Economic Update (Nov 2010)

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Economic Update (Nov 2010)

  1. 1. Economic Update 11/08/2010
  2. 2. 3nd Quarter GDP: 2.0% (Initial Estimate)3nd Quarter GDP: 2.0% (Initial Estimate) Video, Job Loss/Gain & GDP Source: CNBC, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Wall Street Journal Video & Economic SummaryVideo & Economic Summary GDP Release GDP was 2.0% in the 2th quarter (initial estimate) Videos start with 15 sec commercial Anticipating the jobs report (Nov 5, 2010) (5 min 40 sec) with Tig Gilliam, Adecco Group North America, Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics Click to Play` Tracking in Job Growth 2010 The United States needs to increase by ~125,000 jobs on average/month (on the Household survey) to keep the unemployment rate from decreasing (because the population of the United States typically increased by ~1.5 million workers every year due to population growth and immigration). BLS Surveys (Monthly Jobs Growth/Loss) Month Household Payroll Jan 541 14 Feb 308 39 March 264 208 April 550 313 May -35 432 June -301 -175 July -159 -66 Aug 290 -1 Sept 141 -41 Oct -330 151 Total 1,269 874 Avg/Month 127 87   2009 2010  Components of  GDP 1st 2nd 3rd 4th  1st 2nd 3rd Consumers    -0.34% -1.12% 1.41% 0.69% 1.33% 1.54% 1.79% (Personal  Consumption) *Businesses   -6.80% -2.30% 1.22% 2.70% 3.04% 2.88% 1.54% (Gross Private  Domestic Investment) Net Exports                    (Exports-Imports) 2.88% 1.47% -1.37% 1.90% -0.31% -3.50% -2.01% Government  -0.61% 1.24% 0.33% -0.28% -0.32% 0.80% 0.68% Total GDP -4.90% -7.00% 1.60% 5.00% 3.70% 1.72% 2.00%                 *Inventories   -1.09% -1.03% 1.10% 2.83% 2.64% 0.82% 1.44%component of Business
  3. 3. Number of people employed as a temporary employee divided by total non farm payroll employment June 2009 Recession Officially Ended July 2009 Temp Penetration Trend Turns Positive Oct 2009 1st Job Growth >100,000 (Household Survey) Nov 2009 1st Job Growth (Payroll Survey) Temp Employment Temporary help services gained 35,000 jobs. Why is the Temp Penetration Rate Important? “Temporary Help Employment is a Leading Indicator for Nonfarm Employment—Staffing job trends lead nonfarm employment by three months when the economy is emerging from a recession and by six months during periods of normal economic growth.” American Staffing Association US Employment Situation Temp Penetration Rate: 1.67% .03%Temp Penetration Rate: 1.67% .03% Job Loses Change from Previous Month Government -8,000 Manufacturing -7,000 Leisure & Hospitality -5,000 Financial Activities -1,000 Job Gains Change from Previous Month Professional & Business Services 46,000 Retail Trade 27,900 Construction 5,000 Education & Health Services 53,000 - Education 19,200 - Healthcare 24,100 - Social Assistance 9,900 Job Loss/Gain: +151,000 JobsJob Loss/Gain: +151,000 Jobs Unemployment Rate: 9.6% no changeUnemployment Rate: 9.6% no change Unemployment Rate: Bachelor’s Degree or higher June July Aug Sept Oct 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Staffing Association Nonfarm Payroll – Job Growth Details Jobs Added/Lost Private Sector 159,000 Government Sector -8,000 Census -5,000 Federal, State, Local -3,000 Total +151,000 End of the Census: There were only about 1,000 temporary census workers remaining on Federal Payrolls in October.
  4. 4. USA Today: One Year Forecast Change in Jobs (3rd Qtr 2011 vs. 3rd Qtr 2010) USA Today: One Year Forecast Change in Jobs (3rd Qtr 2011 vs. 3rd Qtr 2010) GDP Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal) GDP Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal) Unemployment Rate Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal) Unemployment Rate Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal) Projections Source: Wall Street Journal, USA Today Please note: WSJ Projections were released prior to the BLS report For Interactive Graph: Click Here

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