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Brussels Briefing 53: Thang Nguyen-Quoc '' Africa’s development trajectory in the evolving global context ''

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The Brussels Policy Briefing n. 53 on ”The next generation of farmers: successes and new opportunities” took place on 20th November 2018 (ACP Secretariat). It was co-organised by CTA, the European Commission (DG Devco and DG Agri), the ACP Secretariat and CONCORD.

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Brussels Briefing 53: Thang Nguyen-Quoc '' Africa’s development trajectory in the evolving global context ''

  1. 1. AFRICA’S DEVELOPMENT DYNAMICS 2018 Growth, jobs and inequalities Thang Nguyen Policy Analyst - Africa Unit, OECD Development Centre Brussels, 20 November 2018
  2. 2. AfDD is the result of a broad partnership between DEV and AUC Memorandum of Understanding (2014-16 and 2016-21) Better statistics Policy dialogue Annual report 2
  3. 3. Africa’s growth is projected to return to its 2009-14 regime, but … African economies have grown by 4.6% since 2000…but challenges remain -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 (p) 2022 (p) Africa Developing Asia LAC % Real GDP growth, 1990-2022 3 Source: Africa’s Development Dynamics 2018
  4. 4. Fighting extreme poverty (36% or 395 million people) calls for fighting inequalities 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Algeria Mauritius Seychelles Egypt Tunisia Morocco Sudan SouthAfrica Botswana Zimbabwe Djibouti Namibia Swaziland SouthSudan Nigeria Lesotho Mauritania Ghana Comoros Cameroon Côted’Ivoire SaoTomeandPrincipe Ethiopia Uganda Guinea Congo Senegal Chad Liberia BurkinaFaso Niger Tanzania Togo Mali Benin SierraLeone Zambia Rwanda Guinea-Bissau Malawi Burundi DRC Madagascar China VietNam Brazil Indonesia India African countries not in HIPC African countries in HIPC Benchmarks Initial poverty Latest poverty Poverty reduction in 42 African countries & benchmarking countries 4 Source: Africa’s Development Dynamics 2018
  5. 5. Productivity must grow faster by creating jobs in the more productive sectors -0.7 -0.9 -0.4 -0.1 -0.9 -0.9 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.8 1 -1 0 1 2 3 4 1990-2000 2000-10 1990-2000 2000-10 1990-2000 2000-10 Africa Asia LAC Labour shift, dynamic effect Labour shift, static effect Within-sector productivity gains Overall productivity gains Annual labour productivity growth (%) Decomposition of labour productivity growth, 1990-2010 5 Source: Africa’s Development Dynamics 2018
  6. 6. Source: Africa’s Development Dynamics 2018 Shifting wealth New production revolution Demographic dividends Urban transition Climate change 5 Megatrends will shape Africa’s development strategies 6
  7. 7. Africa’s rapid demographic growth and urbanisation bring a window of opportunities 7 By 2050, Africa will account for 69% of the total increase in global labour force 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Africa’s population by 2050 (in milions) Total Urban Rural 902 (+136%) -200 (-20%) 263 (+31%) -85 (-17%) 25 (+12%) Africa China India Europe United States Workforce changes by 2050, in millions Demographic dividends ↑ demand for jobs - ↑ demand for basic services - - ↑ domestic market - ↑ savings for investment Urban transition Urban poverty - Urban congestion - - ↑ urban markets - Infrastructure development Africa’s urbanisation occurs twice as fast as Europe’s Risks Opportunities
  8. 8. THANK YOU!

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