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Nrf13 brasil varejo conectando a indústria ao cliente


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Nrf13 brasil varejo conectando a indústria ao cliente

  1. 1. 1/14/2013 The Ultimate Retail Supply Chain MachineConnecting the Consumer to the Factory Our Panel • Larry Smith, SVP Planning & Replenishment, West  Marine • Brian Kirkpatrick, NA MDO PS Director ‐ Commercial  Operations, Procter & Gamble • Ron Volpe, Customer VP Supply Chain, Kraft Foods • André Martin, Co‐Founder, Red Prairie Flowcasting  Group Agenda • New VICS CPFR Guideline • New Method Retail Demand Planning • Connecting the Consumer to the Factory • Review Case Studies and Benefits • Best Practice Recommendations • Roadmap to Integrated Business Planning 1
  2. 2. 1/14/2013 Focus on the Consumer“Meet the real needs of consumers”• Aligns supply chain partners• Encourages change and innovation• Appeals to our values, our identities“Cut costs”• No appeal to values or positive identities• Circle the wagons; protect fiefdoms• Resist change and innovation Consumer Focused Supply ChainsConsumer Demand Driven• Design, make, procure and deliver what consumers  want• Understand forces shaping demand and coordinationForward Planning• Supply chain coordination requires an extended  planning horizon• Forward plans operationalize emerging strategies Forward Planning: Options and Costs 2
  3. 3. 1/14/2013 Completing the Information Link in the Supply Chain • Every supply chain is two supply chains. • The physical supply chain: the movement of materials and products from supplier to manufacturer to retailer. • The information supply chain: the movement of consumer demand information from retailer to manufacturer to material supplier. • Retail consumer demand information supply chain is disconnected without the time-phased forward planning processes of store level Distribution Resource Planning (DRP) or as it is often called Flowcasting. Shortcomings of Most Retail  Replenishment Systems Factory MDC RDC Store• Most store level systems are execution, not planning systems. They provide no insight into future ordering needs.• Most retail DC & manufacturing DC systems base forecasts on historical shipments – completely disconnected from store level sales or inventories. They provide no insight into future store ordering needs.• Without store level DRP (Flowcasting) the manufacturer has no insight into the retailer’s future demand requirements. Why not exclusively focus on POS for Planning? POS Analytics Alone Do Not Provide Forward Visibility to: • Promotions • Product introductions and retirements • New stores and store closings • Changes in shelf configurations • Changes in store inventory levels • Presentation of flow method planning • Distribution network changes 3
  4. 4. 1/14/2013 Connecting the Consumer to the Factory Store Retail DC Manufacturer DC Factory Forecast Calculation Calculation Calculation A Single Store Level Sell Through Forecast • Integrated Business Model of the retail supply chain • Jointly manage this Business Model to “A Single Set of Numbers" • Complete visibility throughout entire retail supply chainOnce the consumer is connected to the factory every warehousing, transportation& selling activity that takes place from the time products leave the factory to thetime we put it on the shelf if subject to review & change for the better. Source: Adopted from Red Prairie Collaborative Flowcasting Group, LLC. Enabling Retailer/ Manufacturer Store Planning, S&OP & IBP  Retailer’s Sales & Operations Plan - HD TV Category Supplier Schedules Supplier’s Sales & Operations Plan Demand Planning Segmentation Level 1, 2 & 3 Visibility CPG can see their own network Customer maintains visibility of their network. LEVEL 1 Today Planning CPG plans their network Customer plans their network Execution CPG creates internal network replenishment Customer creates inbound WH order orders placement. CPG begins to see Supply Chain information beyond its WH network. Customer Store & WH Visibility inventory, WH & and POS information.LEVEL 2 Utilizing down Customer plans orders to the store, but more Planning CPG plans their network stream visibility allow. Data CPG creates internal network replenishment Customer creates inbound WH order Execution order placement. CPG begins to see Supply Chain information beyond its WH network. Customer Store & WH Visibility inventory, WH & ordering rules, Network info., POS & Customer Forecast info. LEVEL 3 End to End CPG begins planning internal network and orders from them into Customers Customer plans Planning Integration WH. orders to the store. Customer creates Execution CPG creates internal network replenishment and Customers WH orders. store orders. 4
