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TTIP: Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: Trans-Atlantic Perceptions

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Brunswick Insight is pleased to announce our proprietary polling and analysis of Trans-Atlantic public opinion on international trade and TTIP, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. The analysis includes results from our polling among US Policy Elites and analysis of the public opinion on this issue.

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TTIP: Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: Trans-Atlantic Perceptions

  1. 1. TTIP: Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Trans-Atlantic Perceptions Robert Moran December 2014
  2. 2. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 2 Methodology Who we surveyed U.S. readers of Politico, PoliticoPro, The Hill, Roll Call, Washington Post, Washington Times, National Journal and Congressional Quarterly. How many people we surveyed 300 How we surveyed them Targeted SpeedRead online data collection Margin of error ±5.6% at the 95% confidence interval Sources
  3. 3. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 3
  4. 4. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 4 Support for TTIP There is both bipartisan and transatlantic support for a free trade agreement “…This potentially groundbreaking partnership would deepen those ties. It would increase exports, decrease barriers to trade and investment. As part of broader growth strategies in both our economies, it would support hundreds of thousands of jobs on both sides of the ocean.” – President Barack Obama “I’ve got a lot of members who believe that international trade agreements are a winner for America. And the President and I discussed that right before I came over here. And I think he’s interested in moving forward. I said, send us trade agreements. We’re anxious to take a look at them.” – Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell “The European Union and the USA already have a dense network of free trade agreements with third countries and are currently engaged in negotiations on several more agreements. Now we must and will manage to reach agreement with one another putting in place a transatlantic free trade zone.” – Chancellor Angela Merkel “… Integrating two of the most developed, most sophisticated, and certainly the largest economies in the world can never be an easy task, but we will find convincing answers to legitimate concerns. We will find solutions to thorny issues. We will keep our eyes on the prize, and we’ll succeed. ” – Fmr. European Commission President José Manuel Barroso
  5. 5. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 5 Voices of Skepticism Opposition to TTIP has been expressed by labor and environmental activists, and in the media "The aim of this deal is to secure and expand the privileges of companies and investors." – Director of Public Citizen's Global Trade Watch Lori Wallach “I am concerned that standards in all sectors will be loosened. Consumer protection in particular, is an area where the US and the EU are worlds apart.” – Green MEP Martin Häusling
  6. 6. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 6 34% 28% 28% 21% 17% 14% 7% 39% 33% 31% 27% 32% 38% 33% 9% 8% 8% 4% 6% 1% 7% 17% 31% 33% 49% 45% 47% 52% Skeptical Citizens In contrast to the elite perspective, audiences in advanced economies are skeptical of trade’s impact on wages No difference Increase Don’t know/ refused Decrease Question: Does trade with other countries lead to an increase in the wages of (survey nationality) workers, a decrease in wages, or does it not make a difference? Source: Pew, Faith and Skepticism about Trade, Foreign Investment, September 2014 United States GermanyFrance United Kingdom ItalyGreece Spain
  7. 7. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 7 34% 18% 16% 54% 57% 47% 3% 3% 4% 7% 18% 27% 2% 5% 7% Some Public Skepticism of Chinese Trade, Especially in the U.S. National audiences show less strong support for trade, but it is trade with China that garners opposition Americans Germans 26% 22% 16% 45% 50% 35% 6% 9% 4% 14% 13% 25% 9% 5% 20% Somewhat badSomewhat good Very bad/BadVery good/Good Don’t know/refused Other Countries Other Countries European Union China ChinaThe United States What do you think about growing trade between the United States and …? Source: Pew, Support in Principle for U.S.-EU Trade Pact, April 2014
  8. 8. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 8 Americans Generally Supportive of International Trade While Americans do think trade is good, this approval has slipped from former highs and lags behind elites 26% 39% 35% 45% 50% 44% 6% 4% 6%14% 4% 14% 9% 3% 1% Somewhat bad Somewhat good Very bad Very good Don’t know/refused/ Unsure Republican Policy Elites Democratic Policy Elites Americans * What do you think about growing trade between the U.S. and other countries? * Source: Pew, Support in Principle for U.S.-EU Trade Pact, April 2014
  9. 9. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 9 34% 54% 3% 7% 2% Positive German Attitudes Towards Trade German opinion on trade is more positive than Americans, and is closer to American elite opinion 26% 39% 35% 45% 50% 44% 6% 4% 6%14% 4% 14% 9% 3% 1% Somewhat bad Somewhat good Very bad Very good Don’t know/refused/ Unsure ** Republican Policy Elites Democratic Policy Elites Americans Germans * What do you think about growing trade between the U.S. and other countries? What do you think about growing trade between Germany and other countries? * Source: Pew, Support in Principle for U.S.-EU Trade Pact, April 2014 23% 9%
  10. 10. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 10 Crowded Media Environment
