Let’s be honest …. Most of you have products /ideas only a mother could love !
The biggest 3 mistakes of Entrepreneurs1. Investing in the wrong business2. Staying too long in the wrong business.. (after you should know it is time to change…)3. People don’t buy your product or service ‘cause they understand why they should…
I will see it when I believe it vs. I will believe it when I see itToo much research is the first type
An example: global warming Hot summers Cold summers Warm winters Cold winters Evidence of Evidence of global warming global warmingClearly there is evidence of global warming ?!
Solutions …Issues Solutions• We often do research to check • Objective criteria in place before our brilliant ideas the research starts• SUGGING (Selling under the guise – Is 35% planned purchase good or bad of market research) • Clearly define your biases before you start • Focus on insight (vs. confirmation) • Do regular reality checks 6
You’re not alone !‘‘More than nine out of ten consumable products launched in the last ten years offered absolutely nothing new to the consumer.More than eight out of ten new products fail. Youdon’t need to be a statistician to realize there’s a correlation between the two numbers.’’ -- Robert McMath
Arguing the other direction… Why is this a bad idea… If it fails, why will it fail…And then deciding what canbe done about it…
A checklist for ideas…• Is there a benefit (real or perceived)• People willing to pay (enough)• Cost of cut-through acceptable• People will see the benefit buy again / recommend to others• Will someone hate it
Pets.com Kosmo Despair.com Etoys.com Petrock Flooz WebvanIs there a benefit (real orpercieved)People willing to pay (enough)Cost of cut-through acceptablePeople will see the benefit buyagain / recommend to othersWill someone hate itKill Puppy (0 = kill, 1 = love)
Pets.comPet supplies via the internetSave big, save time Stay at home 11
Costs per stageBudget The time to Make mistakes ! Ideas, screening Concept, analysis Time Prod. Test commercialization devel mktg
Can you ask the experts ??? “I think there’s a world market for about five computers.” (President of IBM, 1943) “TV won’t be able to hold on to any market itcaptures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.” (President of 20th Century Fox, 1946)
Should consumers be followed or led ? Mobile phone Computers Internet… 28
Not all new products are revolutions ! There are many holes in themarkets, but fewer markets in the holes ..
A checklist …• Talk to 20 people (that are not your friends)• If no one hates the idea, be scared• Ask people “if this fails” why would it fail (you’ll get a lot more information than asking what they think of the idea !)• Keep it simple … check do people really understand
Remember better is never enough Fat Bastard is priced higher, tastes less good but outsells Bilton 10 to 1…
A reading list• The wisdom of crowds … how you can use non- experts to get answers to tough questions• The start-ups owners manual..Chapter 3 customer discovery• William Harmon- An incomplete guide to the future… how to see what paradigms are affecting the way the you see the future