  5. 5. 1/14/2013Retailer/Manufacturer – IBP & Gap Analysis Gap Analysis Retailer/Supplier • Questions to Answer: 1000 Annual Integrated Business Plan – Why the gap – which  products, which  800 stores…? Volume – What actions do we  600 jointly need to take  to close the gaps…? 400 • Best Practice:  – VICS Roadmap to  200 Flowcasting’s Day To Day Operating Plan IBP’s : The  8 Step  Updated daily based on consumer sales Collaborative Process   & reviewed monthly 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Period Supplier driven Flowcasting Case Study Benefits Kraft and Sam’s Club In 2007, Kraft implemented a Flowcasting  system to manage  replenishment for dozens of DCs and hundreds of stores for Sam’s  Club, with the following results: • The average absolute error of the order forecast was 2.3 days or  7.7%. – Led to 15%+ Lag 5 forecast accuracy • On‐going End to End collaboration driving: – In stock increases, lower Supply chain inventory  – Lower warehousing, transportation and obsolescence costs. • 2012 – Increased focus on consumption forecasts driving  shipment forecast accuracy over 70% Retailer driven Store Level DRP  Case Study Benefits West Marine In 2001, West Marine implemented a store level DRP system  and established a large scale CPFR (collaboration) program  with over 150 vendors with the following results: • Guaranteed order forecasts to suppliers. • Audited supplier shipping to well‐communicated goals. • Exceeded 25% profit growth for three years. • Integrated an acquired company in 30 days. 5
  6. 6. 1/14/2013 Retailer driven Store Level DRP Case Study Benefits Lowe’s and Black and Decker In 2007, Lowe’s implemented a store level DRP system for all  products replenishing through its DCs, with the following  results with Black and Decker: • In stock improvement (from 92% to a consistent 98%). • Significant reduction in excess inventory. • 10% improvement in forecast accuracy. • Decreased airfreight and other expediting costs. More Store Level DRP to Come Walmart In 2009, Walmart announced to its suppliers that it was  implementing a store level DRP system with the  intention of modeling the supply chain with its trading  partners and providing supplier schedules.Source: 2012 VICS Guideline: The Ultimate Retail Supply Chain Machine: Connecting the Consumer to the Factory Store level DRP (Flowcasting)  The  critical missing link • Store level DRP (Flowcasting) is now proven and practical. • Manufacturers already have DC level DRP systems, so store level DRP completes the information supply chain. • By linking their DRP capabilities, supply chain partners will create an integrated model of the supply chain based on forward plans of consumer purchases and distribution plans. • The result: retailers and manufacturers gain improved control of their business. • The synchronization of forecasts across the supply chain minimizes, if not eliminates, the bullwhip effect. 6
  7. 7. 1/14/2013Value to Retailers and their Trading Partners For Trading Partners In the CPG Industry the single largest cost of doing business is the cost of production On average It represents 45% + of every dollar sold to the consumer Source: Flowcasting The Retail Supply Chain (appendix G) Best Practice Recommendations • Manufacturers execute to retailer’s supplier schedule. • Manufacturers protect supply as if the supplier  schedules  were actual orders. • Retailers will build trust with a track record of forecast  accuracy. • Retailer’s orders will respect near term product supply. • Manufacturers will not be left with excess finished goods  by building to forecast. • Retailers and manufacturers value the relationship and  capabilities of partners and work together to lower costs  over time. Roadmap to Integrated Business Planning • Store Level DRP (Flowcasting) provides rapid and  accurate replanning for retail supply chains. • A clear multi‐year strategic plan that is replanned in  each monthly S&OP cycle. • Senior managers and executives become the process  owners and drive quarterly business reviews. • Cross‐functional  reviews link daily business planning   & execution to strategic goals. 7
  8. 8. 1/14/2013 How can you learn more?••• Join GS1US/VICS CPFR Work Group• Attend the CSCMP Seminar Series on the VICS  Ultimate Guideline• Read Flowcasting bookWhat you will find in the Guidelines“Ultimate” Guideline:• Explains the methodology of Store Level DRP• Integrating S&OP with Store Level DRP• A roadmap for getting started• The basic requirements of a store level DRP system“Linking CPFR and S&OP” (= IBP)• Process management with CPFR and S&OP• An extended case study of Lowe’s/Whirlpool• A maturity model for S/C transformation to IBP Questions? 8