  11. 11. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 11 67% 50% 33% 32% 30% 25% 37% 40% 30% 35% 5% 11% 13% 22% 16% 4% 2% 13% 16% 19% 71% 56% 41% 34% 30% 24% 35% 35% 29% 26% 3% 7% 17% 14% 20% 1% 2% 7% 23% 24% Republican Policy Elites Democratic Policy Elites Some – I know about this story, but do not know all of the details A little – I have heard of this story A lot – I could explain this story in great detail Nothing – I have never heard of this story Solid Awareness, But Little Clarity Around Trade Initiatives Elite audiences are aware of TTIP and other trade initiatives, though it lags behind many other news stories Please indicate if you have seen, read, or heard about the following news stories over the past 60 days. TTIP: Trans-Atlantic Perceptions, December 2014
  12. 12. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 12 35% 36% 36% 35% 44% 37% 44% 34% 6% 8% 3% 5% 14% 13% 13% 22% 1% 6% 3% 5% U.S. Policy Elites and Trade Trade with other nations is viewed positively, though this is a soft sentiment; Republicans show more opposition 39% 36% 35% 35% 50% 54% 49% 40% 4% 4% 6% 5% 4% 5% 6% 15% 3% 2% 4% 5% Republican Policy Elites Democratic Policy Elites Other Countries Other Countries European Union 20+ Countries 20+ Countries China ChinaEuropean Union *Full question listed “Australia, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Israel, Jordan, Mexico, Singapore, South Korea, and many others.” * * Somewhat badSomewhat good Very bad/BadVery good/Good Unsure What do you think about growing trade between the United States and …? TTIP: Trans-Atlantic Perceptions, December 2014
  13. 13. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 13 Partisan Split on Trade Elite and National Democrats have consistently shown a higher level of support for free trade than Republicans Opinion on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (% Saying “Good”) Republican Policy Elites Democratic Policy Elites 84% 79% 60% 44% “Free trade agreements like NAFTA, policies of the WTO…” (% Saying “Good”) 47% 40% 43% 28% * * Elites National Adults **Source: Pew, Americans Are of Two Minds on Trade, November 2010 November 2009 October 2010 November 2009 October 2010 ** ** * Source: Pew, Support in Principle for U.S.-EU Trade Pact, April 2014
  14. 14. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 14 Colonial, Jacksonian, & Pre-Civil War America: Whigs support protectionist tariff. Democratic Party supports low tariff, just enough to fund government. Civil War: Republican Party replaces Whig party 1870s to 1890s: Republican Party supports protectionist Tariff and generally opposes free trade – popular with industrial workers and monopolistic “Trusts.” 1913: Creation of income tax makes tariff less important for funding federal government Post WW2 – Cold War: Republican Party backs Free Trade NAFTA on…: Republican Party base voters, many blue collar white men, revert to skepticism on trade deals based on concerns about sovereignty and middle class jobs. Back to the Future?
  15. 15. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 15 Standard Republican Cartoon Against Pro-Trade Democrats in the 1880s-1890s Tariff Act of 1890 (McKinley Tariff) Wilson-Gorman Tariff Act of 1894 President Cleveland (D ) President McKinley (R )
  16. 16. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 16 Attitudes Towards Specific Trade Agreements Support for TTIP is positive but elites have less negative sentiment than the general populations Support for Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership 84% 79% 7% 8% 10% 13% 85% 76% 6% 7% 8% 17% Republican Policy Elites Democratic Policy Elites Americans Germans 53% 55% 28% 20% 20% 25% Support for Trans-Pacific Partnership Very bad/Somewhat bad/BadVery good/Somewhat good/Good Don’t know/refused/ Unsure/Neither ** * Source: Pew, Support in Principle for U.S.-EU Trade Pact, April 2014
  17. 17. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 17 American View of NAFTA The belief that NAFTA has been good for the U.S. has never been a majority view of the American population 44% 40% 35% 44% 43% 35% 21% 20% 17% 21% 25% 21% 35% 40% 48% 35% 32% 44% In general, do you think that free trade agreements like NAFTA and the policies of the World Trade Organization, have been a good thing or a bad thing for the United States? December 2006 November 2007 April 2008 April 2009 November 2009 October 2010 Source: Pew, Americans Are of Two Minds on Trade, November 2010 Don’t Know Bad for U.S. Good for U.S. Americans
  18. 18. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 18 Elite U.S. Support for Trade Deal Items Elites support most of the specific items that would exist in a trade deal 43% 34% 37% 40% 40% 40% 6% 6% 4% 9% 15% 14% 1% 4% 5% Somewhat oppose Somewhat support Strongly oppose Strongly support Don’t know/refused/ Unsure 29% 26% 31% 45% 42% 35% 6% 5% 5% 15% 17% 22% 5% 10% 7% Making American and European standards for products and services as similar as possible. Making American and European standards for products and services as similar as possible. Removing all restrictions on investment between the U.S. and the European Union. Removing all restrictions on investment between the U.S. and the European Union. Removing all duties that increase the price of goods imported from the European Union. Removing all duties that increase the price of goods imported from the European Union. Republican Policy Elites Democratic Policy Elites Here are some things that may be part of a free trade agreement with the European Union. Please tell me if you support or oppose this item: TTIP: Trans-Atlantic Perceptions, December 2014 Republican opposition is higher on all trade deal items.
