Economic Update 05/09/2011
Video, Job Loss/Gain & GDP 1st Quarter GDP:  1.8%  (Advanced Estimate) Source:  CNBC, Bureau of  Economic Analysis, Bureau...
US Employment Situation Number of people employed as a temporary employee divided by total non farm payroll employment Jun...
Projections GDP Projections  Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)  Job Engine Shifts Into High Gear U.S. Payrolls Gr...
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Economic Update (May 2011)

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May Economic Update

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Economic Update (May 2011)

  1. 1. Economic Update 05/09/2011
  2. 2. Video, Job Loss/Gain & GDP 1st Quarter GDP: 1.8% (Advanced Estimate) Source: CNBC, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Wall Street Journal Video & Economic Summary Videos start with 15 sec commercial Why Did the Unemployment Rate Rise? <ul><li>The economy added 244,000 jobs in April Link to WSJ Article </li></ul><ul><li>but the unemployment rate skipped from 8.8% to 9%. Why? </li></ul><ul><li>1. These are Calculated on two different surveys: </li></ul><ul><li>- Establishment Survey (Businesses) = 244,000 Jobs </li></ul><ul><li>- Household Survey (Individuals) = 9.0% Unemployment Rate </li></ul><ul><li>2. Household Survey has a smaller sample size (measures less people) and is more volatile. </li></ul><ul><li>The household survey showed a loss of 190,000 jobs + The labor force (# of people working or looking for work) stayed about the same </li></ul><ul><li>= Increased unemployment rate </li></ul><ul><li>4. The household survey also includes workers that don’t show up in the establishment survey, like: </li></ul><ul><li>- Farmers </li></ul><ul><li>- The self-employed </li></ul><ul><li>- People who work without pay in the family store </li></ul><ul><li>Adjusting the figures to make an apples-to-apples comparison with the establishment survey, </li></ul><ul><li>the household survey showed a gain 50,000 jobs </li></ul>Labor Market Pain Grows ( 3 min 09 sec) Matt Ferguson (May 5, 2011) Pulse of Employment ( 4 min 22 sec) Tig Gilliam, of Adecco Group (Released just prior to the jobs number, May 6, 2011) Click to Play Click to Play   2010 2011 Components of GDP 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st Consumers 1.33% 1.54% 1.67% 2.79% 1.91% (Personal Consumption) *Businesses 3.04% 2.88% 1.80% -2.61% 1.01% (Gross Private Domestic Investment) Net Exports (Exports-Imports) -0.31% -3.50% -1.70% 3.27% -0.08% Government -0.32% 0.80% 0.79% -0.34% -1.09% Total GDP 3.70% 1.72% 2.56% 3.11% 1.75%             *Inventories 2.64% 0.82% 1.61% -3.42% 0.93% component of Business
  3. 3. US Employment Situation Number of people employed as a temporary employee divided by total non farm payroll employment June 2009 Recession Officially Ended July 2009 Temp Penetration Trend Turns Positive Oct 2009 1 st Job Growth >100,000 (Household Survey) Nov 2009 1 st Job Growth (Payroll Survey) Temp Employment Temporary help services lost 2,300 jobs. Why is the Temp Penetration Rate Important? “ Temporary Help Employment is a Leading Indicator for Nonfarm Employment—Staffing job trends lead nonfarm employment by three months when the economy is emerging from a recession and by six months during periods of normal economic growth . ” American Staffing Association Temp Penetration Rate: 1.72 % no change +. 02% Job Loss/Gain: +244,000 Jobs Unemployment Rate: 9.0% +0.2% I Unemployment Rate: Bachelor’s Degree or higher Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Staffing Association Dec Jan Feb March April 4.8% 4.2% 4.3% 4..4% 4.5% Nonfarm Payroll – Job Growth Details Jobs Added/Lost Private Sector 268,000 Government Sector -24,000 Total 244,000 Job Gains Change from Previous Month Retail Trade 57,100 Professional & Business Services 51,000 Leisure & Hospitality 46,000 Manufacturing 29,000 Construction 5,000 Financial Activities 4,000 Education & 49,000 Health Services - Education 7,300 - Healthcare 37,300 - Social Assistance 4,500 Job Loses Change from Previous Month Government -24,000
  4. 4. Projections GDP Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal) Job Engine Shifts Into High Gear U.S. Payrolls Grow at Swiftest Rate in Five Years Despite Rise in Unemployment Rate to 9.0% ( Wall Street Journal) Unemployment Rate Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal) Source: Wall Street Journal, CareerBuilder Please note: WSJ Projections were released prior to the BLS report Unemployment Rate Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)

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