60% (15 out of 24) of the ecosystems examined are being degraded or used unsustainably, including fresh water, capture fisheries, air and water purification, and the regulation of regional and local climate, natural hazards and pests. Costs of unsustainable resource use are rising, but get displaced from one group to another (in particular the poor) and to future generations. Swilling, M. 2007
  20. 20. Millenium Eco-Assessment Eco- • “The consumption of ecosystem services, which is unsustainable in many cases, will continue to grow as a consequence of a likely three- to six- three- six- fold increase in global GDP by 2050 even while global population growth is expected to slow and level off in mid-century. … An effective set mid- of responses to ensure the sustainable management of ecosystems requires substantial changes in institutions and governance, economic policies and incentives, social and behaviour factors, technology, and knowledge.” (p.17) Swilling, M. 2007
  21. 21. Deforestation 50% of the forests that originally covered the Earth have been cleared - 36 million acres are destroyed each year Swilling, M. 2007 Source: World Resources Institute
  22. 22. Desertification Desertification threatens the livelihood of over 1 billion people in more than 110 countries Swilling, M. 2007 Source: United Nations
  23. 23. Loss of Biodiversity More than 11,000 species of animals and plants are known to be threatened with extinction – a rate unmatched for 65 million years Swilling, M. 2007 Source: Population Reference Bureau
  24. 24. Species Distribution Species Distribution 180 160 140 120 100 Species 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
  25. 25. Species Distribution Species Distribution 180 160 140 120 100 Species 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
  26. 26. Species Distribution Species Distribution 180 160 140 120 100 Species 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
  27. 27. Dependence and vulnerability (WRI 2002-2004) 2002- • Annual value of global agricultural production = $1.3 trillion • Percentage of global agricultural lands showing soil degradation = 65% • No. of people directly dependent on forests for survival = 350 million • Decline in global forest cover since pre- pre-agricultural times = 50% Swilling, M. 2007
  28. 28. Dependence and vulnerability (WRI 2002-2004) 2002- • No. of people dependent primarily on fish for protein = 1 billion • % of global fisheries overfished or fished at their biological limit = 75% • % of world population living in water- water- stressed river basins = 41% • 20% of normal global river flow extracted for human use & 60% of major river basins are strongly or moderately fragmented by dams Swilling, M. 2007
  29. 29. GROWTH IS NOT EQUIVALENT TO DEVELOPMENT THRESHOLD HYPOTHESIS : For every society there seems to be a period in which economic growth –conventionally understood and measured- brings about an improvement in the quality of life, but only up to a point - the threshold point- beyond which, if there is more economic growth, quality of life may begin to deteriorate (M Max-Neef) This hypothesis became robust as a consequence of a number of country studies:
  30. 30. Economic Gravity Shifts to Asia GDP BRICs Have a Larger US$GDP Than the G6 GDP (2003 US$bn) The Largest Economies in 2050 in Less Than 40 Years (2003 US$bn) 50000 100,000 45000 By 2040: BRICs 90,000 BRICS 40000 G6 80,000 overtake 2025: BRICs 35000 the G6 economies 70,000 over half as 30000 60,000 large as the G6 25000 50,000 20000 40,000 15000 30,000 10000 20,000 10,000 5000 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Ch US In Jpn Br Russ UK Ger Fr It GS BRICs Model Projections. GS BRICs Model Projections.
  31. 31. Making sense of it all…. ………….from footprinting………. ………to sustainability
  32. 32. Footprinting Rees and Wackernagel, 1995
  33. 33. Footprinting Rees and Wackernagel, 1995
  34. 34. Footprinting Rees and Wackernagel, 1995
  35. 35. Footprinting Rees and Wackernagel, 1995
  36. 36. Footprinting Rees and Wackernagel, 1995
  37. 37. Ecological Footprint WWF Living Planet Report, 2006
  38. 38. Ecological Footprint Scenarios WWF Living Planet Report, 2006
  39. 39. Big Ticket Items… • Energy • Water • Sanitation • Solid waste • Transportation – infrastructure, vehicles, fuels • Building materials • Land use
  40. 40. Consumption Reality WWF Living Planet Report, 2006
  41. 41. Footprinting Rees and Wackernagel, 1995
  42. 42. Footprinting Rees and Wackernagel, 1995
  43. 43. “Dematerialisation” SA: 1994-2004?
  44. 44. Longer term costing Tazz Smart Price 75 000.00 120 000.00 Difference 60% l/100km 9 5.5 kms traveled 180 000 180 000 Total Fuel Cost 113 400.00 69 300.00 Service Costs 12 000.00 4 666.67 Running Costs 5 400.00 6 000.00 5 Year Cost 205 800.00 199 966.67 Difference -3% 7
  45. 45. Longer term costing Tazz Smart Price 75 000.00 120 000.00 Difference 60% l/100km 9 5.5 kms traveled 180 000 180 000 Total Fuel Cost 145 800.00 89 100.00 Service Costs 12 000.00 4 666.67 Running Costs 5 400.00 6 000.00 5 Year Cost 238 200.00 219 766.67 Difference -8% 9
  46. 46. Picture: New Scientist, 2006
  47. 47. The New Language
  48. 48. The New Language
  49. 49. The New Language
  50. 50. The New Language
  51. 51. The New Language
  52. 52. The New Language
  53. 53. The New Language
  54. 54. The New Language
  55. 55. The New Language
  56. 56. The New Language
  57. 57. Where to next for Tourism?