  19. 19. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 19 Here are some things that may be part of a free trade agreement with the European Union. Please tell me if you support or oppose this item: Making American and European standards for products and services as similar as possible. 35% 12% 15% 41% 27% 26% 6% 13% 10% 11% 29% 29% 7% 20% 20% Somewhat oppose Somewhat support Strongly oppose Strongly support Don’t know/refused/ Unsure 13% 7% 12% 32% 34% 26% 4% 6% 5% 39% 41% 47% 12% 12% 10% Making American and European standards for products and services as similar as possible. Removing all restrictions on investment between the U.S. and the European Union. Removing all restrictions on investment between the U.S. and the European Union. Removing all duties that increase the price of goods imported from the European Union. Removing all duties that increase the price of goods imported from the U.S. The Details: German Concern for Trade Deal Items Despite support for free trade, there is more opposition to specific trade items from Germans than Americans Americans Germans Source: Pew, Support in Principle for U.S.-EU Trade Pact, April 2014
  20. 20. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 20 The View from America: Possible Problem Areas A majority of U.S. Policy Elites think that data, food, and the environment will be the most difficult elements to negotiate 57% 56% 58% 55% 52% 53% 48% 47% 43% 44% Intellectual property Which of the following issue areas do you think will be DIFFICULT for the United States and the European Union to reach an agreement over? Republican Policy Elites Democratic Policy Elites Food safetyData privacy Environmental safety Auto safety TTIP: Trans-Atlantic Perceptions, December 2014
  21. 21. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 21 Percent who trust American/European standards for… European Standards American StandardsBoth/Neither/Refused 29% 85% 22% 94% 27% 96% 33% 91% 23% 12% 11% 4% 12% 3% 12% 5% 49% 3% 67% 2% 60% 2% 55% 4% Food safetyData privacy Environmental safety Auto safety Whose Standards? Americans Germans Source: Pew, Support in Principle for U.S.-EU Trade Pact, April 2014
  22. 22. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 22 The Washington Context
  23. 23. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 23 Low Expectations in Washington and Wall Street Limiting the federal budget deficit 25% 28% 23% 23% 20% 20% 18% 16% 14% 17% 16% 13% 18% 13% 15% 14% 10% 12% Raising the debt limit Comprehensive immigration reform Allowing U.S. crude oil exports Reforming Social Security Addressing the student debt issue Comprehensive corporate tax reform Blocking companies from relocating their headquarters overseas for tax purposes Free trade agreements with Europe Comprehensive individual income tax reform Legalizing marijuana Large-scale infrastructure investments Free trade agreements with Asia Ending national Common Core education standards An end to quantitative easing Consumer privacy protection Creating a national exchange for greenhouse gas emitters Improving access to H1-B visas for highly- skilled working professionals 39% 41% 24% 25% 20% 17% 24% 19% 16% 17% 21% 22% 18% 19% 9% 14% 9% 8% 35% 23% 25% 23% 24% 21% 16% 21% 25% 21% 15% 15% 13% 13% 15% 6% 15% 9% Comprehensive immigration reform is seen as being twice as likely as a special deal for highly-skilled workers seeking H1-B visas. Republican Policy Elites Democratic Policy Elites Financial Elites
  24. 24. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 24 Partisan Gridlock Elites forecast disagreement between the President and Congress Over the next two years, which ONE of the following do you believe is likely to happen? 44% 38% 46% 37% 50% 36% 19% 12% 18% The President and Congress will generally work together to pass legislation that helps to rebuild trust in both parties The President and Congress will generally spend most of their time fighting along partisan lines to build up an advantage for the 2016 presidential elections The President and Congress will generally fight over policy, but find a few opportunities to pass popular legislation Republican Policy Elites Democratic Policy Elites Financial Elites
  25. 25. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 25 Alternative Messages Supporting NATO Setting Global Standards That Promote Western Values
  26. 26. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 26 Open Questions • Is time running out to pass trade agreements as citizen skepticism rises? • Will support for trade increase as the economy improves in the U.S.? • Can Republicans navigate the internal tensions within their party on free trade? • Can we keep the discussion on the benefits, and not the details?
  27. 27. © BRUNSWICK | 2014 | 27 Summary • The window for a deal may be shrinking. • Elites are more supportive than citizens. • Details are a communications challenge. • Low expectations for a quick deal before 2016. • Partisan gridlock in Washington, DC, is lowering expectations. • Is Republican skepticism toward free trade a historical reversion to a traditional (pre-World War Two) focus on protecting domestic industry and focusing on the Western Hemisphere?
  28. 28. Robert Moran Partner, Brunswick Insight Washington, DC P: +1.202.393.7337 E: RMoran@BrunswickGroup.com

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