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Brussels Briefing 48: Denis Pesche "Fostering employment through territorial development"

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The Brussels Development Briefing no. 48 on “Strengthening rural livelihoods in the face of rapid urbanisation in Africa” took place on 20th March 2017 from 14:00 to 18:00, at the ACP Secretariat (Avenue Georges Henri 451, 1200 Brussels, Room C). This Briefing was co-organised by CTA, BMZ/GIZ, the ACP Secretariat, European Commission (DG DEVCO) and Concord

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Brussels Briefing 48: Denis Pesche "Fostering employment through territorial development"

  1. 1. Fostering employment through territorial development Brussels Development Briefing no. 48 “Strengthening rural livelihoods in the face of rapid urbanisation in Africa” Denis Pesche, CIRAD 2Oth March, 2017 20th March, 2017
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  3. 3. 20st March, 2017
  4. 4. A demographic challenge… Population increase among world regions and countries: past and future In the next 40 years: + 1.35 B people in SSA and + 200 M in North Africa 20th March, 2017
  5. 5. A remaining importance of rural population • With the exception of North Africa, South Africa and several countries in the Gulf of Guinea: 60% of the population is rural • The majority of SSA population will remain rural till the mid- 2040s • Nearly 1 B rural residents in 2050 (+350 M) 20th March, 2017
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  7. 7. A common employment challenge • Yearly youth cohort = 23 M today, 33 M in 2030 • In the next 15 years, 440 M youth will enter the “labor market” • Nigeria (70 M) • Ethiopia (40 M) • Egypt (28 M) • Most of them will live in rural areas 20th March, 2017
  8. 8. Youth face a very limited economic diversification… • SSA’s urbanization occurred without industrialization • Consequences are: – The remaining role of agriculture, extractive industries and informal services in GDP – The importance of informal employment (self- employment and farming) 20st March, 2017
  9. 9. An important factor: the densification of links between towns and the countryside
  10. 10. The African equation • African countries face the challenges of an incipient economic and an incomplete demographic transition • These two historical challenges are faced in today’s world characterized by globalization and climate change • What can be the adequate and effective answers knowing that there will not be duplication of past “transformation pathways” • How to deal with poorly diversified economic structures and a growing labor force? 20th March, 2017
  11. 11. THE AFRICAN EQUATION AT LOCAL LEVEL : MALI AND SENEGAL 20th March, 2017
  12. 12. 20th March, 2017 • 62 504 km2 • 2,8 millions people • total fertility rate 6,6 (2010) • 3 urban towns (Ségou, Niono, San) • A large irrigated system: Office du Niger Ségou, Mali
  13. 13. Ségou, Mali 2,763 millions 4,583 millions The demographic challenge TFR: 6,6 in 2010, 4,6 in 2035 1,502 millions 1993 2015 2035 20th March, 2017
  14. 14. 20th March, 2017 Ségou, Mali 1987 2009
  15. 15. Ségou, Mali The employment challenge 38 000 new workers in 2015  64 000 in 2035 More than 1 million in 20 years 20th March, 2017
  16. 16. 20th March, 2017 Ségou, Mali primaire industrie commerce service 1987 2009 Failure of industrialization, development of services and return to agriculture (2011; conflict)
  17. 17. Job creation projections in Ségou • 1,000,000 jobs to be created between now and 2035 • In 2012, 84% of jobs were in the primary sector (agriculture, livestock, forestry) • What will the sources of employment be in 2035? – In 2012, there were close to 85,000 non-agricultural jobs – In 2035 : • Agricultural production • Agri-activities (downstream, upstream) • Rural salaried workforce • Others?… 20th March, 2017
  18. 18. Senegal river delta • Agribusiness is dynamic and has recently accelerated • What is the potential for job creation according to the agricultural models? 20th March, 2017
  19. 19. WAF Senhuile 20th March, 2017
  20. 20. Senhuile • Senegalese and Italian capital has been invested in 2010 and then in 2012 • 26,000 and then 10,000 ha have been allocated, 1150 cultivated in 2016 (maize, rice, soya) • High degree of mechanisation • Salaried workforce of 180 (25 DK, 70 security…) • Uncertain future (areas, crops, jobs…) 20th March, 2017
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  22. 22. WAF • Created in 2011 – UK/RSA capital • Modest size and return (200 ha + 200 ha/RSE) • Market gardening for export (onions, radishes) • Model firmly based on local employment • A success story, PDIDAS 20th March, 2017
  23. 23. WAF 20th March, 2017
  24. 24. 20th March, 2017 CSS SCL SOCAS GDS CASL WAF STS Temey Agro Ferlo Gomme Salariés temporaires 4,700 2,000 1,000 724 154 165 120 61 9 Salariés permanents 2,000 480 399 344 130 78 11 2 5 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Salariés temporaires Salariés permanents
  25. 25. 20th March, 2017 JérémyBourgoin,2017,CIRAD/ISRA Senhuile : mechanised system, 0.13 jobs/ha (including 45% security…) Family farms average: 0.78 permanent jobs and 2.53 temporary jobs per ha. 13,000 farms (Dagana department).
  26. 26. Toward a new Rural (Territorial) Development paradigm… 1. Governance 2. Multisectorial approaches 3. Infrastructures 4. Urban/rural linkages 5. Inclusive policies 6. Gender 7. Demographic driver 8. Sustainability (based on OCDE, 2016) 20th March, 2017
  27. 27. Thank you for your attention 20th March, 2017

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