  58. 58. Tourism Economy Only aspect not being correctly accounted for is that of resources!! Salaries Profits Suppliers Manpower Resources Capital
  59. 59. Tourism Supply Chain Tools & Tips 2005
  60. 60. Supply Chain Survey Employ Equity Total BEE/E Aff. Procure HR Practice Labour Compl. BCEA CSI H&S Compl. Eco Issues 60.34% 33.82% 18.13% 73.24% 84.58% 64.34% 12.08% 43.31% 15.91% Supplier Total Em ploy Equity 100% 80% Eco Issues Total BEE/E 60% 40% 20% H&S Com pl. Aff. Procure Supplier Score 0% CSI HR Practice BCEA Labour Com pl. Spier Supply Chain Survey, 2006
  61. 61. Evolution of Corp. Change 1. Minimalist 2. Philanthropic - Project specific - Basic Stakeholder Support - Related to Specific issues relevant - Addressing aspects that are generally to the particular organisation HR orientated - Donations and gifts - Tokenistic - Seeks to change 3. Encompassing 4. Social Activist - Looks beyond the immediate business stakeholder group to broader - Approach is the foundation of the community business - Embedded in company values and - Business is a catalyst for change management style - Seeks to effect change on others - Seeks to lead change Table adapted from text in Locke, 2003. Adapted from Locke, 2003
  62. 62. Should Tourism Businesses Respond? • No … “Big Science” will find the solution • No … Government will provide the policy framework and we will work to that • No … we cant afford to change • No … we will loose our market positions if we focus on items which are not core • No … it is contrary to good business principles, this is a fad, it will pass
  63. 63. Should Tourism Businesses Respond? • Yes … “Big Science” may find the solution but at a cost! • Yes … Government may provide the policy but will our clients accept this? • Yes … we cant afford not to change • Yes … we will loose our market positions if we do not shift our focus • Yes … we need to seek out the new business principle or get left behind
  64. 64. A few of key principles • What you do not measure, you cannot change • Always seek out the business case for a shift • Think longer term, beyond that current budget cycle • Consider partnerships and seek out those businesses grappling with similar issues
  65. 65. The business case There is a social case for enhancing the development impact of business. • Business remains business, but marginal change of a massive sector could be significant.
  66. 66. Corporate Citizens? “In South Africa, critical issues posing sever threats to development such as HIV/Aids, land redistribution, government capacity to manage development processes, housing, access to credit and education underlies the reality that undertaking business in Southern Africa demands a new approach to social responsibility. The traditional idea that a philanthropic business foundation, or even joint business approaches to development through large collective donations, will suffice as a development strategy, is rapidly becoming displaced. Corporate Citizenship is about the integration of strategies into the core business in a way that compliments national and civil society development agendas, while adding value simultaneously to shareholders and stakeholders.” African Institute for Corporate Citizenship
  67. 67. A business case for change • Social license to operate • Enhanced corporate governance and staff morale • Customer satisfaction and market appeal • Government procurement, preferred partner, recognition • Enhancement of brand and unique selling point • Access to responsible financing • Minimisation of risk • Keeping regulation at bay • Saving costs Tools & Tips 2005
  68. 68. Business Case for ED Laundry 1 ED Laundry Saving Dec 45 000 25 000 Jan 45 000 25 000 Feb 45 000 25 000 Mar 45 000 25 000 Apr 45 000 25 000 May 35 000 22 000 Jun 30 000 17 000 Jul 32 000 19 000 Aug 30 000 17 000 Sep 35 000 19 000 Oct 40 000 24 000 Nov 45 000 27 000 472 000 270 000 202 000 Set Up 75 000 Sundry 10 000 Total Cost 472 000 355 000 117 000 Jobs 2 7 5 Salary 1 700 2 000 Months 12 12 Com Flow 40 800 168 000 127 200
  69. 69. Sustainability Principles • Sense of Justice: – meeting fundamental human needs (subsistence, protection, affection, understanding, participation, idleness, creativity, identity and freedom) with appropriate satisfiers – rights-based democratic governance and participation rights- • Sense of Limits: – transition to renewable energy alternatives and energy efficiency – zero waste via re-use of waste outputs as productive inputs re- – connectivity via sustainable transport, with a major focus on public transport – home building, sustainable construction materials and building methods – sustainable water use and re-use of treated sewerage re- • Sense of Place: – health, well-being and soulfulness well- – safe places within integrated communities (with special reference to children and women) DBSA/Sustainability Institute,2006
  70. 70. Sustainability Principles • Sense of History: – valuing cultural diversity, sense of community, participatory culture, healing and memory • Sense of Craft: – growing the local economy, greater equity and fair trade – local and sustainable food supplies, markets, & agricultural value chains (especially organic food) – human skills, knowledge development and continuous learning • Sense of Nature: – reverence for life, enhancing biodiversity and the preservation of natural habitats – working with rather than against eco-systems eco- DBSA/Sustainability Institute,2006

×